巴西首超俄比成中国汽车最大进口国，中资车企抢关关税窗口

Fabiana D’Atri Divulgação Brazil became the world’s largest importer of Chinese cars for the first time. The country purchased $5.2 billion worth of electrified and conventional vehicles from China between January and May, surpassing more established buyers such as Russia, at $5 billion, and Belgium, at $3.8 billion. Chinese customs data show that shipments to Brazil surged 146.9% from $2.1 billion in the same period last year. At the time, Brazil ranked sixth among the largest importers. Electrified vehicles led the increase, with imports totaling $4.5 billion in the first five months of the year. Purchases in April and May alone reached $2.7 billion. Brazil also moved into first place specifically among importers of Chinese electric and hybrid cars. Belgium, at $3.8 billion, and the United Kingdom, at $3.4 billion, completed the top three. Electric and hybrid models accounted for 87% of China’s vehicle exports to Brazil in 2025, up from 33% in 2021. Stellantis to build Chinese Leapmotor cars in Brazil Nissan and Stellantis vie for Dongfeng partnership in Brazil Brazil’s vehicle sales may have best year since 2014 Analysts attribute the sharp acceleration to a rush to take advantage of lower import duties in Brazil, a more aggressive Chinese export strategy to offset weak domestic demand and growing consumer acceptance of electrified vehicles, whether fully electric or hybrid. Chinese manufacturers have come to dominate this segment, leaving established U.S., European and other Asian automakers trailing behind. Data from Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat, compiled by the Brazil-China Business Council, or CEBC, show that the country imported $5.35 billion in Chinese vehicles during the first half. That was more than twice the value of all Brazilian imports from France, which totaled $2.6 billion. Plug-in hybrids stood out among the categories, accounting for just over half of the total, at $2.79 billion. Electrified vehicles represented about 15% of everything Brazil imported from China during the period. Tariff rush Tulio Cariello, the CEBC’s director of content and research, said the import surge was partly driven by the timetable for increases in Brazilian tariffs, which rose from rates of 25% or 30%, depending on the category, to 35%. “Imports intensified as companies sought to avoid the tariff. From now on, there should be some stabilization as domestic sales are supplied from the inventories that were built up,” Cariello said. “On the other hand, I do not believe there will be a sharp decline, because interest among Brazilians is high, including among the middle and upper-middle classes. Electric cars have become an object of consumer desire, and electric cars have become synonymous with Chinese cars.” Brazil sold 215,023 light electrified vehicles from January through June, up 125% from 95,493 units in the same period last year, data from the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association (ABVE) show. That pace was six times faster than growth in the broader auto market, which expanded 19.4% during the period, based on figures from automakers association Anfavea. Electrified vehicles accounted for 18% of domestic sales in June, up from 7.7% a year earlier. Anfavea data also show that registrations of fully electric cars surged to 91,000 in the first half, from 31,000 in the same period of 2025, an increase of 193%. Plug-in hybrid registrations rose 90%, while conventional hybrids advanced 81%. Export push Fabiana D’Atri, an economist at Bradesco Asset Management (Bram) said the rise in imports also reflects China’s broader efforts to promote exports. “Domestic demand has fallen considerably. Second-quarter data show this divergence, with the domestic market growing at a much more moderate pace than exports. The external sector is complementing the domestic market,” D’Atri said. China’s gross domestic product expanded 4.3% year on year in the second quarter, below analysts’ expectations. Economists blamed weaker-than-anticipated consumption by households and the government. The performance has raised doubts about the country’s ability to meet Beijing’s annual growth target of between 4.5% and 5%. Exports, by contrast, rose 27% in June from a year earlier, well above the 18% forecast. Vehicle exports alone climbed 71.2% year on year to 1.06 million units, the Financial Times reported. BYD alone is estimated to have sold 175,000 vehicles abroad, up 95%. International sales represented 43% of the company’s production. China also sees electrified vehicles as globally competitive products equipped with advanced technology. “For Brazil and other markets, once products are tested and approved by consumers, it becomes a case of the more there are, the more there will be,” D’Atri said. “In that sense, I do not see the inflow of Chinese vehicles slowing. This is a structural change. Imports may decline as production becomes localized, but we know that this is a slow process.” At least eight Chinese brands already manufacture vehicles in Brazil or have announced plans to do so, either at their own factories or through partnerships with automakers already operating in the country. China, however, has more than 100 vehicle manufacturers, and D’Atri said not every brand entering Brazil is likely to establish local production. “Some products, even with the new tariffs, will retain attractive prices and a level of quality that is not available here, although their prices will become less appealing,” she said. “Consumers may choose to pay more for the overall package, and manufacturers may also offer discounts to remain competitive.” Local production The 35% tariff on electrified and hybrid vehicles, in effect since early July, was accompanied by a new $463 million duty-free import quota for semi-knocked-down (SKD) and completely knocked-down (CKD) vehicles. The renewal of the quota drew protests from Anfavea but is consistent with the federal government’s strategy of attracting Chinese automakers to Brazil, said João Carmo, an economist at consultancy 4intelligence. “It was expected, and it works both ways. The government is keeping a small door open to imports as a way of giving Chinese companies more time to establish themselves in the country and eventually bring production here,” Carmo said. He noted that recent incentive programs for the auto industry, including Move Brasil for taxi and ride-hailing drivers and the Mover program, favor energy efficiency. They therefore form part of the government’s broader incentive structure for electrifying the country’s vehicle fleet. The localization of production to supply the domestic market could eventually help rebalance or reverse Brazil’s vehicle trade deficit, Carmo said. “The country remains an exporter to Argentina, Colombia and Mexico, and Chinese companies are also interested in gaining access to those markets.” Brazil’s automotive trade balance ended the first half with a $5.32 billion deficit, the widest since the historical series began in 1997, as previously reported by Valor. Exports stagnated amid weaker demand in markets such as Argentina, while imports soared to $7.8 billion. China’s share of those imports jumped from 5% in 2021 to 72% last year. Fully electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles together increased their share from 17% to 79%. Trade diversion Welber Barral, a partner at consultancy BMJ, said another factor was the imposition by many developed countries of higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles than those adopted by Brazil. “That explains, to some extent, the diversion of trade toward the Brazilian market, which remains relatively more open than the others,” Barral said. He also said the war in the Middle East during the first half and the resulting increase in oil prices helped make electrified vehicles more attractive. “There is a view that [U.S. President Donald] Trump ultimately did a great deal to advance the green agenda because of the shocks and unpredictability surrounding fuel prices, particularly in developed countries.” D’Atri played down the importance of that episode. “I think this is more of a structural issue. The price shock was temporary, and there was no actual restriction on product availability, as there has been at other times,” she said. “Chinese cars have competitive advantages that do not depend on that one-off shock.” “The challenge lies elsewhere: parts availability and maintenance. But those problems have also diminished considerably. As companies establish themselves, they expand their after-sales operations and develop local partnerships with suppliers,” D’Atri added.