强厄尔尼诺下半年来袭，在巴中资农业能源企业需提前应对通胀与供应链风险

Amanda Schutze Divulgação The federal government has put El Niño on its radar as climate models increasingly point to a strong event in the second half of the year, raising concerns over higher food and energy prices and the economic fallout from extreme weather. While its intensity and full impact remain uncertain, the phenomenon is expected to bring drought to northern Brazil and parts of the Northeast, heavy rainfall in the South and extreme heat across central regions. Government to raise inflation forecast as El Niño fuels food prices Brazil weighs potential impact of strong El Niño on agriculture Economists warn that El Niño represents a macroeconomic shock that could require additional public spending, complicate efforts to lower interest rates and even influence next year’s election, which is expected to coincide with the peak of the climate event. Financial markets already expect El Niño to add 0.3 percentage points to inflation this year. The Finance Ministry is also expected to revise its current 4.5% inflation forecast upward. The phenomenon has begun to appear in Central Bank documents as a source of uncertainty, warranting greater caution in monetary policy. “Climate models indicate a very high probability of a strong El Niño in the second half of the year, and it has consequences for the economy: agriculture, energy, logistics, inflation, infrastructure and GDP,” said Amanda Schutze, professor and coordinator of FGV Climate, a research center at the Fundação Getulio Vargas. “This is a macroeconomic shock, not just a climate issue.” Food inflation, she added, is likely to be the first visible consequence. According to the president’s chief of staff’s office, the government is working on three fronts: technical monitoring of climate and hydrological conditions; coordination of sector-specific prevention, preparedness and response measures; and cooperation with state and local governments, particularly in support of vulnerable communities. An interagency emergency coordination center has been established at the presidential palace in Brasília, bringing together agencies responsible for weather forecasting, civil defense, public health, social assistance, environmental protection, wildfire response, water resources, energy, inland waterways, food supply, public communications and coordination with regional governments. Among the preventive measures already underway, the chief of staff’s office highlighted a record R$337.5 million budget allocation to combat deforestation, strengthen environmental enforcement, and prevent and fight wildfires. Staffing has also been expanded at the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama) and the Chico Mendes Institute for Biodiversity Conservation (ICMBio). “In addition to the budget increase, the federal government has hired the largest contingent of federal wildfire brigades in history, totaling 4,410 personnel—2,600 from Ibama and 1,810 from ICMBio—while expanding operational infrastructure for 2026 with 19 helicopters, 18 water-dropping aircraft, one aircraft for transporting firefighting crews, 27 specialized firefighting vehicles and two operational support bases,” the office said. The National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) has mapped municipalities and regions most vulnerable to droughts, heat waves, wildfires, floods and landslides. The information has been shared with state and local governments to support preventive measures and contingency planning. Brazil’s public healthcare system (SUS) has also been prepared to address risks associated with extreme heat, smoke, water quality, respiratory diseases, mosquito-borne illnesses and emergency shelter operations. Last week, the Health Ministry announced the creation of eight regional bases for the National Health Emergency Response Force, enabling teams to reach disaster areas within 12 hours and begin operations within 72 hours. The Agriculture Ministry has created a working group to assess El Niño’s impact on farming and livestock production and propose mitigation measures to protect farmers. The group will identify the most vulnerable agricultural supply chains, focusing on soybeans, corn, wheat, beans, sugar cane, coffee and cassava, while also evaluating implications for rural insurance. “The federal government’s coordinated response ensures not only advance preparation for El Niño but also continued support for affected communities,” the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development, which oversees civil defense, said in a statement. The ministry has established a permanent monitoring group and is working with state and local governments to expand early-warning systems. Reservoirs and river basins are also under close monitoring, the chief of staff’s office said, citing concerns over water supply, inland waterway operations and potential impacts on the electricity sector. The government has also expanded preventive investments through the Sustainable and Resilient Cities component of the New Growth Acceleration Program (Novo PAC), which includes R$625 billion earmarked for disaster prevention, sanitation, housing, urban mobility and solid waste management. According to the Cities Ministry, R$33.5 billion is currently being invested in urban drainage and hillside stabilization projects. Projects specifically aimed at reducing flood risks account for R$9.11 billion in investments across 197 municipalities, benefiting an estimated 2.76 million people. “These investments are strategic considering that around 9 million Brazilians live in areas at risk of flash floods and flooding, spread across 2,086 municipalities,” the ministry said. The Cities Ministry also supports water supply projects for states and municipalities through investments exceeding R$25 billion. In Schutze’s assessment, Brazil has made significant progress in climate monitoring and sectoral planning since the devastating floods that struck the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul in May 2024. “But we still have a very significant adaptation gap,” she said, referring to infrastructure projects needed to make cities more resilient to extreme weather. The challenge, she noted, is global. “Everyone still needs to scale up implementation.” “Extreme weather events are no longer exceptions, so they really need to be incorporated into our economic planning and our investment strategy,” she said. “Just as the private sector already incorporates climate risk, it’s important for the country to recognize that there is no going back. Climate risk exists, just like fiscal risk or exchange-rate risk.” Last week, Finance Ministry Economic Policy Secretary Débora Freire told Valor that the government is expected to raise its inflation forecast for this year because of El Niño. Similar concerns appear in the Central Bank’s June Monetary Policy Report, which warns that El Niño poses risks to food-at-home prices, a major component of Brazil’s benchmark consumer price index (IPCA). “The likely transition to El Niño conditions in the second half of the year adds uncertainty to prices in this segment, which is typically more volatile and highly dependent on supply conditions,” the report said. The Central Bank’s baseline scenario assumes the development of a strong El Niño. Its latest forecast expects the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which stood at -0.1 degrees Celsius in the three-month period ending in May, to reach 2.1 degrees Celsius in the fourth quarter, then gradually return to normal. In the March Monetary Policy Report, the projection had been 1.3 degrees Celsius by year-end. The Central Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease after the phenomenon subsides. “Considering the projected normalization of climate conditions from early 2027 onward, the effect on 12-month inflation over the relevant policy horizon is relatively modest compared with the impact expected at the end of 2026 and during the first three quarters of 2027,” the report said. Financial institutions responding to the Central Bank’s survey ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting estimated that El Niño would add a median of 0.3 percentage point to inflation in 2026 and 0.4 percentage point in 2027. Bruno Corano, an economist and chief executive of Corano Capital, said the precise impact of El Niño on Brazil remains uncertain. Even so, he warned that it could fuel inflation and make it even harder for the Central Bank to lower interest rates. Natural disasters could also increase public spending at a time when investors remain concerned about Brazil’s fiscal policy. Political scientist Leandro Consentino, a professor at Insper, believes El Niño could also influence the electoral landscape. “It could have a very significant impact by reducing agricultural output, leading to higher food inflation, which is a serious problem for the government’s reelection prospects,” he said. “Food inflation is always the enemy of an incumbent’s campaign.” He also warned of the political consequences of climate-related disasters. “Urban infrastructure problems eventually take their toll,” he said. “Flooding is no longer an unexpected event, and public officials could have prepared for it.”