巴西各州上半年投资429亿雷亚尔创新高，基建PPP放量中资可关注

Samuel Kinoshita Gabriel Reis/Valor Combined investment by Brazil’s states and Federal District (Brasília) hit a record in the first half of this election year, reaching R$42.9 billion. The total was up 40.6% in real terms from the same period of 2025 and 13.9% above the previous high set in the first six months of 2022, when the current governors were elected. The figures are even higher when financial investments — a budget category that states often also regard as investment — are included. Together, the two types of spending reached R$59.6 billion in the first half of 2026, up 55.5% from 2025 and 43.3% from 2022. Investment alone rose in real terms in 22 of the 26 states compared with the first half of 2025. Sixteen posted growth of more than 30%, while 12 exceeded the nationwide average of 40.6%. National polarization shapes state races, study finds Popular governors rarely lose reelection. Presidents are different Brazil central government posts R$10.8bn primary surplus in July The 10 fastest-growing states, in order, were Rio Grande do Norte, Tocantins, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Sergipe, Pernambuco, Ceará, São Paulo, Alagoas and Santa Catarina. In absolute terms, São Paulo and Minas Gerais led, with R$4.2 billion each, followed by Paraná at R$3.9 billion. Santa Catarina invested R$3.4 billion, just above Bahia’s R$3.3 billion. São Paulo stands out even more in financial investments. The category totaled R$16.7 billion across the states and Federal District, of which São Paulo alone accounted for R$10.9 billion. Of that amount, R$6.6 billion represented state contributions to public-private partnerships (PPPs), mainly for transportation infrastructure projects including the subway system, the Rodoanel beltway and the Santos-Guarujá tunnel. The total also includes about R$1 billion for housing, of which R$700 million was invested through funds and had been classified as regular investment until 2025, said Samuel Kinoshita, São Paulo’s finance secretary. All figures refer to the first half of the year. Kinoshita said the 2026 amount should be seen as the culmination of a process of rising investment. Election boost Alberto Borges, an economist and partner at Aequus Consultoria, which compiled the data, expects 2026 to become a new full-year record for state investment. He sees the election cycle as one driver, with spending supported by surpluses accumulated in previous years and by borrowing. Luiz Paulo Budal, Paraná’s acting finance secretary, also pointed to the electoral calendar, which traditionally brings higher state investment. “Paraná has pursued an expansionary policy since 2023, raising its investment levels and managing to deliver record figures.” Budal said first-half investment reached all-time highs in several areas, including urban development, agriculture — particularly a rural roads program — transportation, education, health and public safety. The pace at which projects are actually being carried out has also accelerated more recently, he said. “Until 2024, Paraná would commit funds for investment but had more difficulty actually executing the spending,” he recalled. Today, the state completes the execution of about 75% of the funds it commits, another record for its investment program, Budal said. Paraná is expected to set a full-year investment record in 2026. Spending already executed should reach between R$8 billion and R$8.5 billion, well above the R$5.9 billion seen in 2025. Climate-related disruptions that could delay construction are among the risks, he said. Pandemic legacy The current annual record for investment by the states and Federal District was set in 2022. In the first half of that year, spending surged 167.9% in real terms. Extraordinary federal transfers to address the effects of the pandemic lifted state revenues in 2020. In subsequent years, collections from the ICMS state value-added tax were also buoyant, rising 21.8% in the first half of 2021 from a year earlier. After falling 7.1% in 2020, ICMS revenue rebounded as economic activity recovered from the worst of the health crisis and prices rose sharply. Those factors, combined with restrictions on payroll spending that remained in place through the end of 2021, helped pave the way for record investment in 2022. Borges said stronger finances also allowed governors to improve their so-called “Capag” ratings, a measure of debt repayment capacity assigned by the National Treasury Secretariat (STN) that works much like a credit rating. Better scores have made it easier for states to obtain financing backed by federal government guarantees. In 2020, only 10 of the 26 states and the Federal District had an A or B Capag rating, which qualifies them for federally guaranteed borrowing, Treasury data show. By 2025, that number had risen to 21. “The improvement in Capag ratings opened the door to the credit market for the states, and investment volumes increased,” Borges said. Borrowing surge Revenue from credit operations reached R$26.5 billion in the first half of 2026, up 52.4% from the same period of 2025, which was already a relatively high comparison base, Aequus data show. Such revenue had reached R$17.4 billion in the first half of last year, an 81.4% increase from R$9.6 billion in the same period of 2024. Borges said investment has also been supported by financial reserves accumulated during earlier periods of stronger revenue. Despite the economic slowdown, current revenue across the states grew 3.6% in real terms in the first half from a year earlier, after rising 2.3% in the same comparison in 2025. Current spending also accelerated, climbing 4.4% this year after a 3.4% increase in 2025. Payroll expenses were the main driver, rising 5.3% after gaining 1.7% a year earlier, always in real terms and for the first half. Borges said the faster growth in payroll spending in 2026 also reflects the election cycle. Aequus collected the figures from budget execution reports submitted by the states to the National Treasury. The survey considers expenditures already executed and revenues actually received. All amounts were adjusted for inflation using the IPCA consumer price index through June. Fiscal risks “The increase in state investment is surreal, and the data show that the movement has been widespread,” said Gabriel Leal de Barros, chief economist at ARX Investimentos. He said the figures offer further evidence of how state finances have changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, while also reflecting easier access to borrowing by subnational governments. From 2018 through 2021, average first-half state investment stood at R$13.6 billion, Barros noted. From 2022 through 2026, the first-half average jumped to R$34.1 billion. “The problem is that the bill for these credit operations comes later, after the grace period on the financing ends,” Barros said. That could put pressure on states with less budget flexibility, particularly as today’s investment boom creates higher mandatory spending in the future, he said. Although conditions vary widely among states, Barros said the trend raises concerns about subnational finances in the coming years. A federal administrative reform that also covers states and municipalities could therefore play an important role, he argued. São Paulo projects In São Paulo, investment and financial investments combined reached R$15.1 billion in the first half of 2026, up from R$5.8 billion in the same period of 2025. “The schedules of several projects now getting underway converged in 2026,” Kinoshita said. “When we look at the 2025 comparison base, it seems like a very sharp increase. It looked as though there had been a setback a year ago, but it was really just a matter of timing.” The much higher level of financial investments — R$10.9 billion in the first half of 2026 versus R$3.4 billion a year earlier — reflects the greater role of PPPs in the current administration’s investment portfolio, he said. The category also includes a R$2.9 billion contribution by São Paulo to the Federative Equalization Fund (FEF), required as part of the state’s participation in Propag, the federal government’s debt refinancing program for states. Rio de Janeiro’s participation in Propag likewise led to a contribution to the FEF and increased its financial investments in the first half. The state Finance Department said spending in the category rose by R$1 billion, reflecting a contribution of the same amount to the fund. Rio de Janeiro invested R$1.6 billion from January through June, up 3.6% from the same period of 2025. São Paulo’s investment this year has been financed largely with state Treasury funds, Kinoshita said. The state’s annual budget had provided for R$8.8 billion in borrowing proceeds in 2026. But because loan agreements have taken longer than expected to be finalized, only R$552 million was used in the first half. “We had the capacity to use Treasury resources where funding from credit operations had initially been planned.” The remaining borrowing resources included in the budget could still be used during the second half, Kinoshita said. Paraná funding Paraná’s investment has been financed predominantly with its own resources, including surpluses accumulated in previous years, Budal said. The state invested R$3.9 billion between January and June, a record for the period and more than double the R$1.6 billion invested in the same months of 2025, which had previously been the all-time high. “That is R$2.3 billion more in investment during the period, the largest absolute increase among the states.” The privatization of power utility Copel also brought additional funds into state coffers that are now being directed toward investment, Budal said. Those resources have allowed Paraná to increase spending even as ICMS revenue has remained nearly flat. Reflecting the performance of economic activity, the state’s collections from the tax have been broadly stable this year, he said. Aequus data show that Paraná’s ICMS revenue rose just 0.7% in real terms in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier, after gains of 2.5% in 2025 and 13.9% in 2024. Budal expects stepped-up enforcement measures to produce stronger ICMS revenue growth in the second half.