卢拉选情告急：对弗拉维奥领先优势从21个百分点缩至5个百分点

President Lula Cristiano Mariz/Agência O Globo President Lula enters Sunday’s election seeking a fourth term in a tighter race than in any of the three presidential contests he has won. In the closing stretch, his campaign has relied on a flurry of government measures aimed at household finances, stepped-up travel and interviews as it seeks to mobilize core supporters and win over undecided voters. His opponents have criticized what they describe as an election-season “package of benefits,” including an increase in the Bolsa Família cash-transfer program, for its fiscal impact. Brazil heads to polls in tightest presidential race on record Presidential hopefuls make health pledges without saying how to pay Brazil presidential candidates split over climate agenda Among the campaign’s main challenges are convincing voters that the government’s economic measures are improving their daily lives and finding a message that can “bring hope,” amid questions about what Lula could offer that is new if elected for a fourth term. If the election goes to a runoff, the Workers’ Party plans to keep contrasting the candidates’ biographies and put the administration of Flávio Bolsonaro’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, at the center of the debate. Lula’s allies, however, do not hide their concern. When Quaest first tested Flávio’s candidacy in August 2025, Lula led him by 21 percentage points. That gap had narrowed to five points, 39% to 34%, in the survey released Monday. Over that period, Flávio consolidated his position as his father’s political heir, while Lula’s government faced scandals involving people close to the president and an institutional crisis at the Supreme Court. Although Lula publicly projects confidence, his allies largely agree the result will be close. Campaign strategists, however, say recent polling has made them less concerned about Flávio winning outright on Sunday. A late economic push As Flávio gained ground, the government rolled out a series of measures aimed at breaking through the level of support Lula had been registering in the polls, despite opposition criticism that he was using the machinery of government to bolster his reelection campaign. Seventeen days before the first round, the government announced a 15% increase in Bolsa Família benefits, to R$691, with payments beginning in October, before a possible runoff. It also introduced fuel subsidies to curb price increases at gas stations driven by higher international oil prices, a measure extended through the end of the month. Seeking to balance his presidential duties with his candidacy, Lula also turned his attention to household debt, which his campaign identified as one of Brazilians’ main concerns. The government launched new versions of the Desenrola debt-relief program in May and September. Lula also stepped up his attacks on credit-card use, which he has called a “curse” in speeches. Last week ordered a ban on online betting in Brazil through an executive order. This measure takes immediate effect but requires congressional approval to become permanent. People close to Lula saw the move as bold and warned of the risk of legal challenges, but campaign strategists had tested the issue in polling. They saw the betting ban as particularly appealing to female and Christian voters. A Valor analysis estimates the measures will cost nearly R$270 billion this year, including subsidized credit, expanded benefits, tax breaks and subsidies. The measures provided some relief for Lula’s campaign after months of turbulence. When the president’s son Fábio Luís da Silva and former chief aide Marco Aurélio Ribeiro were mentioned in connection with the scandal involving Brazil’s social security agency, the campaign felt the impact. It concluded that it needed to prepare for corruption to become a central issue in the election. It began devising strategies to respond. What Lula’s campaign had not anticipated, however, was the crisis at the Supreme Court. The president’s allies were caught by surprise when reports emerged of alleged contacts between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and former Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro. According to allies, Lula then faced a difficult political choice: distance himself from Moraes, whose ties to the president were being highlighted by the opposition, or risk deepening an institutional crisis involving another branch of government. They also feared that criticizing Moraes could undermine the justice’s role in proceedings over the Jan. 8, 2023 coup attempt and the prosecution of those involved. Allies say those were the most tense weeks at the Workers’ Party campaign headquarters, with genuine concern that Lula could lose in the first round. Making the economy felt Beyond their immediate electoral objectives, the government measures also address a concern Lula has expressed since the middle of his term and that fluctuating approval ratings during the campaign have brought into sharper focus: the president believes voters are not feeling an improvement in the economy even though his administration has economic indicators it wants to highlight. Aides interviewed by Valor say Lula frequently complains—and demands action—because he believes figures such as the unemployment rate are not reaching voters. Unemployment stood at 5.3% in the three months through August, the lowest rate for that period since the official records began. Consumer prices, as measured by the benchmark IPCA index, have risen a cumulative 17.9% during Lula’s third term through August 2026, the smallest increase over a presidential term by the eve of an election since the Real Plan was introduced. Concern about voters’ perceptions became so pronounced that about a month ago the campaign changed its communications strategy, talking less about “sovereignty,” a theme of its early television broadcasts, and more about kitchen-table economic issues. Lula himself has acknowledged in speeches that “meat is expensive,” while promising conditions will improve. According to allies, the shift is an attempt to revive the message of “hope” that has run through Workers’ Party campaigns since 1989. “It is about finding a new sirloin cap,” said an aide with direct access to the presidential office, referring to the affordable-beef message that became a symbol of Lula’s successful 2022 campaign. Turning up attacks on Flávio After extensive internal debate, Lula’s campaign also adopted a tougher tone toward Flávio, something party activists had long demanded. In television advertisements and social-media videos, the Workers’ Party has highlighted the Federal Police investigation into Flávio over alleged money laundering and corruption connected to the financing of the biopic Dark Horse. It has also drawn attention to messages in which Flávio referred to Vorcaro as a “brother” and to his ties to police officers convicted of belonging to militias in Rio de Janeiro. When Jair Bolsonaro chose his son as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, Workers’ Party officials initially reacted with some relief. They believed Flávio’s record offered plenty of political targets and viewed his lack of executive experience as a vulnerability. At the time, other potential heirs to Bolsonaro’s political movement caused greater concern among Lula’s allies. They included former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, now a Liberal Party candidate for the Senate in the Federal District, and São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicans party, who is seeking reelection. Lula’s allies saw Michelle’s appeal as an evangelical woman making her first run for elected office as a potential challenge. They also saw De Freitas as potentially harder to confront because of his ties to Bolsonaro’s political movement without carrying the Bolsonaro family name. For now, without signaling a new approach, the Workers’ Party plans to continue trying to increase voters’ rejection of the Bolsonaro family by arguing that a Flávio administration would represent a continuation of his father’s government. Campaign strategists view the election as a referendum between the two political camps and point to one Quaest question—whether voters fear Lula’s reelection or the return of the Bolsonaro family more—as potentially important in a runoff. The survey found a 43%-43% tie on that question. The Workers’ Party aims to increase concerns about a Bolsonaro return, particularly among undecided voters. The approach is reflected in an advertisement built around the message, “If the father did this, imagine the son,” which invokes deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic, poverty and deforestation under Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. One challenge throughout the campaign, aides say privately, has been persuading Lula to follow the strategy his advisers devised. The latest example was his decision not to attend the debate organized by TV Globo, despite recommendations from most of his advisers that he take part. Lula rejected their argument that he was the “best spokesman for his own campaign.” Allies worried that his absence would leave attacks against him unanswered and allow them to shape the campaign’s final days. The debate was subsequently canceled.