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巴西民调:91%选民要气候承诺,候选人计划却集体缺位

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Climate should be election priority, survey finds

巴西气候观测站委托Ipsos调查显示,91%受访者要求总统候选人就气候问题作出承诺,但多数候选人气候计划薄弱甚至缺失。在巴中资农业、能源、基建企业需关注大选周期内环境合规标准是否被政治博弈松动。

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91%选民要气候承诺,但候选人计划缺位;43%反对放宽环评标准,在巴中资基建、能源、农业项目面临大选周期内环境合规标准的不确定性。

巴西气候观测站(Climate Observatory)委托Ipsos进行的全国调查显示,91%的巴西受访者希望总统候选人就气候问题作出承诺,90%认为气候与环境应成为政府议程的重要部分。该调查于2025年8月17日至30日访问了1800名18岁以上巴西人。然而,气候观测站执行秘书Marcio Astrini指出,多数总统候选人的气候计划薄弱甚至缺失,其中一人是坚定的气候变化否认者。对在巴中资企业而言,大选周期内环境监管标准的政治不确定性正在上升。

上述调查名为“巴西人认知中的气候与环境”,问卷包含32个关于气候与环境的问题。核心发现包括:87%的受访者认为气候变化导致干旱、暴雨和热浪,85%认为气候危机已影响其日常生活,79%认为即使需要付出成本气候问题也应优先,76%认为仍来得及避免最严重后果。

但气候议题在公众整体关切中的排名并不靠前。公共安全与犯罪以49%居首,生活成本上升41%,针对女性的暴力与杀害女性36%,公共医疗质量34%。气候变化与环境危机仅以19%排名第九。当问题限定在环境议题内部时,气候变化以35%的提及率排名第一。政治光谱分化明显:左翼受访者中30%认为气候问题重要,右翼仅10%;年轻群体中22%认为气候问题应优先,51岁以上群体为14%。

在气候影响的具体担忧上,热浪和气温上升以29%居首,暴雨和洪水22%,海平面上升和沿海影响仅3%。47%的受访者对联邦、州和市政府应对气候灾害的表现“完全不满意”。43%认为投资项目应遵守现行环境标准,反对放宽目前正在审议的立法中提出的标准。调查还涉及甲烷认知——这种温室气体的效力是CO2的28倍,畜牧业是巴西最大排放源,但多数受访者将甲烷排放归因于垃圾填埋场和化石燃料燃烧。

对在巴中资企业而言,底稿未涉及直接冲击,但通过三条机制间接传导。第一,43%受访者反对放宽环境标准,意味着正在审议的立法若试图松动环评要求,将面临民意阻力;中资基建、能源项目的环评审批节奏可能因政治博弈而波动。第二,47%对三级政府气候灾害应对“完全不满意”,表明地方政府在灾害应急和基础设施韧性上的投入可能成为选举议题,中资参与的港口、公路、电力项目或面临更严格的气候适应性审查。第三,甲烷认知偏差指向巴西农业排放监管可能滞后,中资农业贸易商和肉类加工投资方需关注未来MAPA(巴西农业、畜牧业和供应部)是否被迫跟进甲烷管控。

CBI认为,这份调查的核心矛盾在于:公众对气候危机的“体感”很强(85%认为影响日常生活),但将其转化为政治优先级的比例很低(整体关注度仅19%)。底稿显示,91%的人希望候选人作出气候承诺,但Astrini明确指出多数候选人计划薄弱或缺失。CBI观察,这意味着气候议题在2026年大选周期中更可能作为“道德表态”而非“政策竞争”存在,实际监管收紧的窗口期可能被推迟。对中资企业而言,短期合规风险不在于标准突然提高,而在于标准的不确定性——候选人若以“反对放宽环境标准”争取选票,可能推动更严格的许可条件,但执行层面又受制于经济优先的现实。

待观察的跟踪点包括:第一,巴西总统候选人是否在竞选纲领中纳入具体气候目标,尤其是甲烷管控和毁林监测的量化承诺;第二,正在审议的环境立法中放宽标准的条款是否在国会表决中被修改或撤回;第三,气候观测站是否发布后续调查,追踪公众气候关切在大选白热化阶段(2026年上半年)的排名变化。

CBI 观察编辑判断

底稿显示85%受访者认为气候危机已影响日常生活,但气候议题整体关注度仅排第九(19%)。CBI认为,这种“高体感、低优先级”的结构意味着气候政策在大选年更可能被用作政治表态工具,而非实质性监管收紧,中资企业短期面临的是标准不确定性而非合规成本骤升。

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信息概要

类型
行业趋势
方向
巴西
分类
宏观市场
层级
编辑整理
地点
在巴中资农业贸易商、能源投资方、基建承包商、肉类加工企业
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资农业与肉类加工企业在巴中资基建与能源项目投资方对巴贸易商与出口商
话题
政治行业趋势

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Climate should be election priority, survey finds
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Climate should be election priority, survey finds

Marcio Astrini Daisy Serena/Observatório do Clima The climate crisis remains a major concern for Brazilians, and many already feel threatened by the effects of climate change. As a result, there is strong demand for presidential candidates to present proposals on the issue. Those are among the findings of an Ipsos survey commissioned by the Climate Observatory, a network of 172 civil society organizations working on climate issues. “Climate and the Environment in Brazilians’ Perceptions” surveyed 1,800 people aged 18 and older across the country between August 17 and 30. The questionnaire included 32 questions about climate and the environment and whether these issues are on public and government agendas. The aim was to examine how Brazilians view the climate crisis, the role of government, priorities, and expectations. One of the strongest areas of consensus is that climate change causes droughts, heavy rainfall, and heat waves, a view shared by 87% of respondents, while 85% agree that the crisis is affecting their daily lives. Of the total sample, 79% believe the issue should be a priority even if that entails costs, and 76% believe there is still time to avert the worst consequences. Social and economic problems nevertheless dominate public concerns. Public insecurity and crime rank first, cited by 49%, followed by the rising cost of living, at 41%; violence against women and femicides, at 36%; and the quality of public health care, at 34%. Climate change and the environmental crisis rank ninth, at 19%. When the question is limited to environmental problems, climate change ranks first, with 35% of mentions. The issue matters more to left-wing respondents (30%) than to those on the right (10%). Younger groups also assign it greater priority, at 22%, compared with 14% among those over age 51. “The survey tells us a story: Climate change was not as present in people’s lives 10 years ago as it is today, but their understanding of the problem still lacks depth,” said Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory. “The major change in recent years is that the climate agenda has moved out of reports and into people’s real lives in the form of tragedy.” Astrini noted that the survey shows Brazilians want candidates to make climate commitments, with 91% saying so, but that this is unfortunately not happening. “Most presidential hopefuls have weak plans on the issue—or no plans at all. One of them is even a committed climate-change denialist,” he said. Another striking area of consensus is that climate and the environment should be an important part of the government agenda, a view shared by 90% of respondents, while only 3% consider the issue of little or no importance. The survey also sought to gauge public perceptions of methane, a greenhouse gas 28 times more potent than CO2. Livestock farming is Brazil’s largest source of methane emissions, but the survey shows that respondents perceive the issue differently: Most attribute the gas’s emissions to landfills, open-air dumps, and the burning of fossil fuels. In material sent to the press, Suely Araújo, the Climate Observatory’s public policy coordinator, said the survey confirms that Brazilians are concerned about climate change and its effects. “The effort is to ensure that this concern translates into votes that elect candidates who genuinely incorporate this issue into their work,” she said. “In the midst of a climate crisis, we cannot accept open or disguised deniers in either the executive or legislative branch.” Astrini said people feel that climate change “disrupts their lives. But their understanding of the problem’s origins remains confused.” Among the most worrisome effects of the climate crisis, heat waves and rising temperatures rank first, at 29%, followed by torrential rainfall and flooding, at 22%. Rising sea levels and the effects on coastal areas concern only 3% of respondents. The largest share of respondents, 47%, said they were “not at all satisfied” with how federal, state, and municipal governments responded to climate disasters. Another plurality, 43%, said investment projects should comply with current environmental standards and opposed easing the standards proposed in legislation currently under consideration. Translation: Todd Harkin

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