厄尔尼诺推高巴西甘蔗产量，中资糖企需警惕压榨延迟风险

More frequent rainfall makes it difficult for harvesting equipment to enter the fields, slowing fieldwork Wenderson Araujo/CNA The confirmation of El Niño and the possibility that it could become very strong by year-end point to a largely positive outlook for sugarcane production in Brazil’s Center-South region. More frequent rainfall forecast for the region should support crop development, increasing yields during both the remainder of the 2026/27 season and the next crop year. Excessive rain, however, could hinder harvesting and slow crushing at sugar-and-ethanol mills. At an event in the first half of the month, consultancy Hedgepoint left its estimate for the 2026/27 season virtually unchanged at 635 million tonnes of sugarcane in the Center-South. “The recent rains are delaying crushing but are not compromising the crop’s yield potential. On the contrary, they may support the development of late-season sugarcane,” said Lívea Coda, the consultancy’s market intelligence coordinator. According to Fabio Marin, a professor in the Department of Biosystems Engineering at Esalq/USP, El Niño years tend to benefit sugarcane in Brazil’s main producing region. “El Niño years, particularly when the phenomenon is strong, usually result in above-average production in the Center-South,” he said. Marin noted that the phenomenon’s most characteristic effects should be felt beginning in September, when warming in the Pacific Ocean starts to have a more pronounced influence on atmospheric circulation over Brazil. The above-average rainfall expected in the second half of the year should improve soil moisture and support regrowth in sugarcane fields. The current crop is already beginning to benefit, and the conditions are creating a positive outlook for 2027. “The sugarcane harvested this year is regrowing under much better moisture conditions. That is why I am already becoming very optimistic about 2027,” Marin said. The main risk, however, is the mills’ operating pace. More frequent rainfall makes it difficult for harvesting equipment to enter the fields, slowing fieldwork and potentially delaying crushing. Some of these effects have already been observed since June. “This season is likely to be marked by difficulties removing the sugarcane from the fields and processing it because of the rain,” the researcher said. Heavier rainfall also tends to limit gains in total recoverable sugar (ATR), an indicator that measures the concentration of sucrose in sugarcane. Sugar content could remain close to the average without reaching the levels usually recorded between August and September. Still, according to Marin, higher yields should offset this effect, keeping sugar production per hectare high. El Niño could also affect production among Brazil’s competitors. Hedgepoint lowered its forecasts for Thailand, India, Mexico, and parts of Europe, where drier and hotter conditions are expected and could reduce sugar supplies in the 2026/27 season. Translation: Todd Harkin