巴西7月顺差71亿美元，油价推高贸易额，中资进口成本承压

André Valerio: China and the U.S. are expected to increase their demand for oil Washington Alves/Valor Higher average prices, driven largely by oil and its spillover effects on other goods, more than offset a decline in Brazil’s export and import volumes in July, lifting trade values on both sides of the ledger. The country posted a $7.1 billion trade surplus for the month, bringing the year-to-date total to $49 billion. War and cheaper technology drive green fuels in transport Petrobras resumes refinery maintenance, boosts diesel imports The July surplus resulted from $34.1 billion in exports and $27.1 billion in imports. In the first seven months of the year, exports totaled $218.6 billion and imports $169.5 billion, according to data released Thursday by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. Export volumes fell 4.3% in July from a year earlier, but a 10.8% increase in average prices pushed export revenue up 6.2%. Imports followed a similar pattern: volumes declined 3.2%, while average prices rose 12.1%, resulting in a 7.6% increase in spending on foreign goods. Prices have also played an important role in trade performance so far this year. Export volumes increased 3.3% from January through July, while average prices rose at a faster 6.6% pace, lifting export revenue by 10.5%. On the import side, a 6.5% increase in average prices more than offset a 0.6% decline in volumes, pushing import value up 5.5%. José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), said the price dynamics largely reflect the impact of oil prices, which surged after the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East and have fluctuated since then, with spillover effects across other products. André Valério, an economist at Inter, noted that Brent crude prices briefly eased before climbing again in mid-July. Oil began the year at around $70 a barrel and surged above $100 in March after the war began. In May and June, expectations that the conflict might be nearing an end pushed prices back into a $70 to $80 range. In July, however, growing pessimism over the prospects for a resolution sent oil back above $90 a barrel. Valério expects Oman and Iran to reach an agreement on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming months, which could bring oil prices back toward $70 a barrel. “That should be reflected in the trade balance, but it could be offset by higher export volumes, although uncertainties remain,” he said. China is expected to increase its demand for oil, Valério said, as are the United States. U.S. buyers have concentrated their supplies in Venezuela, he added, but are expected to need additional suppliers. Castro expects the trend of higher average export prices to continue in the coming months, although increases should remain gradual, without any sharp spikes. In volume terms, he expects growth in major commodities such as soybeans and oil. From January through July, soybean and oil exports increased by 7.5% and 7.9%, respectively. Together, the two products generated $67.6 billion in export revenue, accounting for 30.9% of Brazil’s total exports during the period. Ariane Benedito, chief economist at PicPay, said the July data suggest Brazil’s trade balance will increasingly depend not only on the international environment but also on the pace at which domestic economic activity cools. Brazil’s import growth, Benedito said, is no longer concentrated primarily in vehicles and now extends to higher-value-added goods such as technology equipment, pharmaceuticals, fuels and industrial inputs. “This shift suggests that import growth can no longer be explained solely by temporary factors or inventory rebuilding. The data are increasingly reflecting domestic demand that remains resilient despite still-restrictive monetary policy,” she said. That dynamic partly changes the way Brazil’s external sector should be viewed, Benedito said. “Until a few months ago, the main driver of the trade balance was the performance of commodity exports. From now on, the pace of import growth will play an equally important role in determining the trajectory of the trade surplus,” Ariane Benedito said. Even so, she said, Brazil’s external sector remains on solid footing, supported by a competitive export mix and continued favorable international demand for agricultural and energy commodities. “Expanding imports should gradually reduce the monthly surplus, but without compromising the structurally positive outlook for the external accounts,” Benedito said. PicPay forecasts a $78 billion trade surplus in 2026, compared with $68.1 billion in 2025. Brazilian exports are facing a new round of additional U.S. tariffs, but because the measures took effect only on July 29, they had no meaningful impact on last month’s trade figures. Herlon Brandão, director of foreign trade statistics and studies at the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, said the 5% decline in the value of Brazilian exports to the United States in July was concentrated mainly in products exempt from the additional tariffs, including aircraft and equipment, pig iron, unroasted coffee and fruit juices. That indicates the decline was driven by market factors rather than the new trade measures. In the first seven months of the year, Brazilian exports to the United States fell 12.2% compared with the same period in 2025, reflecting broader economic conditions and supply-and-demand dynamics. Despite the decline, the United States remains Brazil’s second-largest export market, behind China. Shipments to China rose 8.6% in July from a year earlier and 19.7% for the first seven months of the year. Brandão also said he sees no evidence that the recent escalation of Brazil’s diplomatic tensions with the United States and Argentina is yet reflected in foreign trade data. Changes in trade flows, he said, tend to occur only when political disputes translate into concrete measures that either restrict or encourage trade.