← 返回巴西资讯
巴西资讯巴西金融监管2026年7月15日

巴西农村贷款逾期率升至8.8%,北部及无注册农户风险最高

分享

Farm delinquency rate rises to 8.8% in first quarter

2026年第一季度巴西农村个人贷款逾期率达8.8%,同比上升1.2个百分点,北部地区及无注册房产生产者逾期率最高,反映农户财务重建压力持续,可能影响在巴中资农业信贷及农机贸易回款周期。

为什么值得关注

8.8%逾期率创近年新高,北部及无注册农户风险突出,直接影响在巴中资农业信贷、农机贸易及供应链金融的回款安全。

巴西农村生产者的财务困境正在加剧。根据信用机构Serasa Experian最新调查,2026年第一季度巴西农村人口贷款逾期率(逾期超过180天)升至8.8%,较2025年同期上升1.2个百分点。该指标自去年以来持续攀升,覆盖个人与农业相关企业签订的债务。Serasa Experian农业业务负责人Marcelo Pimenta表示,逾期率逐步上升表明农村生产者在2026年初仍面临财务重建挑战,此前高成本、价格波动和信贷收紧周期的滞后影响仍在拖累行业现金流和还款能力。对于在巴西从事农业贸易、农机出口或农村信贷业务的中资企业而言,这一趋势意味着客户信用风险上升,回款周期可能延长。

按农场规模划分,无注册农村房产的生产者(潜在租户或家庭/企业集团成员)逾期率最高,达11%;大土地所有者次之,为9.9%;中型生产者(8.6%)和小型生产者(8.3%)相对较低。按地区看,北部地区逾期率最高,达13.2%,其次是东北部(10.2%)和中西部(10.1%),而东南部(7.3%)和南部(6.2%)最低。按年龄组划分,30至39岁生产者逾期率最高,50岁以上生产者逾期率低于8.7%,显示年轻农户还款压力更大。

对于在巴中资企业,这一数据直接关联多个业务环节。从事农机、化肥、种子等农业生产资料出口的企业,若采用赊销或分期付款模式,需重点关注北部、东北部及中西部客户的信用状况,尤其是无注册房产的农户群体。在巴西开展农村信贷或供应链金融的中资金融机构,应重新评估贷款组合中农业个人债务的风险敞口,特别是针对30至39岁年龄段的借款人。此外,底稿未涉及中资企业直接影响,但通过信贷收紧和农户还款能力下降,可能间接传导至农产品采购价格、仓储物流账期以及土地租赁市场。

CBI解读:底稿数据显示,巴西农村贷款逾期率已连续多个季度上升,且区域和规模分化明显。北部和东北部逾期率显著高于全国均值,反映出当地农业基础设施薄弱、信贷覆盖不足的结构性问题。CBI认为,这一趋势短期内难以逆转,因为高成本周期和信贷收紧的滞后效应仍在释放。与2024年相比,2026年第一季度的逾期率水平已接近2020年疫情初期的高点,但此次驱动因素更多来自成本端而非需求端。中资企业应关注巴西央行(BCB)后续是否调整农村信贷利率或放宽再融资条件,以及农业部长会议(MAPA)是否推出专项纾困计划。

待观察:一是巴西央行2026年第二季度货币政策会议(预计6月)是否调整Selic利率,进而影响农村信贷成本;二是MAPA是否在7月前出台针对北部和东北部农户的债务重组或补贴政策;三是Serasa Experian将于2026年7月发布的第二季度逾期率数据,若继续上升则确认趋势恶化。

CBI 观察编辑判断

底稿数据显示逾期率上升主要由成本端驱动,与2020年疫情冲击不同。CBI认为,北部和东北部逾期率偏高反映结构性信贷缺口,中资企业若在这些区域有业务需主动收紧信用条款,并关注巴西央行及MAPA后续政策动向。

这条资讯对你有帮助吗?

信息概要

类型
市场数据
方向
巴西
分类
金融监管
层级
编辑整理
地点
在巴中资农业信贷机构、农机出口商、农业生产资料贸易企业
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资农业企业农机及农资出口商农村信贷及供应链金融机构
话题
金融行业趋势

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Farm delinquency rate rises to 8.8% in first quarter
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Farm delinquency rate rises to 8.8% in first quarter

Brazilian farmers are becoming increasingly indebted. Amid factors such as tight profit margins and restricted access to credit, the delinquency rate among the rural population reached 8.8% in the first quarter of this year, up 1.2 percentage points from the same period in 2025, according to a survey by Serasa Experian. Tri-fuel ship refuels with ethanol at Port of Santos Leather removed from EU deforestation law The indicator, which increased throughout last year, tracks overdue debts held by individuals that have remained unpaid for more than 180 days and were contracted with companies operating in agribusiness-related sectors. “The gradual increase in delinquency shows that, at the beginning of 2026, rural producers were still facing challenges in rebuilding their financial capacity. Even with a more favorable outlook for some agribusiness segments, the effects of previous cycles marked by high costs, price volatility, and tighter credit conditions continue to weigh on cash flow and repayment capacity across the sector,” said Marcelo Pimenta, head of agribusiness at Serasa Experian. According to the survey, producers with no registered rural property information—potential tenants or members of family or business groups—posted the highest delinquency rate, at 11%. Large landowners followed, with a 9.9% rate. Medium-sized producers (8.6%) and small producers (8.3%) recorded the lowest delinquency levels in the analysis by farm size. Among Brazil’s regions, the North posted the highest delinquency rate among individual rural producers in the first quarter of 2026, at 13.2%. It was followed by the Northeast (10.2%) and the Central-West (10.1%). The Southeast (7.3%) and the South (6.2%) recorded the country’s lowest rates. Serasa also highlighted significant differences in delinquency levels by age group. “Delinquency among individual rural producers is concentrated in what can be considered the economically most active segment of the population. In the first quarter of 2026, the highest rates were recorded among producers aged 30 to 39, followed by those aged 18 to 29 and 40 to 49,” the company said. Among producers aged 50 and older, delinquency rates declined steadily, falling below 8.7%, indicating a lower incidence of overdue debt among older farmers.

觉得有价值?

分享给需要了解巴西市场的朋友

帮助更多中国企业看懂巴西,做成生意

China Brazil Insight · 中巴合作价值链中的信息节点

这条资讯影响你的业务吗?

CBI 提供从信息到行动的完整支持