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巴西弃用碳税改推灵活合规,IMO脱碳投票定档12月4日

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Brazilian proposal could unlock emissions rules, aid ethanol

巴西在IMO咨询会议上修订航运脱碳提案,放弃碳税表述、改为灵活合规机制并推迟经济规则生效两年,以争取12月4日大会投票通过。船东已订购336艘甲醇或乙醇动力船,2030年生物燃料需求预计150亿至200亿升。

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IMO 12月4日投票若通过,巴西乙醇船用燃料市场或打开,2030年需求预计150亿至200亿升。

巴西在国际海事组织(IMO)的咨询会议上修订了其航运业脱碳提案,以提高12月大会通过的可能性。巴西代表Flavio Mathuyi表示,巴西放弃碳税一词,改为倡导灵活合规机制,并提议涉及船东经济成分的规则推迟两年生效。巴西还放弃用收益设立基金,改为将资金导向发展中国家银行。投票定于12月4日,但需特朗普批准才能推进。

巴西在国际海事组织(IMO)的咨询会议上修订了其关于航运业脱碳规则的提案,以提高该提案在12月IMO大会上获得通过的可能性。这是巴西驻该国际机构代表、IMO事务协调委员会(CCA-IMO)环境问题协调员Flavio Mathuyi的评估。他在Novacana组织的一场活动间隙接受了《Valor》采访。

去年11月的IMO会议上,脱碳法规投票被推迟,原因是美国和石油生产国反对一项对未能减排的船东设立碳税的提案。为克服阻力,巴西邀请IMO成员国在年度会议前举行会谈并修订了提案。巴西外交官放弃了碳税一词,开始倡导灵活合规机制,即船东若未达到排放目标需支付的一种经济补偿。巴西还提议,任何为船东设立经济成分的规则应从现在起两年后才生效,而在2025年的提案中该规则要求立即生效。据Mathuyi称,想法是给市场时间增加低排放燃料供应,并给船东更多减排选择。

巴西还放弃了用收益设立基金的想法。当前计划是将资金导向使用可再生燃料的国家,或需要融资建设低排放燃料供应基础设施的国家的发展银行。Mathuyi表示,美国代表团对巴西提案反应良好。然而,特朗普仍需批准该提案,才能使定于12月4日的投票推进。最糟糕的结果是根本不做决定,让航运市场对未来投资充满不确定性。我们不能忘记,2050年运营的船舶正在今天建造,他说。

船东已订购336艘可使用甲醇或乙醇的船舶,代表到2030年150亿至200亿升的需求。市场估计显示,航运业每年可能需要240亿升生物燃料。海运正在走向能源转型。转型速度将取决于预计12月批准的措辞,Mathuyi说。

原文未涉及中资企业直接影响。从传导链条看,若IMO最终采纳灵活合规机制并打开乙醇船用燃料市场,巴西作为全球主要乙醇生产国,其生物燃料产能和出口基础设施可能获得新增需求,中国船东若运营甲醇或乙醇动力船舶,或需关注未来两年规则生效窗口内的燃料采购与合规安排。但上述影响取决于12月投票结果及最终措辞,目前尚无针对中资企业的具体条款。

CBI观察:原文显示,巴西此次修订的核心是降低提案的通过门槛——弃用碳税、推迟经济规则生效、放弃基金模式,均为争取美国和石油生产国支持。数据表明,336艘已订购船舶和150亿至200亿升的2030年需求,是乙醇船用燃料市场的早期信号。CBI认为,若12月4日投票通过,巴西乙醇行业将获得一个此前不存在的出口叙事,但特朗普的批准仍是最大变量;若投票再次推迟,市场不确定性将延续,船东的投资决策可能进一步观望。

待观察:12月4日IMO投票结果及特朗普是否批准;最终措辞中灵活合规机制的具体触发条件和补偿标准;巴西乙醇行业对船用燃料需求的产能响应,以及发展银行资金流向的落地情况。

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查看原文(英语)

Brazilian proposal could unlock emissions rules, aid ethanol

A vessel is refueled with ethanol at the Port of Santos; shipowners are already ordering dual-fuel vessels Divulgação/Copersucar The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has a better chance of approving regulations governing the shipping industry’s decarbonization rules at its next general meeting, scheduled for December, after Brazil revised parts of its proposal during a consultative meeting a few weeks ago. That is the assessment of Flavio Mathuyi, Brazil’s representative to the international body and coordinator of environmental issues at the Coordinating Commission for IMO Affairs (CCA-IMO). He spoke with Valor on the sidelines of an event organized by Novacana. Brazil’s ethanol industry is closely following the IMO discussions. Market estimates indicate that the maritime industry could require 24 billion liters of biofuel a year. At its meeting last November, the IMO postponed a vote on the decarbonization regulations after the United States and oil-producing countries opposed a proposal to create a “carbon tax” for shipowners that failed to reduce emissions. To overcome that resistance, Brazil invited IMO member countries to hold talks before the annual meeting and revised its proposal. Brazilian diplomats dropped the term “carbon taxation” and began advocating a “flexible compliance mechanism,” which would function as a form of financial compensation that shipowners would have to pay if they failed to meet their emissions targets, Mathuyi explained. Brazil also proposed that any rule creating an “economic component” for shipowners take effect only two years from now. In 2025, the proposal called for the rule to take effect immediately. According to Mathuyi, the idea is to “give the market time” to increase the supply of low-emission fuels and give shipowners more options for reducing emissions. Brazil also abandoned the idea of using the proceeds to create a fund. The current plan is to direct the money to countries using renewable fuels or to development banks in countries that need financing to build infrastructure to supply low-emission fuels. Mathuyi said Brazil’s proposal was well received by the U.S. delegation. However, Trump must still endorse it for the vote scheduled for December 4 to move forward. “The worst outcome would be no decision at all, leaving the maritime market uncertain about its future investments. We cannot forget that the ships operating in 2050 are being built today,” he said. Shipowners have already placed orders for 336 vessels capable of running on methanol or ethanol, representing demand of between 15 billion and 20 billion liters by 2030. “Maritime transportation is moving toward the energy transition. The speed at which that happens will depend on the measure expected to be approved in December [at the IMO],” he said. Translation: Todd Harkin

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