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EDP暂停巴西风电光伏新项目,电力削减成中资可再生能源投资最大障碍

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Power curtailment is a challenge in Brazil, EDP says

葡萄牙电力公司EDP因电力削减问题暂停巴西新增风电和太阳能项目,巴西政府承诺赔偿超30亿雷亚尔但未解决根本瓶颈,在巴中资新能源开发商面临投资决策不确定性。

为什么值得关注

EDP暂停新项目直接反映电力削减对巴西可再生能源投资前景的实质性威胁,影响在巴中资新能源企业的项目决策和存量资产收益。

葡萄牙电力公司EDP全球CEO Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade近日表示,可再生能源发电削减(curtailment)已成为巴西电力行业的主要挑战,并被视为在巴西扩张新风电和太阳能项目的障碍。EDP已暂停在巴西新增风电和太阳能项目,但考虑参与政府年底的首次电池拍卖。巴西矿业和能源部(MME)于1月21日发布承诺条款,以解决削减相关争议,赔偿金额可能超过30亿雷亚尔。对于在巴西布局可再生能源的中资企业而言,电力削减问题正从技术瓶颈演变为投资决策的核心变量。

EDP全球CEO Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade指出,东北部可再生能源发电的快速增长以及分布式发电(尤其是屋顶太阳能板)的扩张,加剧了输电瓶颈和网络拥堵。解决方案包括投资输电基础设施、储能、吸引需求至供应过剩地区(如氢能项目和数据中心),以及监管改革。EDP已暂停在巴西新增风电和太阳能项目,但考虑参与政府年底的首次电池拍卖。巴西矿业和能源部(MME)于1月21日发布承诺条款,以解决削减相关争议,赔偿金额可能超过30亿雷亚尔。在欧洲,削减问题同样存在,部分源于输电网络限制,部分源于经济性削减(电价降至零时发电商自愿减产)。EDP已在智利Punta de Talca风电项目中部署电池储能(投资4400万美元),全球运营电池容量达550兆瓦,主要在美国。EDP表示,在巴西恢复风电和太阳能投资将取决于削减问题的解决方案是否带来更大可预测性。

底稿未直接涉及中资企业具体案例,但电力削减问题对在巴中资可再生能源开发商、EPC承包商及设备出口商构成系统性影响。巴西东北部是中资风电和太阳能项目的主要聚集区,该地区输电瓶颈直接导致已投产项目发电量被强制削减,影响项目IRR和融资可行性。巴西监管机构ANEEL(国家电力局)和MME的后续政策走向,将决定中资企业是否继续推进新项目投资。此外,储能和氢能项目作为需求侧解决方案,为中资电池制造商和绿氢技术企业提供了潜在市场机会。

CBI解读:底稿显示,EDP作为全球主要电力运营商暂停巴西新项目,是行业对电力削减问题严重性的明确信号。CBI认为,30亿雷亚尔的赔偿承诺虽能缓解部分存量项目损失,但未触及输电基础设施投资和监管改革等根本问题。对比智利和欧洲经验,巴西若不能加速输电扩容和储能部署,可再生能源投资信心将持续承压。中资企业需关注MME后续输电拍卖计划和电池拍卖细则,以及东北部新增输电线路的审批进度。

待观察:1)MME承诺条款的具体赔偿细则和支付时间表(预计2025年上半年公布);2)巴西政府年底首次电池拍卖的容量规模和准入条件;3)ANEEL是否在2025年输电规划中新增东北部至东南部的骨干输电线路。

CBI 观察编辑判断

底稿确认EDP已暂停巴西新增风电和太阳能项目,这是行业对电力削减问题严重性的明确信号。CBI认为,30亿雷亚尔赔偿承诺未解决根本瓶颈,中资企业应关注MME后续输电拍卖和电池拍卖细则,而非仅依赖赔偿方案。

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信息概要

类型
企业动态
方向
巴西
分类
宏观市场
层级
编辑整理
地点
中资可再生能源开发商、EPC承包商、设备出口商
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资可再生能源开发商在巴中资EPC承包商在巴中资新能源设备出口商
话题
政策行业趋势企业动态

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Power curtailment is a challenge in Brazil, EDP says
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Power curtailment is a challenge in Brazil, EDP says

Global CEO of EDP Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade Betty Laura Zapata/Bloomberg The reduction in energy generation from renewable sources, known as "curtailment" in the electric sector, has emerged as a major challenge for companies in the sector, including EDP, which sees it as a barrier to expanding new wind and solar projects in Brazil. Power curtailment compensation could top R$3bn EDP shifts Brazil strategy toward power grids and storage EDP launches battery project in Chile, eyes Brazil market In an interview with journalists at the company's headquarters in Lisbon, EDP's global CEO, Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade, indicated that the solution to the issue lies in a combination of investments in transmission, energy storage, attracting demand to regions with excess supply, and regulatory measures. "In Brazil, 'curtailment' is a significant issue. I would say it is probably the number one issue among the top three challenges we face in Brazil at the moment," said the executive. Stilwell d’Andrade noted that the significant advancement of renewable generation in the Northeast, combined with the growth of distributed generation, especially with the expansion of rooftop solar panels, has exacerbated bottlenecks in the distribution of energy produced by wind and solar farms, leading to network congestion. The executive suggests that part of the solution could be expanding transmission infrastructure to increase capacity for transporting energy produced in the Northeast to major consumption centers. Another alternative under consideration is bringing demand closer to generation hubs by establishing large energy consumers, such as hydrogen projects and data centers, thereby reducing the need for distribution. In addition to infrastructure solutions, Stilwell d’Andrade mentioned that regulatory changes currently under discussion could help alleviate the sector's problem. On Tuesday (21st), the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) made progress on the issue by publishing a commitment term to resolve disputes related to "curtailment," with compensation that could exceed R$3 billion for companies affected by the cuts. However, experts consulted noted that company participation remains uncertain, as not all claims have been addressed. "Curtailment" is a challenge faced in other markets as well, albeit with some differences. In Europe, he stated, there are both cuts due to transmission network limitations and so-called economic "curtailment," when the excess of renewable generation drives electricity prices to zero, prompting generators to voluntarily reduce their production. In both cases, according to the executive, part of the solution involves investing in networks to redirect energy where needed and in battery storage. EDP already uses batteries as part of its strategy to handle generation constraints in other markets. Last month, the Portuguese company began operating its first hybrid park with wind generation and storage in South America. The system, part of the Punta de Talca wind project in Chile, received an investment of $44 million (approximately R$230 million) and aims, among other objectives, to reduce impacts associated with "curtailment." Globally, the company has 550 MW of batteries in operation, mainly in the United States. Energy storage through batteries is also seen as a way to mitigate the effects of cuts in Brazil by allowing the energy to be used at different times of the day. Although a final decision has not yet been made, EDP is evaluating opportunities in energy storage in Brazil, amid expectations for the government's first battery auction scheduled for the end of this year. "We will certainly consider participating. We haven't made a decision yet, but we are analyzing this possibility," he said. Facing current challenges, EDP has withdrawn new wind and solar energy projects from its business plan in Brazil for the next three years. According to Stilwell d’Andrade, any potential resumption of investments in these segments will depend on greater predictability regarding the solutions adopted to resolve the issue of electricity generation cuts. "We are investing significantly in Brazil, in distribution and transmission. We have participated in various auctions. At the moment, however, we are not investing in wind and solar projects because, given the 'curtailment' issues, this market is not very attractive. We might even consider investments in natural gas. I know there have been some recent auctions in this area. We will certainly look at the battery segment as well," he said. Despite the pause in new renewable generation projects in Brazil, EDP maintains a global strategy of expansion in clean energy sources and sees competitiveness in these sources compared to other generation options. About 60% of EDP Renováveis' investments are currently concentrated in the U.S., a market where, according to Stilwell d’Andrade, projects tend to be larger and face fewer implementation obstacles. In Europe, on the other hand, the main hurdle to accelerating renewable expansion is the delay in obtaining licenses and permits for new ventures. EDP, which will celebrate its 50th anniversary in 2026, has transformed its energy matrix over the past two decades. According to Stilwell d’Andrade, the company shifted from a generation portfolio composed of more than 80% thermal sources to one with more than 90% renewable sources. In Brazil, EDP's first international market outside of Portugal, the company has operated for about 30 years and has a generating park with 4 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, entirely renewable, consisting of 3 hydroelectric plants, 11 wind farms, and 3 solar complexes. The company also operates in Brazil in the segments of electric power transmission and distribution. EDP plans to invest R$10 billion in distribution between 2026 and 2030 and another R$3.7 billion in transmission between 2026 and 2028. Since 2005, the company has accumulated R$44.7 billion in investments in the country. The commitment to the Brazilian market was recently reinforced with the renewal, for another 30 years, of distribution concessions in São Paulo and Espírito Santo. Together, the two concessionaires serve about 4 million consumers. *The reporter’s travel costs were covered by EDP

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