厄尔尼诺风险进入巴西大选议程，中资农业与基建企业需关注政策风向

First flood of the year in Venâncio Aires, Rio Grande do Sul: The Taquari River rose 14 meters Divulgação/Prefeitura de Venâncio Aires As initial forecasts of a “super El Niño” are confirmed, the phenomenon’s potential effects on Brazilians and the economy have drawn the attention of presidential candidates. They have included it in their government platforms and outlined measures they intend to adopt to address climate change. Decarbonization requires a set of solutions Brazil’s development bank targets R$20bn for forest restoration Valor contacted the campaigns of the five leading presidential contenders to ask how they plan to address the problem, as the president elected in October will face the risks of flooding, heat waves, shortages, and higher inflation, particularly food prices. The campaigns of Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL), Romeu Zema of the New Party, and Renan Santos of the Mission Party responded to Valor. Former Congressman Roberto Brant, who is coordinating the government platform of Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), confirmed that the document would include measures addressing climate change but said he could not provide details because that chapter was still being drafted. President Lula’s campaign received the request but had not responded by the time this article was published. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign team, led by Rio Grande do Norte Senator Rogério Marinho, a fellow Liberal Party member, confirmed that its government platform will include measures related to El Niño and climate change, “with a focus on prevention, long-term planning, and integration among climate monitoring, civil defense, water infrastructure, rural insurance, and protection for the most vulnerable urban areas.” In a written response, the Liberal Party candidate said Brazil “must stop acting only after tragedies and adopt permanent policies for resilient cities, production protection, and public safety.” He argued that announcing extraordinary funding after disasters is not enough and that “planning, transparency, and the capacity to implement investments” are necessary. The New Party candidate and former governor of Minas Gerais took a similar position, warning that climate disasters have become a pattern and that Brazil must “stop treating them as accidents and begin addressing them through planning.” In this context, Zema advocates an “immediate fiscal adjustment” to give the government flexibility to respond to climate emergencies “without resorting to further debt and increases in sovereign risk and interest rates.” His campaign team also submitted its answers in writing. Meanwhile, Renan Santos’s running mate, Lieutenant Colonel Aroldo Medina, told Valor through his press office that he had confronted several climate disasters on the front lines while heading Rio Grande do Sul’s Civil Defense agency from 2003 through 2006. He confirmed expectations of “extreme intensity” from this year’s El Niño, accompanied by heavy rainfall, and described the federal and state governments as unprepared to address it. “The water does not have to reach people’s necks before the federal government takes preventive action,” he said. According to Medina, people still have to ask where they will go when their communities flood again, leaving them to develop individual contingency plans. He said a Renan Santos administration “will invest in prevention and the training of technical personnel, who are practically nonexistent today.” Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign team detailed the measures he would implement to address climate change if elected. In the document sent to Valor, the Liberal Party presidential candidate described rural insurance as a “strategic instrument for climate adaptation.” He argued that the program needs predictable funding, broader coverage, and integration with agricultural zoning. Flávio said President Lula’s administration is acting inconsistently because it released extraordinary funds to prevent and fight fires, citing the risk posed by El Niño, while removing more than R$500 million from the Rural Insurance Premium Subsidy Program. “It recognizes climate risk in one area while weakening, in another, one of the main policies protecting against droughts, excessive rainfall, frost, and other extreme events,” he said. The Liberal Party candidate added that water security would be one of his priorities, including expanding dams, pipelines, and canals. He also intends to resume the agenda begun under former President Jair Bolsonaro through the Legal Framework for Sanitation, which he called the “world’s largest structural environmental program, accelerating universal access to sewage treatment, eliminating open-air dumps, and expanding drainage and major stormwater projects, with legal certainty and private investment.” Zema’s campaign team also listed several measures to address climate change, beginning with the creation of a Crisis Cabinet to “anticipate and assess the effects of climate events and develop cross-sector strategies and response protocols before disasters occur.” Focusing on agribusiness, the New Party presidential candidate wants to reduce barriers in the rural insurance sector for policies covering losses from climate events, pests, and market fluctuations exacerbated by El Niño. Zema also advocates strengthening Civil Defense monitoring and prevention and attracting private investment for containment projects and the restoration of reservoirs and dams. Like his Liberal Party opponent, he believes universal access to sanitation should be advanced through concessions and public-private partnerships (PPPs), including drainage and proper waste disposal. Zema believes the Minha Casa, Minha Vida (MCMV) affordable housing program should be redesigned to prioritize homes in safe areas with existing infrastructure. In social policy, he advocates measures to identify vulnerable families quickly and prevent them from becoming disaster victims. He also seeks to strengthen public health surveillance to control disease vectors in areas most exposed to climate disasters. The effects of El Niño are already being felt in Brazil, although the most severe period is expected at year-end. In June, the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) issued a bulletin forecasting “above-average rainfall in parts of the South” and “below-average rainfall in the country’s central and northern regions” during the July-August-September quarter. Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul during the second half of this month has already displaced at least 1,800 people and caused damage in 206 municipalities, according to a state Civil Defense report released on July 24. The events included flash flooding, broader floods, landslides, road closures, damage to homes, and preventive evacuations. Winds of approximately 100 kilometers per hour tore roofs from houses. On July 9, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), raised the probability that El Niño would reach the “very strong” category between October and December to 81%. If the forecast is confirmed, it will rank among the strongest El Niño events since modern records began in 1950. Translation: Todd Harkin