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巴西资讯巴西贸易物流2026年7月17日

美国对巴西加征25%关税,大选前激化两党博弈

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Trump tariffs ignite blame game in presidential race

美国宣布对巴西出口商品加征25%关税,7月22日生效,理由涉及Pix支付、乙醇准入等。巴西大选前两党激烈攻讦,中资企业需关注巴美贸易关系变化及政策不确定性。

为什么值得关注

美国对巴西加征25%关税,7月22日生效,大选前激化两党博弈,可能影响巴美贸易关系及在巴中资企业的出口、采购与合规环境。

美国贸易代表办公室在对巴西贸易行为调查后,由特朗普总统批准,宣布对巴西出口商品加征25%关税,该措施将于7月22日生效。华盛顿方面列举的理由包括巴西对Pix即时支付系统的处理、乙醇市场准入限制以及腐败和森林砍伐问题。此时距巴西总统选举不到三个月,关税决定迅速成为选战核心议题,激化了劳工党与自由党关于主权、经济与背叛的激烈争论。对于在巴西经营的中资企业而言,这一事件可能影响巴美贸易关系走向,进而波及在巴中资的出口、采购及合规环境。

美国对巴西加征25%关税的决定,由特朗普总统批准,将于7月22日生效。美国贸易代表办公室在调查后做出这一决定,理由包括巴西对Pix即时支付系统的处理、乙醇市场准入限制以及腐败和森林砍伐问题。关税宣布后数小时内,巴西总统卢拉的竞选团队在社交媒体上发起协调行动,指责自由党总统候选人弗拉维奥·博索纳罗及其盟友破坏巴西经济与主权,劳工党官员称其为“叛徒”,并指控其服务于美国利益。卢拉和劳工党计划加强以捍卫主权和国家利益为核心的竞选活动。一条通过亲卢拉信息渠道传播的消息写道:“特朗普政府宣布对巴西加征25%关税,我们的使命很明确:传播真相!让我们展示谁在背后攻击我们的主权:博索纳罗家族及其盟友。”另一条消息称:“真正的爱国者捍卫巴西。大多数巴西人已经知道谁是真正的叛徒。”劳工党通讯秘书埃登·瓦拉达雷斯将“TariFlávio”(关税与弗拉维奥名字的组合)描述为“巴西政治史上最大的背叛行为”,并指出弗拉维奥在关税宣布前不久访美,正式请求推迟而非取消措施,认为推迟等于使贸易行动合法化。机构关系部长若泽·吉马良斯指责弗拉维奥及其家族充当“美国在巴西利益的游说者”。其他劳工党领袖也认为关税出于政治动机。面对批评,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗发推文称卢拉政府未能阻止特朗普的决定,并称卢拉为“巴西的拜登”,写道:“巴西的拜登变得暴躁、鲁莽,成为国家的危险。”今年5月底,弗拉维奥曾与爱德华多·博索纳罗一同访美并会见特朗普。本月早些时候,他再次赴美,向特朗普政府官员辩称现在加征关税将增强卢拉的政治地位,请求将措施推迟180天至10月大选之后。去年特朗普首次对巴西产品加征关税时,弗拉维奥和爱德华多曾公开支持这些措施,同时为其父亲、前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗寻求特赦。

对于在巴西的中资企业,底稿未直接涉及具体行业影响,但通过巴美贸易关系变化,可能间接传导至中资企业出口、采购及合规环节。巴西对美出口商品被加征25%关税,可能促使部分巴西出口商转向其他市场,包括中国,从而影响中资企业在巴西的采购成本与竞争格局。同时,巴西大选前两党围绕主权与经济的激烈争论,可能带来政策不确定性,影响中资企业的投资决策与合规环境。巴西监管机构如Receita Federal(联邦税务局)、CAMEX(外贸委员会)等可能在未来调整贸易政策,中资企业需密切关注。

CBI解读:底稿显示,美国对巴西加征关税的理由涉及Pix支付系统、乙醇准入、腐败与森林砍伐,这些议题与中资企业在巴西的业务关联度较低,但关税本身可能改变巴西出口流向。CBI认为,巴西大选前两党将关税问题政治化,可能加剧政策波动,中资企业需评估巴美贸易摩擦对自身供应链的间接影响。此外,弗拉维奥请求推迟关税180天至大选后,显示选举结果可能影响巴美贸易关系走向。

待观察:一是7月22日关税生效后,巴西对美出口数据变化及巴西政府可能的反制措施;二是巴西大选结果对巴美贸易政策的影响,尤其是若卢拉连任或弗拉维奥当选后的政策走向;三是中资企业是否因巴西出口转向而面临新的竞争或合作机会。

CBI 观察编辑判断

底稿显示关税理由涉及Pix支付、乙醇准入等,与中资企业直接关联度低,但CBI认为关税可能改变巴西出口流向,间接影响中资企业供应链。巴西大选前两党将关税问题政治化,政策不确定性上升,中资企业需关注选举结果对巴美贸易关系的后续影响。

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信息概要

类型
政策发布
方向
巴西
分类
贸易物流
层级
编辑整理
地点
巴西出口商、在巴中资企业、巴西劳工党与自由党
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资企业贸易商出口商
话题
贸易政治

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Trump tariffs ignite blame game in presidential race
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Trump tariffs ignite blame game in presidential race

With Brazil’s presidential election less than three months away, the new 25% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports, announced early Thursday, immediately became a campaign issue, as the Workers’ Party (PT) and the Liberal Party (PL) traded blame over President Donald Trump’s decision. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced the tariffs after an investigation into what the U.S. government described as unfair Brazilian trade practices. The measures, approved by President Trump, will take effect on July 22. Washington cited issues such as Brazil’s treatment of Pix, the country’s instant payment system; restrictions on ethanol market access; and concerns about corruption and deforestation. Within hours of the announcement, President Lula’s campaign launched a coordinated social media effort urging supporters to link the tariffs to the Bolsonaro family. The campaign accused Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, and his allies of undermining Brazil’s economy and sovereignty. PT officials branded him a “traitor” and alleged that he had worked in favor of U.S. interests. Lula and his party now plan to intensify a campaign focused on defending Brazil’s sovereignty and national interests while challenging the right’s traditional dominance on social media. One message, distributed through a pro-Lula messaging channel used to coordinate supporters on social media, read: “With the announcement of the new 25% Trump administration tariffs on Brazil, our MISSION IS CLEAR: SPREAD THE TRUTH! Let’s show who is behind this attack on our sovereignty: THE BOLSONARO FAMILY and its ALLIES.” Another message said: “True patriots defend Brazil. Most Brazilians already know who the real traitors are. Those who root against Brazil abroad will never defend Brazil at home.” PT communications secretary Éden Valadares described “TariFlávio”—a nickname coined by party supporters by combining “tariff” with Flávio’s name—as “the greatest act of betrayal in Brazil’s political history.” “The Bolsonaro family’s actions have gone far beyond legitimate political opposition. Beyond submitting Brazil’s sovereignty to U.S. interests, Flávio Bolsonaro’s deliberate efforts to persuade Trump to impose tariffs show that he prioritized personal and electoral interests over the defense of Brazil’s economy,” Valadares said. He noted that Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the United States shortly before the tariff announcement and formally requested that the measures be postponed rather than canceled, arguing that postponement would effectively legitimize the trade action. “The submission was clearly calculated. The subservience was thoroughly documented. The betrayal was recorded for history,” Valadares said. Institutional Relations Minister José Guimarães echoed the criticism, accusing Flávio Bolsonaro and his family of serving as “lobbyists for U.S. interests in Brazil.” He also said the senator’s attempt to blame Lula for the tariffs reflected “desperation” over the Banco Master investigation and its alleged links to businessman Daniel Vorcaro. Other PT leaders likewise portrayed the tariffs as politically motivated. Senate government leader Teresa Leitão said the new duties stemmed from “political reasons,” while Lower House PT caucus leader Pedro Uczai urged the government to invoke Brazil’s Reciprocity Law, adding that Brasília would take measures to protect companies, jobs and the broader economy. Facing criticism, Flávio Bolsonaro tweeted that Lula’s administration failed to stop Trump’s decision. “Lula is no longer fit to be Brazil’s president. We’re on a plane without a pilot,” he said. He also called Lula “Brazil’s Biden,” drawing a comparison to former U.S. President Joe Biden. “The Brazilian Biden has become grumpy, reckless and a danger to our nation. When people look at Lula, they don’t see the future. They see the past, stagnation, uncertainty, distrust, corruption, incompetence and revenge. Enough. Brazil has a future, but it has no more time to waste,” the senator wrote. In late May, amid political fallout from reports that he had requested financial backing from former banker Daniel Vorcaro of Banco Master, Flávio Bolsonaro visited the United States and met with President Trump alongside former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro. After the new tariffs were announced, opponents used the meeting to reinforce accusations that the Bolsonaro family had influenced the decision. Earlier this month, Flávio Bolsonaro returned to the United States and argued before Trump administration officials that imposing the tariffs now would strengthen Lula politically. He asked Washington to postpone the measures for 180 days—until after Brazil’s October presidential election. Last year, when Trump first imposed tariffs on Brazilian products, Flávio and Eduardo Bolsonaro publicly supported the measures while seeking amnesty for their father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a sentence for an attempted coup. They argued that the tariffs should remain in place until their father was released. President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Marcelo Camargo/Agência Brasil e Andressa Anholete/Agência Senado

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