巴西气候适应能力告急，中资基建与农业保险面临新风险

Paulo Artaxo Divulgação Brazil needs to develop a culture of preparedness for the new climate reality, invest in adaptation, and improve its ability to monitor and respond to extreme events, says Paulo Artaxo, director of the Center for Sustainable Amazon Studies at the University of São Paulo (USP). One of the world’s leading climate experts, he received the 2026 Planet Earth Award and has served as a lead author of reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Artaxo warns that Brazil is behind in preparing its cities for droughts, intense rainfall, and heat waves—phenomena that deepen inequality and affect vulnerable populations most severely. In an interview with Valor, the scientist, who will participate in Rio Innovation Week in Rio de Janeiro this week, calls for improvements to the weather-monitoring network and a change in how the country addresses extreme events, with preventive measures taking priority before disasters occur. “We are losing the ability to forecast the weather with the accuracy we had in previous decades. Extreme events, such as the severe windstorm that struck São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, need to be monitored so we can determine whether they will become more frequent on a warmer planet. Brazil needs to develop a culture of preparedness for this new climate, with planning, infrastructure, and guidance for the public,” he says. According to Artaxo, prevention should become part of how society is educated, as it has in Japan for earthquakes. However, adaptation must take Brazil’s social conditions into account. “In Japan, children learn from an early age how to respond, with frequent drills and prepared infrastructure. That is the kind of culture of preparedness we need to build in Brazil,” he says. Such preparations should also include more direct guidance for the public, such as alerts advising people to avoid travel in dangerous conditions and even whether they should leave home. “But that is difficult when you have a job, and when your boss is pressuring you to go to work. The entire system must be prepared to respond cohesively, in a coordinated and planned manner—not improvised, as usually happens in Brazil.” The risk of a strong El Niño in the second half of the year heightens these concerns. Although the phenomenon is natural, global warming associated with the burning of fossil fuels changes its intensity and effects. Artaxo notes that with warmer oceans and a warmer atmosphere, the phenomenon begins from a higher temperature baseline, adding an “enormous” amount of energy to the climate system. This changes atmospheric circulation, alters moisture flows, and contributes to droughts, intense rainfall, and other extreme events, he explains. In Brazil, the best-known effects include droughts in the Amazon and central Brazil, intense rainfall in the South, and heat waves in the Southeast. According to Artaxo, global warming is changing the historical patterns scientists use to make forecasts. “What we have learned about El Niño over the past several decades may not hold true in the future. Climate change is increasing uncertainty in weather forecasting,” he says. Artaxo emphasizes that adaptation requires expanding data infrastructure, integrating government agencies, and extending the monitoring network across the entire country. In his view, two main improvements are needed: a weather-monitoring network adequate for a country of continental proportions and better governance. “The Amazon, for example, has few stations given the size of the region. In addition, the agencies responsible for disaster alerts and responses still operate with little coordination, delaying the delivery of information to the public,” he says. Data from AdaptaBrasil, a platform operated by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, indicate that more than 65% of municipalities have low or very low capacity to adapt to climate change. According to Artaxo, the findings reveal a structural lag in adaptation, which must be developed primarily at the municipal level, where the direct effects on people, infrastructure, and services are felt. “Adaptation is essentially local. Each municipality knows its risk areas, drainage problems, and vulnerabilities to drought or flooding,” he says. The lack of priority given to prevention is also evident in the allocation of public funds. Data from the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) show that Brazil has spent approximately three times more on reconstruction than on prevention since 2012. Artaxo views that approach as a waste of public resources. “Prevention is much cheaper than reconstruction.” In the Amazon, Artaxo advocates integrating the climate and biodiversity agendas and warns of the forest’s role in regulating the climate system. He says that any loss of the forest’s capacity to store carbon and regulate the water cycle could significantly worsen global warming. Avoiding that outcome, he adds, will require more than technological advances and will depend on political choices, international cooperation, and effective governance. “The latest IPCC report shows that we already have virtually all the technologies needed to reduce emissions by 2030. The greatest challenge is not technological—it is rebuilding a governance system capable of managing this transition,” he says. Artaxo adds that Brazil has a strategic opportunity because of its solar and wind power potential, but it must overcome its economic and political dependence on fossil fuels. He also warns that the pursuit of critical minerals requires careful consideration of social and environmental effects. “No economic activity is free of impacts. The challenge is to minimize them and discuss with society what level is acceptable.” Translation: Todd Harkin