São Paulo, Rio incumbents lead governor races ahead of vote
Tarcísio de Freitas
Bob Paulino/Globo
Incumbents maintained sizable leads in the races for governor of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’s two most populous states, in new Quaest polls released Tuesday, four days before the election.
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, of the Republicans party, had 44% of voting intentions, compared with 24% for former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, of the Workers’ Party (PT).
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De Freitas was unchanged from the previous poll, released Sept. 23, while Haddad fell three percentage points from 27%. Based on the latest poll, De Freitas’s 44% would amount to more than half of valid votes once undecided, blank and invalid responses are excluded.
Undecided voters rose to 16% from 14%, while 12% said they intended to cast a blank or invalid ballot or not vote, up from 11%. Combined, those groups exceed Haddad’s share of voting intentions.
In São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral college, Quaest interviewed 1,800 people between Saturday and Monday. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction and a 95% confidence level.
In a hypothetical runoff between De Freitas and Haddad, the governor had 49% of voting intentions, unchanged from the previous poll. Haddad had 29%, compared with 30% on Sept. 23. Blank and invalid ballots and respondents who said they would not vote totaled 12%, while 10% were undecided.
Fernando Haddad
Bob Paulino/Globo
In Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), remained ahead in the race for governor, although the gap with Liberal Party (PL) candidate Douglas Ruas narrowed. Paes had 34%, down from 36% on Sept. 23, while Ruas rose to 25% from 23%.
Anthony Garotinho, of Republicans, followed with 9%, compared with 8% in the previous poll. William Siri, of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL); Juliete Pantoja, of Popular Unity (UP); Cyro Garcia, of the Unified Socialist Workers’ Party (PSTU); and Coronel Busnello, of Mission party, remained at 1%. André Marinho, of Novo, fell to zero from 1%, while Luan Monteiro, of the Workers’ Cause Party (PCO), remained at zero. Undecided voters fell to 14% from 16%, while blank and invalid ballots and respondents who said they would not vote rose to 14% from 12%.
Quaest also tested a scenario without Garotinho, whose candidacy Rio’s regional electoral court rejected but who can still appeal. In that scenario, Paes had 35%, down from 38%, while Ruas had 26%, up from 25%. Siri remained at 2%, while Garcia rose to 2% from 1%. Busnello, Marinho, Pantoja and Monteiro each had 1% in both polls. Undecided voters fell to 16% from 17%, while blank and invalid ballots and respondents who said they would not vote rose to 15% from 13%.
Quaest also tested two runoff scenarios. Against Ruas, Paes led 43% to 33%, up from 44% to 31% in the previous poll. Blank and invalid ballots, plus respondents who said they would not vote, rose to 15% from 14%, while undecided voters fell to 9% from 11%.
In a hypothetical runoff against Garotinho, Paes led 48% to 20%, up from 49% to 18% previously. Blank and invalid ballots and respondents who said they would not vote fell to 21% from 22%, while undecided voters remained at 11%.
Quaest interviewed 1,302 voters aged 16 or older in Rio between Saturday and Monday. The poll has a margin of error of three percentage points in either direction and a 95% confidence level.
Presidential race varies sharply across major states
Quaest also surveyed the presidential race in some of Brazil’s largest electoral districts. The polls showed Liberal Party Senator Flávio Bolsonaro widening his lead over President Lula, the Workers’ Party candidate seeking reelection, in São Paulo. Flávio had 36% of voting intentions in the first round, compared with 30% for Lula, a six-point gap.
In late August and early September, the two candidates had been separated by just one percentage point, within the margin of error. Lula had 29% to Flávio’s 30% in the poll released Aug. 25 and 30% to Flávio’s 31% on Sept. 8. On Sept. 23, Flávio had 34% and Lula 31%.
Among the five state-level polls released Tuesday, Lula led first-round voting intentions in two: Pernambuco, with 58% to Flávio’s 20%, and Minas Gerais, with 35% to 31%.
Flávio led in São Paulo and the Federal District, where he had 38% to Lula’s 32%, and in Rio de Janeiro, where he had 38% to Lula’s 31%.
Quaest interviewed 1,506 people in Minas Gerais. In Pernambuco, Quaest interviewed 1,302 people. In the Federal District (Brasília), Quaest interviewed 1,104 people.
