巴西政府拟重分配200亿雷亚尔预算，为卢拉选举承诺融资

Matheus Rosa Ribeiro Leo Pinheiro/Valor Facing criticism from fiscal experts and political opponents over a wave of measures announced by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of the election, the federal government plans to submit a revised 2027 budget proposal to Congress, reallocating about R$20 billion to fund its latest initiatives without raising the overall spending ceiling. In an interview with Valor, Planning and Budget Minister Bruno Moretti outlined the adjustments needed to accommodate an increase in cash-transfer program Bolsa Família benefits, the expansion of the Pé-de-Meia student savings program, the Desenrola debt-relief initiative and Pix MEI--a new program offering grants of up to R$5,000 to individual microentrepreneurs--among other measures. Lula rolls out voter-friendly measures ahead of Brazil runoff Liberal Party’s fiscal plans raise concerns over education funding Brazil needs more than new fiscal rules to curb debt, study says Moretti said the inclusion of weight-loss drugs in Brazil’s public healthcare system, known as SUS, would be covered by existing health allocations, requiring no additional budget reshuffling. A proposal to make public transportation free on weekends, meanwhile, would depend on an agreement with Congress to redirect mandatory parliamentary earmarks. The minister said the administration has no further measures planned and believes it has struck a balance. “If we go any further, we’ll have gone too far,” he said. Fiscal impact The government estimates that measures announced during Lula’s reelection campaign could have a combined fiscal impact of R$53.6 billion in 2027, including R$45.7 billion in additional spending and R$7.9 billion in lost revenue. The figures remain preliminary. The Planning and Budget Ministry maintains that the measures can be absorbed without changing either the spending ceiling or the primary fiscal balance target. For that reason, Moretti prefers to describe only the roughly R$20 billion requiring reallocations from other budget items as a direct budgetary impact. Fiscal experts dispute that interpretation. The government expects to offset much of the new spending through revisions to mandatory expenditure estimates, among other adjustments. A financial institution’s estimates obtained by Valor, however, point to a significantly greater fiscal impact than the government’s R$53.6 billion projection. Public finance specialists also warn that the reallocations will squeeze uncommitted discretionary spending — including operating costs and investment, over which the government has greater flexibility — and make expenditure restraint more difficult in subsequent years. Moretti said the government’s baseline scenario is to preserve the 2027 primary fiscal target, aiming for a surplus of 0.5% of gross domestic product, as required under Brazil’s fiscal framework. The administration also intends to maintain the R$10.2 billion fiscal cushion included in the proposed budget, although the minister acknowledged that this margin could eventually shrink. After accounting for legally permitted deductions, the 2027 budget proposal projects a primary surplus of R$83.4 billion, compared with the target midpoint of R$73.2 billion. Without those deductions, the projected effective primary surplus falls to R$18.6 billion. That surplus, however, would not be sufficient to prevent public debt from rising. During Lula’s third term, Brazil’s gross general government debt has climbed by more than 10 percentage points of GDP, reaching 82.9% in August, compared with 71.7% at the end of 2022. Bolsa Família increase The largest source of pressure on the budget is the increase in Bolsa Família benefits, estimated to cost R$22.7 billion in 2027. Moretti believes at least R$10 billion can be covered by savings within mandatory expenditure projections, including roughly R$6 billion from Bolsa Família itself, following reviews of the program implemented this year. The government has also identified room in spending forecasts for pensions, the Continuous Cash Benefit (BPC), which supports low-income elderly people and people with disabilities, and federal personnel costs. That would leave approximately R$12 billion without identified funding, requiring reallocations from other budget areas. Student assistance Another R$2 billion in reallocations would be needed to expand the Pé-de-Meia program for secondary school students and create a version for university students. At full implementation, the programs are expected to cost R$6.9 billion and R$4.6 billion annually, respectively, broadly in line with market estimates. The difference, Moretti argued, is that private-sector analysts assume the full annual costs will be incurred in 2027, while the government plans a gradual rollout. For next year, the ministry's preliminary estimates provide for about R$2 billion per program, totaling R$4 billion. Of that amount, Moretti said approximately R$2 billion could be accommodated within the constitutionally mandated minimum education budget. Planned education spending already exceeds that floor by about R$2.4 billion. In addition, some student assistance grants currently provided by federal universities and institutes could be replaced by the new university-level Pé-de-Meia program. The remaining R$2 billion would have to come from reallocations elsewhere in the budget. Free weekend transportation The government’s calculations also include R$12 billion for a proposal to make public transportation free on weekends, although its estimates range from R$8 billion to R$12 billion. The administration intends to submit a proposed constitutional amendment to Congress next week establishing a funding mechanism based on parliamentary earmarks. The plan is to use part of the R$44.8 billion allocated in the 2027 budget proposal to mandatory individual and caucus earmarks, while preserving funds designated for healthcare. The share that would be redirected to public transportation remains subject to negotiations with Congress, which will have a more right-leaning composition from 2027. Moretti described the initiative as the first step in a broader discussion Lula intends to pursue on improving the allocation and effectiveness of parliamentary budget earmarks. Debt relief and healthcare The Desenrola debt-relief initiative would require another R$5 billion in reallocations within discretionary spending. That amount includes roughly R$600 million for Desenrola MEI, targeting individual microentrepreneurs. Pix MEI would account for approximately R$1 billion in 2027, completing the roughly R$20 billion in spending reallocations. The inclusion of weight-loss drugs in SUS, estimated to cost about R$1 billion, would not require funds to be redirected from other areas. Instead, the expense would be covered within the minimum healthcare budget, using allocations already designated for medical supplies. Revenue projections On the revenue side, the budget proposal already incorporates R$1.6 billion in lost receipts resulting from an increase in the annual turnover ceiling for individual microentrepreneurs, known as MEIs. Additional revenue losses are estimated at R$6.3 billion, including R$5.3 billion from lower taxes on online betting and approximately R$1 billion from the forgiveness of MEI debts. Those losses could be accommodated through revisions to economic assumptions, including oil prices and inflation, without necessarily requiring equivalent offsets. In the case of online betting, the government also believes it may be able to reduce spending linked to that budget category, limiting the net fiscal impact. Economic assumptions The updated budget proposal will incorporate a lower GDP growth forecast than the roughly 2.5% estimate used in the original submission, potentially reducing projected tax receipts. Other economic assumptions have yet to be finalized and could move in the opposite direction. Moretti pointed to oil prices as one example. Brent crude at around $80 a barrel, compared with the $71 assumed in the original budget proposal, would increase oil-related government revenue. Under a scenario of Brent trading at $80, the minister said fuel subsidies would not be necessary. He added that existing fuel subsidies are determined month by month, which is why the government has not included the expense in its 2027 projections. A major financial institution that requested anonymity, however, has included R$15.2 billion in fuel subsidies in its spending forecasts for next year. Those expenditures fall outside the fiscal framework’s spending limit but still affect the primary balance target. The institution's estimate assumes that extending the subsidy program through December could push some payments into 2027 because of the delay between the calculation of benefits by Brazil’s oil regulator, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), and the government's disbursement of funds. Betting revenue losses Private-sector estimates also suggest a larger revenue impact from changes affecting online betting. The same financial institution projects R$11.2 billion in lost revenue in 2027. Its calculation accounts for some tax receipts being recovered as consumers shift spending toward other goods and services, while also factoring in the possibility that betting activity will migrate to the untaxed illegal market. Moretti defended the government's lower estimate, arguing that it already assumes some decline in betting volumes as a result of restrictions the administration had been introducing. Budget constraints Public finance specialists say the administration's proposals, which have been advancing with congressional support, could further restrict budget flexibility and complicate compliance with the primary fiscal target. Although the measures would not raise the overall spending ceiling, they would reduce the funds available for uncommitted discretionary expenditures, where the government has the greatest latitude. A substantial share of the new commitments, including higher Bolsa Família benefits, constitutes mandatory spending. Other initiatives, such as Pé-de-Meia, would be politically difficult to cut. The financial institution's analysis obtained by Valor puts the combined impact of federal government measures at R$87.9 billion. That is considerably above the government's R$53.6 billion estimate, mainly because of differences in the projected cost of individual measures, including online betting, and the inclusion of fuel subsidies. Market economists also warn that incorporating additional spending commitments would make it harder to contain expenditure growth in subsequent years. In particular, the measures could complicate efforts to lower the maximum permitted real growth in spending under the fiscal framework from the current 2.5% to between 1.5% and 2%, an option previously advocated by some Finance Ministry officials. “New permanent expenditures further erode the room available for uncommitted discretionary spending,” said Alexandre Andrade, director of the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), a fiscal watchdog affiliated with the Senate. Andrade said reducing the real growth limit for spending from 2.5% to 2% remains possible, but would require changes to the rules governing mandatory expenditure growth. “Otherwise, the cuts would fall on investment and operating expenses.” He also warned that the 2027 target of a primary surplus equivalent to 0.5% of GDP will face additional pressure as court-ordered government payments, known as precatórios, are gradually brought back into the fiscal target calculations. The proposed 2027 Budget Guidelines Law provides for 39.4% of those payments, or R$38.5 billion, to count toward next year’s target. Legislation allows that share to be reduced to as little as 10%, which would ease the pressure. Moretti, however, said the government is not discussing such a reduction. Election-year spending “We are witnessing an intensification of election-driven measures, something that was also prevalent in 2022,” said Matheus Rosa Ribeiro, an analyst at BRCG. He noted that the expansion of the personal income tax exemption to people earning up to R$5,000 a month was announced after months of discussion and was accompanied by offsetting measures, as would normally be expected for an initiative of that kind. “In recent days, a series of measures with a much greater impact on public finances has been rushed through discussions, just days after the submission of a budget proposal that does not include them,” Ribeiro said. “In that sense, the presence of a political budget cycle has become very clear, and institutional safeguards have been unable to restrain it.” Congressional support The push to expand spending in the final stretch before the election has found support in Congress, where proposals that had long been stalled are now advancing, said economist Alexandre Manoel of Global Intelligence and Analytics. “Putting all the blame on the executive branch doesn’t seem very rational to me, especially because it doesn’t have that much power,” Manoel said. “The prospects for reelection are weaker than they were a year ago, and he [Lula] couldn’t push these proposals with such intensity.” One possible explanation discussed among analysts is the weakening of the Centrão, Brazil’s loosely organized bloc of centrist parties, which lost ground to the right in elections for the Lower House and Senate. Against that backdrop, centrist lawmakers may have become more motivated to respond to voters' demands and demonstrate that they can deliver concrete results. In a statement, the Finance Ministry said the government would submit the necessary budget adjustments to Congress and that they “will be made consistent with the primary fiscal balance target and the fiscal framework.”