美国对巴西加征25%关税，中资纸业机械出口承压

Klabin’s industrial paper sacks and kraftliner exports are among products exposed to ew U.S. tariffs Divulgação Brazilian manufacturers, already contending with sharp declines in exports to the United States, are bracing for an even more difficult environment after Washington announced a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods on Wednesday (15). Concern is particularly acute in industries whose products had previously been exempt but will now face the levy, including dissolving pulp. Bracell, one of the country’s largest exporters of the product, is expected to be among the companies affected. Paper, wood panels, medium-density fiberboard, particleboard and laminate flooring will also be subject to the new tariff, the Brazilian Tree Industry association, known as Ibá, said. Hardwood and softwood pulp, as well as fluff pulp, will remain exempt. U.S. tariffs hit $11bn in exports, deepen Brazil trade slump Trump tariff on Brazil narrows but may hit 40% of exports to U.S. Products that were already outside the exemption list had been struggling to gain ground in the U.S. market. The additional tariff is now likely to make shipments commercially unviable, particularly for paper, a person familiar with the industry said on condition of anonymity. Sector exports to the U.S. were already falling sharply in the first half of the year. Paper shipments declined 48.5% by volume, sawn wood exports fell 36.6%, and plywood sales dropped 25.3%, Ibá data show. Klabin had already been feeling the impact, which could now intensify. Industrial paper sacks were the company’s hardest-hit product in the first quarter, contributing to a 39% decline in sales volume. Its eucalyptus-based kraftliner paper will also be affected. The companies did not comment. Ibá said it was closely monitoring developments. Machinery exposure The machinery industry is also highly concerned. The U.S. is currently its largest export market, accounting for more than 20% of total overseas sales, data from machinery association Abimaq show. The U.S. decision granted exemptions to industries such as civil aviation and semiconductors, but uncertainty remains because agricultural and industrial machinery, electrical equipment and a broad range of manufactured goods were left out, said Patrícia Gomes, Abimaq’s executive director for foreign markets. The electrical equipment industry is among the most exposed, particularly manufacturers of transformers, motors, generators and components for industrial machinery, which rank among its leading exports to the U.S., the Brazilian Electrical and Electronics Industry Association, known as Abinee, said. Hitachi Energy’s high-voltage equipment, cables, batteries and power-generation systems exported to the United States will be affected, said Glauco Freitas, the company’s CEO in Brazil. Freitas noted, however, that any impact would apply only to new orders because existing contracts include protection against newly imposed tariffs. He added that U.S. demand is so strong that the levy may not significantly reduce sales. “They need the equipment so badly to secure their infrastructure that price is not the main driver behind the purchasing decision.” Weg is another company expected to be affected, although the equipment manufacturer already operates 10 factories in the United States. The company declined to comment. The ultimate impact on equipment exports will also depend on exchange-rate movements, said Venilton Tadini, chief executive of the Brazilian Infrastructure and Base Industries Association (Abdib). Aviation exemption Embraer is among the major industrial companies that escaped the latest tariff round. “The decision recognizes the sector’s importance to the U.S. economy and Embraer’s contribution to the country’s aerospace industry, where we continue to invest,” the planemaker said. Other industries that had already faced steep declines in U.S. sales are now cutting their forecasts further. Footwear downgrade The Brazilian Footwear Industries Association (Abicalçados) now expects exports to fall 7.1% in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of a 3.6% decline. The industry unsuccessfully sought inclusion on the exemption list. “It is a setback for a relationship built over decades,” said Haroldo Ferreira, the association’s chief executive. Textile competition The Brazilian Textile and Apparel Industry Association (Abit) said the measure would undermine the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers against international rivals and could accelerate the transfer of production to other Mercosur countries, including Paraguay. “It could trigger another wave of investment aimed at escaping the tariff shock,” said Fernando Pimentel, the association’s superintendent director. Brazilian textile and apparel exports to the United States fell nearly 12% by value in the first half. Even so, the U.S. remains the largest overseas market for Brazilian clothing. Ceramic decline The U.S. had also been the leading destination for Brazilian ceramic tile exports before the tariffs altered trade flows. In 2024, the U.S. accounted for one-quarter of the industry’s overseas sales, generating $95 million in revenue. In 2025, after additional tariffs were imposed, export revenue fell nearly 32% and volume declined 24%, data from industry association Anfacer show. The downturn deepened in the first half of this year. Revenue from U.S. shipments dropped 48% and volume fell 46% from the same period a year earlier. Over the same period, Brazil’s total ceramic tile export volume rose 14%, while revenue increased 4.4% to $188.3 million. Companies offset some of the U.S. losses by expanding sales elsewhere, mainly in Paraguay, but also in Colombia and Ecuador, Anfacer said. Chemical costs For the chemical industry, the tariffs could generate $66 million in additional costs through the end of the year, or $133 million on an annualized basis, the Brazilian Chemical Industry Association, known as Abiquim, estimated. The calculation is based on trade flows between 2024 and the first half of 2026. Of the 1,177 product categories exported to the United States, 58% remain subject to the new tariff, while 42% were granted exemptions. Although exempt categories are in the minority, they account for most of the trade value—between 64% and 71% of Brazilian chemical sales to the U.S. The largest exempt products include calcined alumina, silicon, aluminum hydroxide and niobium oxide. Paints and varnishes, textile fibers, soaps, detergents and fragrances are among the most exposed categories. Pig iron relief Pig iron was also included on the exemption list. Fausto Varela, president of the Minas Gerais State Iron Industry Association, known as Sindifer-MG, said U.S. officials had accepted a technical case for excluding the product from the new tariff. “It is important to see that there was a technical argument. They say U.S. industry could be harmed if an additional tariff were imposed,” Varela said. He added that the industry was still awaiting the outcome of a separate U.S. investigation involving forced-labor provisions. “We hope the same argument will also apply in that case.”