巴西多市场基金业洗牌，三大老牌基金经理资产缩水

Brazil’s multimarket fund industry is undergoing a structural shake-up that is forcing even its founding figures to rethink their business models. A massive shift in investor allocations since the monetary tightening cycle began in 2022 has eroded assets in macro strategies run by three of the country’s most prominent managers: Luis Stuhlberger of Verde, Rogério Xavier of SPX and André Jakurski of JGP. “These guys are brilliant, but the edge they had in the late 1990s is gone,” said an industry observer who has followed the sector for two decades. “Competition has increased dramatically, access to information has changed, and quantitative models powered by artificial intelligence are now widely available.” XP Asset challenges ‘2 and 20’ fee model for macro funds Credit-heavy funds see R$49bn in redemptions During the era of low interest rates, some funds grew too large for Brazil’s domestic market and were forced to diversify overseas. But international markets are more efficient, and Brazilian managers must compete with global heavyweights such as Bridgewater, Duquesne Capital, PIMCO and Pershing Square. Industry consolidation The latest sign of the changing landscape came when Gávea Investimentos, founded by former Central Bank Chair Arminio Fraga, shut down its macro fund management operations. Other leading independent firms have been pursuing different paths. Verde sold a majority stake to Vinci Compass last year, while SPX and JGP have undergone recent changes as they seek to adapt. Together, the three firms manage more than R$95 billion, including roughly R$15 billion at Verde, R$32.3 billion at JGP and R$48 billion at SPX. In 2021, when investors were diversifying their portfolios amid ultra-low interest rates, their combined assets stood at R$127.5 billion. SPX subsequently reached its own peak of R$80 billion in 2022. Contacted by Valor, none of the firms agreed to an interview. The proliferation of independent asset managers between 2016 and the period following the pandemic has given way to a wave of consolidation and withdrawals. Multimarket, or multi-assets, funds suffered net outflows of R$660.3 billion between 2022 and 2025, data from Anbima, the Brazilian Financial and Capital Markets Association, show. Another R$15.7 billion left the category through the end of August this year. Changing investor demands Two decades ago, prominent fund managers competed primarily against one another, often operating firms where the founder made the key investment decisions. Today, competition extends well beyond the multimarket category, said Adilson Ferrarezi, head of investment solutions at Bradesco Asset Management, which took over Gávea’s multimarket fund. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are playing an increasingly important role in portfolio allocations as fee-based advisory models, in which clients pay directly for investment advice, gain traction. Double-digit interest rates have also kept investors in fixed income, while disappointing fund performance has compounded the industry's challenges. “Investors now demand genuine alpha. They don’t want to pay fees for disguised beta [market risk],” Ferrarezi said. In the past, investors bought into a manager’s reputation: Verde because of Stuhlberger, Gávea because of Fraga, SPX because of Xavier, Adam because of Marcio Appel, or Ibiuna because of former Central Bank officials Rodrigo Azevedo and Mario Torós. Now, they want to understand precisely which risk factors drive returns. “That changes everything. Many of these exposures can be obtained directly through cheaper ETF instruments or tax-exempt credit investments,” he said. Ferrarezi expects Brazil to follow a transition already seen in global markets, moving away from a model centered on a single investment visionary responsible for macro strategy toward a more disciplined approach built around governance and risk management, without relying on any one individual. Smaller funds, greater flexibility Yet the legendary figures of Brazil’s independent asset management industry have lost none of their appeal or investment expertise, said Guilherme Zaczac, head of liquid alternatives in Brazil at UBS Global Wealth Management. “No one has forgotten how to manage money. They’re still extremely good at what they do, and they’re entering what could be a fantastic window of opportunity, because opportunities are plentiful,” he said. One upside of the wave of redemptions is that smaller funds can build or unwind positions more easily. In a strategy managing R$15 billion or R$70 billion, the cost of entering and exiting trades can be substantial, whether the investment call proves right or wrong, Zaczac explained. “When you’re right, you pay to get in and out. And when you’re wrong, triggering a stop-loss [closing a position to limit losses] is expensive. With smaller funds, the chances of generating returns are much greater,” he said. Lessons in risk management Looking back, Zaczac said one lesson was the industry's failure to scrutinize fund positioning closely enough in 2025 and 2026. That might have revealed unusually high correlations among strategies, with managers taking similar directional positions in interest rates both in Brazil and overseas. “We saw a different kind of market move, but that’s something you can only analyze in hindsight. It’s part of the game.”