巴西企业海外发债遇冷，中资融资成本窗口期收窄

Hans Lin, co-head of investment banking at Bank of America (BofA) in Brazil Carol Carquejeiro/Valor While the global debt market is heading for another year of strong activity, a series of credit events involving Brazilian companies interrupted the pace of offshore bond issuance and prevented the country from matching the performance seen in other markets. After a strong start to the year, investors began demanding higher premiums to buy Brazilian bonds, especially those carrying greater risk, prompting several companies to postpone fundraising plans. Robust recovery of debenture issuances may take time NTN-Bs struggle to find buyers despite 8% yields Funds hold nearly half of debt issued by stressed Brazilian companies Even so, banks believe 2026 should still end above the projections made at the beginning of the year, despite the election calendar and uncertainty in the global environment. International liquidity remains abundant, and expectations are for a stronger issuance “window” in September, with companies bringing forward transactions ahead of the period of greater volatility associated with Brazil’s presidential election. The current issuance window has already begun. On Thursday, internet service provider Giga Mais, controlled by private equity firm eB Capital, debuted in the international debt market by raising $350 million. The market is also awaiting a potential issuance by CSN. The steelmaker approved an exchange offer for bonds maturing in 2028 into new notes maturing in 2030. As part of the exchange, the coupon will increase from 6.75% a year to 11% a year, with the company paying up to $330 million in cash. In the first half of the year, Brazilian issuers raised about $21 billion in the international market. More than half of that total came from Brazil’s National Treasury, which accounted for $10.4 billion in sovereign bond issuance—virtually the same amount the government raised throughout last year. Among companies, banks project a lower volume than in 2025, when the market experienced a strong rebound driven by the return of major Brazilian issuers to the international corporate debt market. Felipe Thut, head of fixed income at Bradesco BBI, says the total volume raised by companies and banks—excluding sovereign bonds—should end the year close to $16 billion, in line with 2024 but below the roughly $26 billion recorded in 2025. According to him, the National Treasury will continue to be one of Brazil’s leading issuers this year. “The government has already issued more than it did in all of last year, and that amount should increase further considering the potential fundraising through panda bonds announced recently,” the executive said. Panda bonds are debt securities issued in yuan in China. The slowdown contrasts with the global picture. According to data compiled by Bank of America (BofA), issuance by investment-grade companies is up 32% this year, driven by more than $550 billion in net inflows into fixed-income funds over the past 12 months. In Latin America, the market also remains buoyant, supported by strong investor appetite for credit issuance. “The year could have been better than last year if it had not been for the credit events involving Brazilian companies. That held back issuance by several potential borrowers,” said Gustavo Siqueira, head of international fixed income for Latin America at Morgan Stanley. Among the most significant restructuring cases involving companies with offshore debt are Ambipar, Raízen, and Braskem. According to the executive, January was one of the strongest months of the year, but the credit events quickly changed international investors’ perception of Brazilian risk. A significant share of bonds issued by Brazilian companies began trading below their issuance price in the secondary market, triggering broader aversion to local corporate credit. As a result, investors started demanding higher premiums to participate in new offerings, especially from higher-risk, high-yield issuers. The assessment is shared by Murilo Kühl, head of international fixed income at Itaú BBA. According to him, the offshore market continues to post record issuance volumes and liquidity remains abundant, but investors have become far more selective. The widening spread between investment-grade companies and higher-risk issuers increased significantly after the credit events, limiting market access for riskier borrowers. Samy Podlubny, head of fixed income at UBS BB, said selectivity is likely to remain a defining feature of the market in the second half, but stressed that the environment remains more favorable than expected at the start of the year. In his view, the volume raised by Brazilian companies has been a positive surprise for an election year and shows that foreign investors placed less weight on the domestic political landscape than initially expected. Transactions completed so far, he added, have attracted strong demand. Podlubny believes activity will remain concentrated among the so-called “usual suspects”—companies already familiar to international investors and with an established track record of market access—while first-time issuers are likely to continue facing a more challenging environment. In addition to greater investor selectivity, another factor contributed to the lower issuance volume. Many companies took advantage of last year’s favorable market window to bring forward financing needs and extend the maturity profile of their debt. Reflecting this, among Brazilian investment-grade companies that issued bonds abroad in 2025, only JBS returned to the market this year, noted Hans Lin, co-head of investment banking at Bank of America (BofA) in Brazil. Lin believes other companies will access the bond market before the end of 2026. “We expect Brazilian fundraising volumes to increase by at least another $10 billion,” he said. “Between September and another issuance window shortly after the election, companies should return to the market because fixed income tends to experience some volatility due to the election, but less than equities.” The next issuance season is expected in September, after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S. and the release of second-quarter financial results. According to Siqueira, between five and six transactions are already in the pipeline for the month, which could result in about $7 billion in issuance, excluding any potential sovereign fundraising by the National Treasury. Podlubny also expects an active market. “There will be deals, but mainly involving companies already known to investors,” he said. Bankers believe the performance of U.S. Treasury securities will continue to be one of the main drivers of the market in the second half. Changes in expectations for U.S. interest rates increased volatility throughout the year, but issuers have adopted a more pragmatic approach to funding costs. At the same time, tighter domestic credit conditions and the repricing of debt in the local market have encouraged companies to consider the international market as an alternative source of financing, increasing the number of mandates under preparation. Deals completed this year already show that investor appetite remains concentrated among higher-quality issuers. JBS carried out the largest corporate issuance of the first half, raising $2.5 billion to repurchase outstanding bonds and strengthen its cash position. In the initial $2 billion offering, the order book reached $9 billion. Sabesp also stood out, raising $1.5 billion through an unprecedented A/B bond structure for Brazilian issuers, while Azul raised $1.375 billion to support the completion of its financial restructuring. So far, 15 Brazilian bond offerings have been completed in the international market. In addition to two sovereign transactions by the National Treasury—one in U.S. dollars and another in euros—the market was accessed by Bradesco, BTG Pactual, FS Bio, Sabesp, Azul, JBS, Minerva, J&F, Banco do Brasil, Rede D’Or, Oceânica and Movida.