巴西2026顺差预期上调至769亿美元，大豆石油双引擎利好中资出口商

Luíza Pinese Gabriel Reis/Valor Brazil’s trade surplus is expected to exceed last year’s result in 2026, providing a stronger contribution from the external sector. Market forecasts, which began the year close to the 2025 figure, have since been raised by about $10 billion. The upward revisions largely reflect stronger-than-expected exports, led by a solid soybean harvest that could produce record export volumes and by higher oil prices amid the war in the Middle East. Brazil posted a $68.1 billion trade surplus last year. The median market forecast in the Central Bank’s Focus survey now stands at $76.9 billion for 2026, well above the $66 billion projected in January and also higher than the $70 billion estimate at the end of March, one month after the conflict that triggered the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz began. The Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) is more optimistic, raising its previous surplus forecast to $94.1 billion from $68.2 billion. The government also made a revision of similar magnitude in July, lifting its official estimate to $90 billion from $72.1 billion three months earlier. Brazil raises grain crop forecast, confirms new record Experts warn of systemic economic impacts of super El Niño in Brazil Higher oil prices lift trade flows despite lower volumes U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has reduced the United States’ share of Brazilian exports, a trend analysts expect to continue this year. Still, they see no major macroeconomic impact on Brazil’s overall trade balance. El Niño is also beginning to enter the outlook for foreign trade, although its larger effects are expected to be felt in the 2027 agricultural harvest. The European Union-Mercosur agreement, meanwhile, is likely to have a more visible cumulative impact over the next several years. Stronger export performance More closely aligned with market forecasts, XP expects a $78.7 billion trade surplus this year under the methodology used by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC). If confirmed, the result would be more than $10 billion above the 2025 surplus. XP economist Luíza Pinese notes that the 12-month trade surplus through July reached $80 billion, already above the result for all of 2025. Exports rose 11% in the first seven months of the year, driven by higher prices and volumes for commodities including oil, soybeans and beef, Pinese said. Imports also increased, but at a slower 6% pace. Vehicles made a significant contribution, reflecting purchases brought forward ahead of a July increase in tariffs on electric vehicles, along with pharmaceuticals, fuel oils, machinery and semiconductors. Inter economist André Valério said some products also benefited from higher average oil prices. “Overall, oil and soybeans are performing better than expected this year, although there are still some factors that could affect the trade balance over the remainder of the year,” he said. Inter now forecasts an $86 billion surplus for 2026, $10 billion more than it expected in June. Before reaching its current estimate, the bank had already raised the forecast to $82 billion in July. Among the risks, Valério cited El Niño, which could reduce agricultural volumes but also put upward pressure on prices, limiting the net impact. “There are also greater restrictions on beef exports, both from the European Union and China, which introduced a quota that we have already exceeded.” Oil price assumptions XP’s 2026 surplus forecast had previously been higher, at $85 billion, based on an assumption of an average oil price of $85 a barrel in the second half of the year. The estimate was reduced after the oil-price assumption was cut to $75 a barrel, Pinese said. The new Brent crude forecast assumes “some moderation of the conflict” in the Middle East during the second half of the year. While XP does not assume a specific date for the normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, its scenario envisages a gradual fading of the risk premiums currently embedded in oil prices. “If this trajectory is confirmed, oil’s contribution to the trade balance will remain positive throughout 2026, since the annual average price will remain above the level seen in 2025.” The effect, however, should be smaller in the second half than in the April-to-June quarter, when oil prices reached as high as $120 a barrel, Pinese said. A report by XP’s macroeconomics team says prices for Brazil’s oil exports should make a positive contribution to the trade surplus in 2026 after three consecutive years of declines. Prices for exported oil fell 15% in 2023, 4% in 2024 and 10% in 2025, in each case from the previous year. XP expects oil export prices to rise 22% in 2026, alongside a 7% increase in volumes, taking oil exports to $58 billion this year. For 2027, the brokerage forecasts a 5% price decline. With volumes again projected to rise 7%, oil exports would reach $59 billion. Commodity concentration Oil, soybeans and iron ore are Brazil’s three largest export products. AEB expects the trio to set a record in export value in 2026, reaching a combined $146.4 billion, up from $117.1 billion in 2025. If the forecast is confirmed, the three commodities would account for 38% of Brazil’s estimated exports this year, compared with 33.6% in 2025. “For the first time in the history of Brazilian foreign trade, in 2026 two products, soybeans and crude oil, could each exceed $50 billion in exports and will be competing with each other to become Brazil’s largest export, a position that should go to oil,” Castro said. The three commodities are expected to be a major driver of export growth, which should provide most of the improvement in the trade surplus this year. Castro estimates export revenue will rise 10.6% from 2025, while spending on imports will increase 4%. Welber Barral, a former foreign trade secretary and partner at BMJ, said exports from the extractive industry, driven mainly by oil, rose 21.3% from January through July compared with the same period of 2025. As a result, the sector’s share of total exports increased to 24.9% from 22.6% a year earlier. Manufacturing exports also grew, by 6.3%, but the sector’s share nevertheless fell to 51.5% from 53.5% over the same period, Barral said. “There is no problem with Brazil exporting commodities. The problem is becoming too concentrated in commodities, which makes Brazil’s trade performance increasingly vulnerable to price fluctuations that are beyond the country’s control.” Shifting trade partners At the same time, Brazilian exports are becoming increasingly dependent on China, Barral said. China’s share of Brazil’s exports rose to 31.6% in the January-to-July period from 29.2% a year earlier. The U.S. share, hit by tariffs, fell to 9.6% from 12.1%. Pinese expects China’s share of Brazilian exports to continue rising, although at a more moderate pace than at the beginning of the year. “We expect China to continue gaining share, especially because of persistent trade frictions between Beijing and Washington, which favor alternative suppliers such as Brazil. This is a trend that has been visible since the first Trump administration, when China began increasing its purchases of Brazilian soybeans.” Exports to Argentina, traditionally an important destination for Brazilian manufactured goods and Brazil’s third-largest foreign market, have also declined this year, Castro said. Shipments fell 18.6% from January through July compared with the same period of 2025. Recent diplomatic tensions between Brazil and Argentina are unlikely to result in trade measures, Castro said, but they also do little to encourage strategic partnerships that could expand bilateral trade.