强厄尔尼诺81%概率袭击巴西，南里奥格兰德州3000万雷亚尔备战，中资基建农业需警惕

Flooding in Venâncio Aires (Rio Grande do Sul) last month: with reconstruction still underway, the state needs to improve its resilience Leandro Osório/AtoPress/Agência O Globo Brazilian states most exposed to El Niño are stepping up preparations for extreme weather, as forecasts indicate a high probability that the phenomenon will intensify between October and December. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 81% chance of El Niño reaching that intensity in the final quarter of the year and a 97% chance that it will persist at that level into the first quarter of 2027. El Niño pushes Brazil soy farmers toward drought-resistant seeds Socioeconomic impact of El Niño is growing, top expert says Brazilian farmers adjust plans to face strongest El Niño on record Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) has warned that El Niño is likely to increase the risk of extreme rainfall, landslides and flooding in southern Brazil. The North and Northeast, meanwhile, could face worsening drought and a greater risk of wildfires, a pattern seen during other El Niño episodes this decade. Central areas of the country are also expected to experience more frequent heat waves and low humidity. Rio Grande do Sul is among the states on highest alert. In May 2024, extreme rainfall caused catastrophic flooding that affected more than 90% of the state’s municipalities and killed 185 people. In response, the state government created Plano Rio Grande, a reconstruction and climate-resilience program backed by federal funding that has invested in stronger infrastructure and measures to help cities adapt to extreme weather. The initiative followed criticism that state and municipal authorities had failed to address the region’s vulnerability to extreme weather and had neglected even the maintenance of infrastructure that could have helped mitigate the disaster's impact. Since the program was created in May 2024, reconstruction efforts have incorporated a series of adaptations and new tools that Governor Eduardo Leite says will leave the state much better equipped to cope with the potential effects of El Niño than it was two years ago. “I can’t say we’re fully protected, but significant work has already been done to restore protection systems, invest in more resilient roads and substantially improve our ability to evacuate people from high-risk areas. That gives us confidence that we’re better prepared,” Eduardo Leite told Valor. Among the investments, Leite cited the installation of 129 hydrometeorological monitoring stations designed to provide earlier warnings to communities at risk from river flooding. He said the state has increased its civil defense capacity fourfold by adding technical staff, geologists, and meteorologists. Additionally, the government has allocated funds to help municipalities enhance their civil defense efforts and upgrade urban drainage systems. Warnings from scientists have prompted Rio Grande do Sul to create an additional program, Prepara RS, launched in June. “We decided to create this additional program to make new resources available to municipalities,” Leite said. “There will be more than R$30 million for around 150 municipalities that have been most affected.” The money is intended to help the most exposed cities buy equipment and prepare response plans for events that could result from El Niño during the second half of the year. Leite emphasized that El Niño does not automatically imply rainfall of the same scale or duration as in 2024. However, he recognized that the warming of Pacific waters serves as a renewed trigger for extreme weather, especially since the state has not had sufficient time to restore its climate-resilient infrastructure that has weakened over the years. “The new protection systems will give Rio Grande do Sul greater capacity. That’s part of a process that will unfold over the coming years,” said Leite, who completes his second consecutive term in December and cannot run for office again this year. “We’re talking about five to 10 years of construction and investment. This will need to span several administrations. To ensure continuity, oversight by civil society will be important.” Colonel Luciano Chaves Boeira, Rio Grande do Sul’s civil defense coordinator, said the main strategy ahead of El Niño is to strengthen the ability of municipalities to respond to disasters. In July, streets in Lajeado flooded after the Taquari River overflowed again. “We can’t let our guard down,” Boeira said. “Rio Grande do Sul has repeatedly suffered from extreme weather events. That’s why we’re rebuilding the state, prioritizing climate adaptation and resilience. But for now, the most important thing will be strengthening municipalities’ civil defense and emergency-response capabilities.” In Santa Catarina, another southern state frequently threatened by extreme weather, authorities are accelerating preparations ahead of the more dangerous summer rainy season. According to Colonel Fabiano Souza, the state’s civil defense secretary, the government has issued a climate alert decree and established a crisis committee that requires all state departments to identify public services and infrastructure that could be affected by flooding and landslides. Authorities have also begun drafting contingency plans for various scenarios. The decree sharply reduces the time needed for the state to formally recognize municipal emergencies and disasters during the El Niño period, allowing relief measures to be activated more quickly. “We designed several triggers that allow us to grant expedited recognition even if a municipality has not been able to submit its request in time,” Souza said. A process that traditionally takes 20 to 40 days can now be completed within 48 hours, including 24 hours for civil defense authorities and another 24 hours for the state government to recognize the emergency. “That will allow us to respond more quickly,” Souza said. In southeastern Brazil, which lies in a transition zone for El Niño but could still face heavy rainfall and heat waves, São Paulo’s civil defense agency began training municipal officials and farmers in April to prepare them for the potential effects. “Between April and May alone, we held 16 in-person training sessions, each lasting two days, and trained around 4,000 people who can pass that knowledge on to others,” said Captain Maxwell de Souza, a spokesperson for the state’s civil defense agency. He also highlighted R$400 million allocated to São Paulo’s wildfire prevention and response program, aimed at preventing and fighting forest fires and other large-scale vegetation fires. In Espírito Santo, state civil defense coordinator Colonel Benício Ferrari said authorities are preparing for different types of extreme weather. “Because we’re in a transition zone for El Niño, we could face both drought and irregular rainfall,” he said. The state government has allocated funds to supply municipalities and rural producers with tools for soil management, water storage, and animal feed. Additionally, it is training municipal civil defense teams and urging local governments to coordinate their responses to potential impacts. “We already prepare for drought every year, but we’re going to intensify those efforts because of the warnings,” Ferrari said. In Pará, in the Amazon region, where a stronger El Niño poses particular risks of low river levels and forest fires, the state environment department said it is monitoring forecasts and coordinating preparations with firefighters and civil defense authorities. The state also operates a wildfire prevention and response program with 140 forest brigade members stationed at 11 strategic bases to prevent and fight fires in priority areas, the Pará government said in a statement to Valor. At the federal level, preparations for El Niño are being coordinated by the presidential chief of staff’s office, which is bringing together different ministries to monitor the phenomenon and coordinate risk-reduction measures, emergency responses and public communication. The federal government outlined its strategy as having three primary parts: technical monitoring of climate and hydrological conditions; coordinating sector-specific prevention, preparedness, and response efforts; and working with states, municipalities, and civil society, especially to safeguard vulnerable populations. The government emphasized the importance of avoiding alarmism. It said decisions should rely on technical assessments from agencies involved in Brazil’s disaster monitoring, weather, space research, water management, and civil defense. Despite this, the government has approved R$337.5 million in emergency funds for the Environment and Climate Change Ministry, raising the budget for these efforts by 24% compared to 2025. Adjusted for inflation, funding provided by the current administration is 133% higher than under the previous government, the presidential chief of staff’s office said. Of the total, R$194.4 million will go to the federal environmental agency Ibama for wildfire prevention and control, as well as environmental enforcement. The funding will cover measures such as hiring temporary firefighters, purchasing protective equipment, leasing aircraft, and strengthening logistical capacity. Another R$143.1 million will go to ICMBio, the federal agency responsible for protected areas, to expand enforcement and wildfire prevention and response in federal conservation areas. The money will be used to hire and train personnel, purchase equipment, expand monitoring systems and strengthen operational infrastructure.