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巴西最低运费法案周二闯关,中资物流企业需警惕罢工风险

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Brazil pushes trucking bill despite dispute over protest amnesty

巴西政府推动最低运费法案周二前通过,拟否决卡车司机大赦条款,若失败可能引发罢工,冲击供应链和食品价格,在巴中资物流及消费品企业需提前应对。

为什么值得关注

最低运费法案若未通过可能引发卡车司机罢工,直接冲击中资物流、农产品及消费品企业的供应链稳定性和成本。

巴西总统卢拉政府正全力推动国会于周二前通过一项最低运费法案,以防范卡车司机罢工导致的供应链中断。尽管参议院尚未达成协议,政府最担忧的是众议院添加的大赦条款——该条款赦免2022年大选后参与封锁公路的卡车司机罚款。政府已明确计划否决该条款,若国会推翻否决,则将诉诸最高法院。法案还包含为长途卡车司机设定每月5000雷亚尔最低工资的内容。对于在巴西从事物流、农产品、消费品分销的中资企业,该法案的走向直接关系到运输成本与供应链稳定性,需密切关注周二投票结果及后续罢工动向。

巴西总统卢拉政府正与时间赛跑,力争在周二前让国会通过一项关于最低运费的法案,以在选举前几个月避免潜在的供应中断。政府已告知政党领袖,其首要关切是众议院添加的条款——该条款赦免因参与2022年Jair Bolsonaro选举失败后公路封锁而被罚款的卡车司机。政府计划否决该条款,若国会推翻否决,则打算在最高法院挑战该否决,此举仍可使法案在失效前成为法律。总统府官员认为,批准该措施对避免卡车司机罢工至关重要。政府评估认为,即使国会因法案周四到期而承担更大责任,控制任何中断的后果也将困难。因此,政府领导人周一与国会领袖会谈以争取支持。

对于在巴西的中资企业,尤其是涉及物流、农产品贸易、消费品分销和电商的公司,该法案的走向具有直接冲击。若法案未通过或大赦条款引发卡车司机不满,罢工风险将显著上升,可能导致公路运输中断、货物延迟交付、仓储成本上升,并推高食品等关键商品价格。中资企业需评估自身供应链对公路运输的依赖程度,提前与物流供应商沟通应急方案,并关注巴西国家陆路运输局(ANTT)及农业、畜牧业和供应部(MAPA)的后续监管动态。底稿未涉及中资企业直接影响,但通过运输中断和通胀传导,中资消费品和农业进口商将首当其冲。

CBI解读:底稿显示,政府已假设无法就大赦条款达成协议,但准备无论如何推进投票。这表明卢拉政府将避免罢工视为政治优先项,甚至不惜诉诸最高法院。CBI认为,尽管政府态度强硬,但卡车司机群体在2022年已展现动员能力,若大赦被否决,局部罢工仍可能发生,尤其是在农业主产区。对比2023年柴油涨价引发的罢工威胁,此次法案若未通过,供应链冲击可能更持久。中资企业应参考2023年经验,提前建立至少两周的库存缓冲,并分散运输商以降低单一依赖风险。

待观察:1)周二国会投票结果及大赦条款是否被单独移除;2)若大赦被否决,卡车司机工会是否宣布罢工及具体时间表;3)巴西国家供应公司(Conab)及地理与统计研究所(IBGE)发布的食品通胀数据是否因法案受阻而加速上升。

CBI 观察编辑判断

底稿显示政府已准备否决大赦条款并诉诸最高法院,表明其避免罢工的政治决心。CBI认为,即使法案通过,大赦被否决仍可能引发局部罢工,中资企业需提前制定运输应急方案。

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信息概要

类型
政策发布
方向
巴西
分类
宏观市场
层级
编辑整理
地点
中资物流、农产品贸易、消费品分销、电商企业
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资物流企业在巴中资农产品贸易商在巴中资消费品分销商
话题
政策法律公共事件

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Brazil pushes trucking bill despite dispute over protest amnesty
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Brazil pushes trucking bill despite dispute over protest amnesty

Guilherme Boulos Maira Erlich/Bloomberg Determined to prevent potential supply disruptions just months before the elections, President Lula’s government aims for Congress to approve legislation on minimum freight rates by Tuesday, even if no agreement is reached with the Senate. The administration has already told party leaders that its primary concern is a clause added by the Lower House that grants amnesty to truckers fined for participating in highway blockades following Jair Bolsonaro’s 2022 election defeat. The administration plans to veto this section. Should Congress override the veto, the government intends to challenge the veto in the Supreme Court, a move that could still allow the legislation to become law before it lapses. Boulos opens talks with truck drivers in bid to ease tensions Brazil weighs up to R$20bn to expand truck renewal program Officials at the presidential palace believe that approval of the measure is essential to avert a truckers’ strike. The government’s assessment is that, even if Congress bears greater responsibility because the legislation expires on Thursday, containing the consequences of any disruption would be difficult. Government leaders therefore spent Monday in talks with congressional leaders in an effort to secure support for the measure. The administration is particularly concerned about the impact a truckers’ strike could have on the economy and consumers, especially food prices. Since the beginning of the year, the government has closely monitored food inflation, viewing it as a politically sensitive issue that could undermine Lula’s re-election campaign. The government is therefore already working on the assumption that no agreement will be reached on the amnesty provision but is prepared to move ahead with the vote regardless. The disputed language states that “all fines imposed on freight carriers, whether individuals or companies, and on drivers penalized for participating in demonstrations, road blockades, or related acts anywhere in Brazil during 2022 shall be annulled.” The government is expected to seek a separate vote to remove the provision. Even if that effort fails, it will continue to support the bill’s passage on the understanding that Lula will veto the amnesty. If Congress overturns the veto, the administration plans to litigate the issue before the Supreme Court. Guilherme Boulos, the minister in charge of the Presidential Secretariat-General, told Valor that the measure is expected to be approved on Tuesday. In recent months, Boulos has held meetings with truckers’ representatives to maintain dialogue and gauge sentiment within the sector. His ministry oversees the government’s relations with social movements. The measure was announced in March by then-Transport Minister Renan Filho to strengthen enforcement of Brazil’s minimum freight rate policy and to increase penalties for violations. It came amid truckers’ threats to strike as diesel prices rose and tensions in the Middle East mounted. The government is now monitoring truckers’ mobilization nationwide and believes the movement will lose momentum once Congress approves the measure. The Lower House approved the proposal in June after an agreement between the government and truckers. During the floor vote, lawmakers from the Workers’ Party (PT), the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), and the Green Party (PV) sought to remove the amnesty provision through a separate vote, but the effort was defeated. As approved by the Lower House, the measure would cancel fines imposed through judicial or administrative decisions, as well as civil and administrative penalties. According to Congressman Zé Trovão of the Liberal Party (PL), the bill’s rapporteur, the amnesty was a non-negotiable demand from truckers. The proposal would also cancel fines already registered as public debt and suspend ongoing collection proceedings. On Monday, Randolfe Rodrigues, the government’s leader in Congress, confirmed that the administration intends to veto the amnesty provision. “I believe we have reached a good agreement for the vote. I will communicate that agreement to Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, and we expect to bring the measure to the floor tomorrow. That provision will certainly be vetoed. Since there is no time for the bill to return to the Lower House before it lapses on Thursday, the government’s commitment is that this provision will be vetoed,” Rodrigues said. Another issue that raised concerns within the government and among some private-sector groups was the creation of a national minimum wage for long-haul truck drivers. Zé Trovão added a provision establishing a monthly minimum salary of R$5,000 for drivers employed in Brazil’s freight transport sector who remain away from their company’s premises or their homes for more than 24 hours. Rodrigues said an agreement had been reached that a provisional executive order is not the appropriate legal instrument to set the value of a national wage floor for truck drivers. Senators are therefore expected to amend the bill to establish only the existence of a wage floor, leaving the executive branch to determine its value. “Specifically regarding the amount of the wage floor, we agreed to preserve the concept while adjusting the amount. Supreme Court case law makes clear that Congress cannot establish wage floors through ordinary legislation. We have an agreement with the truckers on this point as well. So we can create the wage floor without necessarily setting its value,” Rodrigues told reporters after the meeting. He also said the Senate’s changes would be drafted as technical amendments that would not alter the bill’s substance, avoiding the need to send it back to the Lower House. Senate President Alcolumbre has not yet scheduled the measure for a floor vote because lawmakers have not reached agreement on its contents.

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