卢拉寻求改组央行董事会以加速降息

Dario Durigan Washington Costa/MF Frustrated by high interest rates, which he believes are holding back economic growth, reelected President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has begun consulting advisers and economists on ways to bring down Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate during his fourth term. As part of that effort, he is looking for more heterodox candidates to fill four seats on the Central Bank’s board by February 2027, hoping to shift the direction of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which has favored caution in the current easing cycle. Lula has reached an understanding with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (Brazil Union Party) to submit nominations later this month for two Central Bank positions that have been vacant since January: the directors of Financial System Organization and Resolution and Economic Policy. Lula’s election-year pledges could push Brazil’s deficit to 1% of GDP Brazil’s inflation outlook darkens after Lula’s reelection Two more seats will become available at the end of February next year, when the terms of Supervision Director Ailton de Aquino Santos and Monetary Policy Director Nilton Schneider David expire. Both were appointed by Lula and have worked closely with Central Bank Chair Gabriel Galípolo. However, uncertainty within the government and the Central Bank surrounds whether they will be reappointed for another four years, given Lula’s desire to bring fresh perspectives to the board. One name being discussed is André Roncaglia, an economist who serves as Brazil’s executive director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Despite his dissatisfaction with the pace of interest rate cuts, Lula has continued meeting with Galípolo to receive updates on the Central Bank’s efforts to address excessive household debt. The two met Wednesday (Oct. 28) at the presidential residence, Palácio da Alvorada. Copom begins its two-day meeting Tuesday (Nov. 3), with a decision on whether to hold or adjust the Selic rate, currently at 13.75%, expected Wednesday (Nov. 4). Financial markets grew uneasy after O Globo columnist Lauro Jardim reported Sunday (Nov. 1) that Lula might meet this week with economist André Lara Resende. One of the architects of Brazil’s Real Plan, which stabilized the currency in the 1990s, Lara Resende has proposed unconventional ways to lower the Selic rate, including setting an explicit interest rate target. Investors regard his proposals as excessively heterodox. Political pressure Former Institutional Relations Minister Gleisi Hoffmann, who lost her Senate race in Paraná, added to the debate Sunday when she wrote on social media that Lara Resende’s article was “essential to counter this terrorist offensive against Brazilian fiscal policy.” That same day, Lula posted a video pushing back against false claims circulating in recent days that he would eliminate social programs and abandon plans to end the six-day workweek followed by one day off, known in Brazil as the 6x1 schedule. He said existing public policies would remain in place and could even be expanded, implying additional government spending. Analysis: Copom remains faces test as economy’s only anchor “In the one week I went without speaking, lies took over this country once again,” the president said in the video. “Not a single social program will be eliminated in this country,” he emphasized. Lula added that new social programs could be introduced and existing ones improved. “Everything that was promised during the campaign, you can be sure will happen.” As investor anxiety mounted, Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Workers’ Party (PT) President Edinho Silva sought to dispel reports of a planned meeting between Lula and Lara Resende. Durigan told Valor that several economists had contacted him and Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) President Aloizio Mercadante, offering to discuss their ideas with Lula. However, the finance minister said no meetings had been scheduled so far. He also dismissed suggestions that the government was considering proposals such as setting an interest rate target or drawing on international reserves, both advocated by Lara Resende in an article outlining ways to lower borrowing costs. The economist proposes keeping the Selic within a range bounded by the inflation target of 3% and the sum of that target and Brazil’s estimated potential real economic growth rate, or 5.5%. The benchmark rate would then be gradually reduced until it reached the recommended level. As Durigan worked to reassure investors, Hoffmann returned to social media Monday (Nov. 2) to clarify her earlier remarks. The former minister, who is being considered for another position in Lula’s fourth administration, criticized market “nervousness” and stressed that listening to a proposal “does not mean embracing it.” She also emphasized that Lula has always been “fiscally responsible” and reiterated that he would not engage in “electoral fraud” by breaking his campaign promises. Fiscal credibility The internal debate over reshaping Copom is unfolding alongside discussions about how to put public finances on a more sustainable footing following the election. Financial market participants have warned the economic team against repeating the disappointment surrounding the fiscal package unveiled in 2024, when a negative investor reaction pushed the exchange rate per U.S. dollar above R$6. Their concerns echo an argument gaining traction within the administration: the government needs structural measures to curb spending, including mandatory expenditures. But another faction, comprising political advisers and PT leaders, opposes steps that could be portrayed as a betrayal of campaign promises. A further challenge is persuading Lula himself that such measures are essential to establishing his administration’s credibility at the start of his fourth term. Several options are under discussion, including caps on certain expenditures, targeting the midpoint of the fiscal target, extending spending freezes to mandatory outlays, and making permanent the triggers that restrict growth in some categories of spending. Investors believe these mechanisms could help manage the timing and flow of expenditures, but would not address the underlying fiscal imbalance. Market expectations are likely to improve only in response to measures that permanently affect spending, revenue and the primary fiscal balance. Mandatory spending Brazil’s central government has accumulated a primary deficit of R$49.5 billion over the past 12 months, equivalent to 0.38% of gross domestic product. Some private-sector analysts believe the measures under consideration could ease part of the pressure if they prove effective and take effect immediately. Even so, a package focused primarily on these initiatives would fall short of expectations and would be unlikely to bring the exchange rate and futures interest rates back to their previous levels. Government officials are aware of this risk and acknowledge concerns about the impact of exchange rate movements on inflation. On the expenditure side, social security is seen as the main source of pressure. Financial market participants argue that without changes to these major spending commitments, the narrower adjustments being discussed might improve the composition of the federal budget but would not reduce overall expenditure. With the government also yet to decide whether to revise its fiscal framework, public spending is expected to remain around 19% of GDP in the coming years.