← 返回巴西资讯
巴西资讯巴西宏观市场2026年9月17日

巴西研究:生物甲烷万亿方潜力待挖,中资农业与能源企业可提前卡位

分享

Biomethane offers opportunity for emerging economies

巴西四校联合研究指出,全球生物甲烷年生产潜力达1万亿立方米,新兴经济体凭农业畜牧废弃物原料具备后发优势;中资在巴西的农业加工、沼气设备、碳信用及生物肥料领域存在早期布局窗口。

为什么值得关注

1万亿立方米/年潜力、20%-60%附加收入占比、ANP与MAPA监管路径,决定中资农业与能源企业是否提前布局巴西生物甲烷供应链。

一项由圣保罗大学(USP)、毛阿理工学院(IMT)、坎皮纳斯农艺研究所和伊塔茹巴联邦大学研究人员联合撰写、受低碳出行研究所(MBCBrasil)支持的研究指出,生物甲烷生产目前仍集中在瑞典、德国、美国加州等发达经济体,但新兴经济体凭借丰富的农业和畜牧废弃物原料拥有显著发展机遇。研究题为《从废弃物到车轮——将有机废弃物转化为交通可再生燃料》,汇编了国际能源署(IEA)、联合国粮农组织(FAO)等机构数据,显示全球沼气与生物甲烷年生产潜力约1万亿立方米,相当于全球天然气需求的四分之一。对在巴中资企业而言,这一趋势直接关联农业加工废弃物的资源化利用、沼气设备出口以及碳信用和生物肥料等附加收入来源。

研究由Glaucia Mendes Souza(圣保罗大学)、Clayton Barcelos Zabeu(毛阿理工学院)、Heitor Cantarella(坎皮纳斯农艺研究所)和Luiz A. Horta Nogueira(伊塔茹巴联邦大学)共同完成,受低碳出行研究所(MBCBrasil)支持。核心结论是:通过厌氧消化有机废弃物产生的生物甲烷,可为新兴经济体提供可再生交通燃料,同时支持气候目标、能源多元化、循环经济和农村发展。

底稿显示,当今最成熟的生物甲烷市场全部位于发达经济体,包括瑞典、德国、意大利、法国、荷兰、丹麦、芬兰、瑞士、英国、挪威和美国加利福尼亚州。巴西、中国、印度、西班牙等国市场正在扩张。生物甲烷在约40个国家生产,在约30个市场用作燃料。研究人员引用IEA数据指出,最大的未开发机遇位于农业产量大、畜牧业发达和城市增长显著地区,包括拉丁美洲、撒哈拉以南非洲以及南亚和东南亚。原料分布方面,动物粪便在巴西、印度、中国和阿根廷十分丰富;农业残余物集中在巴西、印度、泰国和印度尼西亚;拉丁美洲和东南亚拥有大量农工业废弃物;中国、印度和印度尼西亚的城市有机废弃物及填埋气、废水污泥潜力显著。

对在巴中资企业而言,底稿未涉及中资企业直接影响,但通过三条机制间接传导。第一,巴西是大豆、玉米、甘蔗、家禽和生猪养殖大国,中资农业加工企业(如粮食压榨、肉类加工、乙醇生产)的有机废弃物处理成本可能因生物甲烷项目获得对冲——将废料转化为能源或生物肥料,降低环保合规支出。第二,中资沼气设备、厌氧消化反应器和提纯装置制造商可关注巴西、印度、东南亚等新兴市场的设备出口机会,但需适配当地原料特性与监管标准。第三,研究引用IEA、FAO、全球生物能源伙伴关系(GBEP)和欧洲沼气协会的联合研究指出,生物甲烷项目的额外收入来源——废弃物管理服务、生物肥料、可再生二氧化碳、碳信用和原产地保证证书——可占项目总收入的20%至60%。这意味着中资企业若在巴西投资生物甲烷项目,碳信用和生物肥料可能是比燃料本身更早实现盈利的环节。对应巴西监管机构方面,燃料掺混指令涉及ANP(国家石油管理局),碳信用涉及CVM(证券交易委员会)和即将启动的巴西碳市场框架,生物肥料登记涉及MAPA(农业畜牧和供给部),税收激励涉及Receita Federal(联邦税务局)。

CBI认为,底稿显示生物甲烷的技术成熟度和政策工具(燃料掺混指令、可再生能源目标、财政激励)已在多国得到验证,但新兴经济体的项目落地仍受制于原料收集物流、厌氧消化设施资本开支和并网/加注基础设施。CBI观察,巴西、印度和中国被研究点名为“已拥有将生物甲烷技术适应发展中国家条件的经验”,这意味着中资企业在巴西的角色可能不是技术引入者,而是设备供应方、项目共同投资方或碳信用开发方。与中资在巴西已布局的太阳能和风电不同,生物甲烷项目的分布式特征更强,更依赖本地农业供应链关系,中资企业若单独进入可能面临原料端议价劣势,与本地农业合作社或大型养殖企业合资是更现实的路径。

待观察:第一,巴西ANP是否在2025-2026年更新生物甲烷燃料掺混指令或加注基础设施规划,这将直接影响项目投资回报模型。第二,巴西碳市场(SBCE)实施细则中是否将生物甲烷项目产生的碳信用纳入合规抵消范围,以及MAPA对生物肥料登记的审批周期是否缩短。第三,IEA或GBEP是否在下一版报告中更新新兴经济体生物甲烷项目装机数据,可监控巴西沼气协会(ABiogás)的季度装机统计作为先行指标。

CBI 观察编辑判断

底稿显示生物甲烷成熟市场全在发达国家,新兴经济体原料丰富但项目落地少。CBI认为,中资企业在巴西的机会不在燃料本身,而在设备出口、碳信用开发和生物肥料等附加收入环节,这些环节的监管门槛和资本开支低于燃料分销。

这条资讯对你有帮助吗?

信息概要

类型
行业趋势
方向
巴西
分类
宏观市场
层级
编辑整理
地点
中资农业加工企业、沼气设备制造商、碳信用开发商、生物肥料企业、能源投资者
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资农业加工企业中资沼气设备与环保工程出口商关注巴西碳信用的投资者
话题
行业趋势科技

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Biomethane offers opportunity for emerging economies
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Biomethane offers opportunity for emerging economies

Biomethane production remains concentrated in developed countries. Emerging economies, however, also have opportunities because of their available feedstock, particularly agricultural and livestock waste, according to a study by Brazilian researchers supported by the Low Carbon Mobility Institute (MBCBrasil). The study found that gas produced by biodigesting waste could provide emerging economies with a renewable transportation fuel that supports their climate goals, energy-diversification strategies, circular economies, and rural development. The study, “From Waste to Wheels—Turning Organic Waste into Renewable Fuel for Transport,” was written by researchers Glaucia Mendes Souza of the University of São Paulo (USP), Clayton Barcelos Zabeu of the Mauá Institute of Technology (IMT), Heitor Cantarella of the Campinas Agronomic Institute, and Luiz A. Horta Nogueira of the Federal University of Itajubá. They compiled research to highlight the potential for biomethane adoption worldwide. According to the document, today’s most mature biomethane markets are all in developed economies, including Sweden, Germany, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Norway, and California. Other markets are expanding, including Brazil, the United States, China, India, Spain, Ireland, Austria, and Belgium. Biomethane is produced in approximately 40 countries and used as a fuel in about 30 markets. The researchers said data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show that the largest untapped opportunities for biomethane production are precisely in regions with substantial agricultural production, livestock farming, and urban growth, including Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. Global production potential for biogas and biomethane is 1 trillion cubic meters a year, equivalent to about one-quarter of worldwide gas demand. The availability of feedstock for biomethane production “is linked to economic development and population growth. As emerging economies expand their agricultural production and urban populations, the volume of organic waste they generate also increases,” the study said. The researchers listed the main feedstock types and the countries with the greatest potential to use them. Animal manure is abundant in Brazil, India, China, and Argentina. Brazil, India, Thailand, and Indonesia have large volumes of agricultural residues. In contrast, Latin America and Southeast Asia have abundant agro-industrial waste. Among nonagricultural sources, China, India, and Indonesia have the potential to use municipal organic waste, while landfill gas and wastewater sludge offer significant potential in large urban centers in emerging economies. The researchers emphasized that countries such as Brazil, India, and China “already have experience adapting biomethane technologies to conditions in developing countries and can provide valuable lessons for other emerging markets.” To encourage the biomethane market, the study cited countries that have adopted individual policies or combinations of measures, including fuel-blending mandates, sector-specific renewable-energy targets, physical infrastructure development, and financial or tax incentives. The researchers also cited a study by the IEA, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP), and the European Biogas Association. It found that many biomethane projects succeed by making their other products—such as biofertilizers—and environmental services—such as carbon credits—economically viable. Additional revenue streams for a biomethane project may include waste-management services, biofertilizer, renewable carbon dioxide, carbon credits, and guarantees-of-origin certificates. According to the study, these additional sources can account for between 20% and 60% of a biomethane project’s total revenue. Translation: Todd Harkin

觉得有价值?

分享给需要了解巴西市场的朋友

帮助更多中国企业看懂巴西,做成生意

China Brazil Insight · 中巴合作价值链中的信息节点

这条资讯影响你的业务吗?

CBI 提供从信息到行动的完整支持