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Renner cut 2026 growth forecast, ruled out expanding customer credit, taking a “cautious” approach Ana Paula Paiva/Valor The difficult macroeconomic environment is taking a toll on the performance of Brazil’s major publicly traded retailers this year, with the first batch of second-quarter earnings showing a growing negative impact from high household debt on sales. Companies say delinquency remains under control, but have already warned that broader indicators point to rising household defaults nationwide. The tougher environment has affected even the food retail market—theoretically less vulnerable to an initial demand contraction than businesses dependent on credit—as well as apparel and footwear, electronics and technology, executives told analysts last week. Consumer spending growth set for second-weakest pace since pandemic Assaí profit jumps on tax credits despite sluggish sales Interest rates erode profits despite revenue growth at listed firms Business confidence falls in July, FGV says Companies have detailed internal measures they plan to take in the second half, as the election race gets underway, to halt the slowdown or improve their bottom-line results. GPA, owner of Pão de Açúcar, says it will exercise greater spending discipline through year-end, while Magazine Luiza is preparing to strike agreements with more competing platforms to boost online sales, which declined in the first half. Assaí, meanwhile, is sticking with its “take-from-the-competition” strategy, accelerating the rollout of pharmacies inside its stores this year to tap a new segment and return to faster growth. Renner said Friday (7) what it will not do to improve its weak April-June results: extend more credit through its Realize financial arm. “We remain cautious and more selective in our credit origination,” CFO Daniel dos Santos told analysts. The company also warned in its earnings report that as of June 30, Brazil had 83.7 million people with overdue debts, compared with 77.8 million a year earlier, “representing about half of the economically active population, according to Serasa’s Default Map.” The market’s negative sentiment weighed on retail stocks in Friday’s trading session (7), with the sector spending part of the day among the biggest decliners on the benchmark stock index Ibovespa. Shares of Renner, Magalu, and Assaí were sharply lower in the morning. The three stocks ended the day down 8%, 3.72%, and 2.94%, respectively. The move is affecting the short- and medium-term performance of the Consumption Index (Icon), the main benchmark tracking shares of Brazil’s major retailers as well as service companies. Over the past six months, Icon has fallen 17.27%, according to calculations by Valor, closing Friday at 2,830 points. Over the same period, the Ibovespa posted a smaller decline of 7.37%. So far in 2026, Icon is down 9%, while the Ibovespa has gained 7%. According to Alexandre Santoro, CEO of GPA, in a letter accompanying the second-quarter earnings report, the macroeconomic environment remained difficult, “marked by higher household debt, as well as rising delinquency, and by greater competition for disposable income among consumption, financial expenses and new categories of discretionary spending, such as betting platforms.” The executive also said the company, which is undergoing an out-of-court restructuring, is implementing an efficiency plan involving cuts in expenses and capital expenditures. So far, it has delivered slightly more than 50% of the savings expected under the plan, and this effort will also involve tighter control of operating expenses. GPA’s net revenue fell 9.6% from April through June compared with 2025, while its net loss widened 16% to R$252 million. At Assaí, revenue rose 0.9% to R$19.1 billion—below the inflation rate for the period—as lower volumes and consumers trading down from more expensive to cheaper brands weighed on sales, the retailer said during an earnings call. In an example presented during Friday’s call (7), a shopping cart containing 91 kilograms of products would cost R$830 using leading brands and R$437 using alternative brands. In other words, as consumers increasingly trade down, the retailer suffers a significant decline in the value of sales. Assaí’s net profit more than doubled to R$537 million, driven by tax credits and improved financial results. In the fashion segment, the World Cup and the weak macroeconomic environment hurt sales at publicly traded retailers, according to second-quarter reports. In a segment where impulse purchases are increasingly important, competing for consumers’ attention with games played at different times—in an economy with less disposable income—proved particularly difficult for retailers. Adding to the challenges, this occurred as the federal government decided, after May, to cut the 20% import tax on products coming from abroad, directly affecting apparel imported from China, which began entering Brazil in larger volumes. Data released by the major chains show that Renner was the hardest hit, followed by C&A and Riachuelo, according to Valor calculations. According to financial statements, apparel revenue rose 8.9% at Riachuelo, 5.6% at C&A, and 2.5% at Renner. In same-store sales—stores operating for more than 12 months—the gap between this year’s and 2025’s figures stands out. Last year, C&A’s same-store sales rose 17.1%; this year, growth slowed to 4.1%. At Riachuelo, the pace fell to just over half, from 15.8% growth last year to 7.8% from April through June. Renner posted the sharpest decline among comparable-store bases in the second quarter across all the chains, with growth of just 1.5% this year versus 18.6% in 2025. The high comparison base naturally tends to weigh on this year’s figure, but analysts were struck by the magnitude of the slowdown in 2026. “The World Cup affected foot traffic until the end of the games, and once Brazil was eliminated [from the tournament], that improved somewhat, but the impact continued through the end,” said André Michel Farber, CEO of Riachuelo. C&A CEO Paulo Correa told analysts on Wednesday (5) that during previous World Cups, demand declined during the games but returned close to normal afterward. This year was different. “There was an impact on sales every week, even after Brazil was eliminated.” “Our growth would have been higher if not for the World Cup. There were impacts, but I’m also concerned about economic activity. In any case, I have a positive view of the second half,” he said. It is unlikely that the slowdown in sales can be attributed solely to the tournament, which is why companies also cited the macroeconomic impact of weakening demand. In any case, amid the uncertainty, the market is likely to wait for third-quarter data to quantify the effect of the slowdown, which became intertwined with the impact of the games. Renner’s revision announced Thursday (6), cutting its 2026 net revenue growth forecast from 9%-13% to 4%-8% after weaker-than-expected second-quarter sales, is one way of preparing for an environment that has turned tougher than anticipated. Benefiting from the World Cup, Magazine Luiza saw demand for televisions, home appliances such as refrigerators and microwaves, and furniture increase 39%, 15%, and 10%, respectively, at its physical stores. The retailer’s store operation also grew 10.3% from April through June compared with 2025. That was not enough, however, to support the group’s overall sales for the quarter. From April through June, Magalu’s net revenue fell 2.6% to R$8.9 billion, weighed down by weaker online demand, which has a greater impact on the company’s overall figures. E-commerce shrank by nearly 12%, and the channel accounts for 65% of sales. “Listing products through third-party partnerships is a short-term initiative to resume online growth while maintaining profitability,” CEO Frederico Trajano told analysts Friday. Starting in October, the company, which began selling on Amazon in June, will have its products eligible for Prime and will provide logistics services for the platform. Trajano also said the retailer is expected to announce new partnerships over the coming months, “or even in the coming weeks.” Industry sources are considering the possibility of an agreement with Mercado Libre. “We believe we will be able to resume online growth, which was hurt in the first half while maintaining profitability.” The retailer’s net loss widened 197% to R$72 million from April through June. Trajano also referred to “hundreds of initiatives” to automate operations and further review expenses. “We have had a hiring freeze since the beginning of the year. We are also exercising tight control over all expense lines, using our initiatives for matrix-based expense management. We have consultants supporting us, and there is still a lot more to harvest in terms of cost reductions. There is significant room for savings.” (Vitória Nascimento contributed reporting)