巴西新书提出三大挑战，财政调整需约GDP的4%

To escape the low-growth trap, Brazil must tackle three urgent challenges: restore security, order, and confidence in institutions; make the economy more competitive and productive; and build a more efficient, fiscally balanced government, according to “Brasil sem Filtro – Desarmando a Armadilha que Ameaça a Segurança, a Eficiência e a Competitividade” (“Brazil Unfiltered—Defusing the Trap Threatening Security, Efficiency and Competitiveness”). Edited by economist Cristina Pinotti and political scientist Luiz Felipe D’Avila, the book brings together essays on issues including the dire state of public finances, the importance of improving the judicial system, ways to combat mafia organizations, and changes in the labor market. The idea was to bring together experts to address the “urgent reforms that Brazil will be forced to undertake in 2027, when the next presidential term begins.” According to Pinotti and D’Avila, the book was inspired by the Draghi Plan, a set of proposals presented in September 2024 by former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi—also a former president of the European Central Bank (ECB)—at the European Commission’s request to improve Europe’s competitiveness. The book starts from the premise that Brazil must overcome three obstacles to achieve stronger growth. “First, we need to build a safe country where compliance with the law, predictable rules, legal certainty, and the fight against violence, corruption and organized crime are treated as essential to preserving order, restoring confidence in the law and rebuilding the credibility of democratic institutions,” Pinotti and D’Avila write. The second challenge is to foster a competitive and productive economy “in a healthy business environment where free-market rules prevail, the country is integrated into international value chains and the green economy is developed—helping drive fairer and more sustainable growth.” The third is to “build an efficient government with balanced finances that is capable of providing high-quality public services.” Former Central Bank President Arminio Fraga and Insper researcher Marcos Mendes write about the severity of the public-finance situation and propose ways to address it. “We are facing strong real growth in spending, coupled with a fiscal rule that is incapable of producing the necessary restraint. Attempts to increase the already high tax burden cannot solve the problem because spending has been growing faster than revenue. At the same time, off-budget mechanisms are being widely used to increase expenditures,” they write. Fraga and Mendes emphasize that the fiscal adjustment required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio is about 4% of GDP—a substantial amount. They argue that no two or three fiscal measures can serve as a silver bullet. “A broad set of measures will be required, initially generating a fiscal impact of more than 1% of GDP, with the adjustment increasing over the years so that, within a 10-year horizon, we can achieve a primary surplus of nearly 4% of GDP.” According to them, “credible measures in that direction will be capable of convincing economic agents that the fiscal regime has changed. This will bring down today’s high interest rates, slow the pace of debt growth and put us on a virtuous path of fiscal adjustment and stronger potential growth.” The two economists say that “the fundamental starting point is to reverse the explosive trajectory of spending,” highlighting pension and social assistance expenditures, which account for half of primary spending, excluding interest payments. “It is not possible to continue adjusting Social Security pensions and benefits, as well as social assistance benefits such as the BPC, in line with the minimum wage, with substantial real increases every year,” they write. A partner at Pinotti & Schwartsman, Pinotti contributes a chapter on combating mafia organizations, a subject she has studied in recent years. She discusses organized crime, corruption, and the importance of adopting an anti-mafia law inspired by Italy’s experience. Pinotti highlights the costs of expanding mafia-style crime, including the obstruction of countries’ economic, social, and political development; increased corruption; the deterrence of private investment; the diversion of public funds, which undermines the quality of government services; and the weakening of institutions, eroding the foundations of democracy and trust among citizens. For the economist, “the country urgently needs an effective response to organized crime and to Brazil’s own mafias, the PCC and CV; the increasingly close ties between mafias and the political and economic powers in the countries where they operate are complex and troubling.” To underscore the problem’s harmful effects, she quotes Ignazio Visco, president of the Bank of Italy from 2011 to 2023: “The most important economic impact of crime lies not so much in the value generated by criminal organizations, but in the effects that persist over the long term—in what is not produced because of the distortions caused by the spread of crime.” The book also offers proposals to address legal uncertainty, which the editors say “reflects the deterioration of the rule of law, the unpredictability of law enforcement and unstable rules.” Attorney Roberto Delmanto Júnior, president of the Brazilian Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers (Abracrim), presents six proposals to improve the justice system, including changes to the criteria for nominating the prosecutor general and justices of the Supreme Court. For the prosecutor general, he advocates a constitutional requirement that the president select a nominee from a three-person shortlist drawn up by the Federal Prosecution Service, with candidates required to have 30 years of service at the institution. For Federal Supreme Court appointments, Delmanto Júnior proposes requiring nominees to have at least 30 years of professional experience and selecting them according to the following proportions: “one-third from among justices of the Superior Court of Justice; one-third from among federal and state appellate judges; one-sixth from among career members of the Public Prosecution Service; and one-sixth from among attorneys in private practice.” In another chapter, attorney André Marsiglia also discusses judicial reform. The changes would seek to increase efficiency, strengthen legitimacy, and reduce perceptions that court decisions are politicized. To achieve those goals, he first proposes restricting the Supreme Court’s jurisdiction, focusing its work on interpreting the Constitution and addressing the most consequential constitutional issues. Another measure would depoliticize the higher courts by introducing fixed, nonrenewable terms for justices and technical, transparent nomination criteria. Another proposal is to change the composition of the higher courts through uniform merit-based criteria, broader diversity of professional experience, regular turnover, and a ban on justices holding positions on different courts simultaneously. Finally, Marsiglia advocates restricting special jurisdiction for public officials, limiting it to a small group of authorities exercising important state functions. The final chapter addresses Brazil’s need for an effective and sustainable employment and income policy that encourages the creation of formal jobs and raises productivity without undermining fiscal balance. Written by André Portela of FGV-EESP, the chapter proposes changes in five areas: promoting formal employment, vocational training and certification, job placement services, the worker protection system, and savings programs for self-employed workers and microentrepreneurs. Translation: Todd Harkin