美对巴25%关税7月15日到期，大选博弈或令中资供应链承压

Donald Trump and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Ricardo Stuckert/PR With the U.S. Section 301 process due to conclude on July 15, political considerations may derail Brazil’s efforts to secure a negotiated settlement. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government is now preparing for Washington to impose the proposed 25% levy. Brazil has held four rounds of technical talks and sought to show that the U.S. allegations lack a sound technical basis. Even so, the federal government believes the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) may allow Brazil’s electoral calendar to influence its decision. The agency has proposed a 25% tariff on a broad range of Brazilian goods following its Section 301 investigation. With Brazil’s election less than three months away, officials believe the least politically risky option for the USTR would be to impose the tariff, avoiding deeper involvement in the dispute between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) from Rio de Janeiro. Business groups urge U.S., Brazil to strike tariff deal U.S. share of Brazil trade hits record low in first half Dropping the levy would allow Lula’s Workers’ Party government to claim that negotiations between the two administrations persuaded the United States to back down. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, could argue that Washington changed course because of his public appeal last week and his talks with White House officials. Keeping the tariff would therefore be the safest way for the USTR to avoid undermining its own work. Election calculations Brazilian officials expect Washington may prefer to await the election result and assess the profile of the country’s president in 2027 before deciding how to proceed with negotiations. Officials at the presidential palace see a risk for the Donald Trump administration in reaching an agreement with Lula now if the PL senator wins the election. A Flávio Bolsonaro presidency would probably bring the two countries into closer alignment from 2027, potentially making any earlier concessions to President Lula politically disadvantageous for Washington. A Lula victory would create a different scenario. Brazil and the United States could then resume talks with a view to negotiating exemptions from the tariff. The government had initially expected to submit a list of proposed exemptions now, following a strategy similar to the one adopted after Trump announced his first round of tariffs in July last year. With the election approaching, however, some Brazilian negotiators see little room at present to discuss exemptions or other forms of relief with the White House. The government is also wary of taking steps that could appear to validate the arguments used by the United States to justify the 25% tariff. Although one wing of the administration is already discussing the potential consequences of the levy, Brazilian negotiators say they will continue pressing Washington until July 15 not to implement it. Another group still sees a possibility that the tariff may not take effect and that the United States could stop focusing the negotiations on Pix. Brazil’s instant-payment system is considered one of the main points of friction between the countries and is non-negotiable for Brazilian officials. The proposed tariff has become increasingly entangled with Brazil’s presidential race, while Flávio has publicly sought a delay in its implementation. Public resistance Despite its skepticism about the talks, the government will continue voicing its opposition to the tariffs. The presidential palace is expected to maintain that the levy is unjustifiable while continuing to call for dialogue with the U.S. The Lula administration believes it exhausted the available options at the negotiating table. From the outset of the discussions, Brazil presented technical arguments and economic data intended to show that tariffs on Brazilian products were unwarranted. Those efforts were not enough to change the U.S. position, partly because Washington has never made clear what it was prepared to negotiate. A potential conversation between President Lula and President Donald Trump was also seen as unlikely to produce practical results because both leaders had already delegated the discussions to their technical teams. With the two countries unable to reach common ground, the presidents resumed trading accusations. On Friday (10), Lula said Brazil would adopt a new stance on critical minerals and rare earths. He added that Trump “may start becoming concerned” about Brazil in this area, rather than focusing solely on China, the leading producer of those materials. Possible retaliation Valor has learned that pressure may grow for the Brazilian government to invoke reciprocal measures under the Economic Reciprocity Law. Approved by Congress last year, the legislation allows Brazil to adopt countermeasures in response to unilateral action by other countries. Government officials nevertheless consider the debate premature. Before determining any response, Brazil would need to know the exact scope of the measures announced by the U.S. Any retaliation would not be immediate and could take two to three months. Welber Barral, a former foreign trade secretary and partner at BMJ Consultores, said the outcome of the Section 301 process will ultimately depend on Trump. Formally, the U.S. government could extend the investigation or request additional information, Barral said. “But it depends on what is going through Trump’s mind.” Brazil’s electoral calendar also complicates the negotiations, he said. Some of the issues of greatest interest to the U.S., including critical minerals and digital trade, require legislative changes that Congress would be unlikely to approve this year. Barral also said conflicting positions within Brazil weaken the country’s negotiating strategy. Commenting on Flávio Bolsonaro’s involvement in the talks, he said the initiative may have resonated only with the senator’s own voters. “It is interesting that Flávio’s participation may have helped him with his voters, but it had no effect whatsoever on the U.S. government,” Barral said. Tariff relief Despite the government’s more skeptical assessment, Barral believes the Brazilian administration could still seek a lower tariff or a broader list of exempt products, following the approach used in response to Trump’s first major tariff package. The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) also argues that the Lula government should pursue several fronts simultaneously. These include using evidence to demonstrate the effects of the measures on U.S. supply chains, companies and consumers, while seeking additional exemptions for Brazilian products. The organization also supports stronger engagement with government and business representatives in the United States, as well as progress in bilateral negotiations aimed at eliminating the additional tariffs. In a letter to the Brazilian and U.S. governments, Amcham Brasil, CNI and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce proposed a two-stage negotiating agenda. The first stage would seek a negotiated resolution to the Section 301 dispute, followed by deeper bilateral engagement on strategic issues.