Brazilian farmers adjust plans to face strongest El Niño on record
In the 2026/27 crop year, Brazil’s agribusiness sector is expected to face the strongest El Niño on record, considering events documented since 1950. The last El Niño to receive a “very strong” classification, like the current one, was in the 2015/16 crop year, when 16 different crops suffered productivity losses. It was active from 2014 to 2016.
Brazil must build preparedness culture for new climate, Artaxo says
El Niño forecast leads government to curtail hydropower generation
El Niño risks enter Brazil’s presidential race
The climate pattern, which began in June this year, is developing more rapidly and is expected to peak between November and January 2027—with no exact forecast yet for when it will end. Experts consulted by Valor believe that, if a lack of rain and high temperatures materialize in the country’s Center-North, soybean planting could be delayed and yields could fall.
Guilherme Bastos, coordinator of FGV Agro, says irregular rainfall at the beginning of the season could delay planting or require the oilseed to be replanted. In 2024, which was also an El Niño year, 2.9 million hectares had to be replanted because of weather conditions. If the situation is repeated, late soybean sowing could compromise the ideal planting window for the second corn crop. In his view, the prospect of a strong El Niño makes sound crop planning and the purchase of agricultural insurance even more crucial.
Ana Luiza Lodi, a market intelligence analyst at Stonex, notes that if planting is delayed but weather conditions subsequently allow sowing, there would be no major damage to yields. From a market perspective, in the event of a significant crop failure in Brazil and Argentina, for example, prices could rise, as local and global supply-and-demand balances would become tighter.
“Currently, the focus is on the United States, amid some forecasts of excessive heat. If there is any significant problem in the United States, prices could already react even before the South American crop has been determined,” the analyst says.
In southern Brazil, where the phenomenon usually brings above-average rainfall, the concern is excessive precipitation during the establishment of summer crops. “The impact could even be positive for soybean and corn yields in Rio Grande do Sul, as long as the rain is not excessive, as it was in 2024,” says agrometeorologist Ana Maria Heuminski de Ávila, of Unicamp’s Center for Meteorological Research and Applied Climate Studies in Agriculture (Cepagri).
Agrometeorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos of Rural Clima highlights the importance of soil management in dealing with periods of excess or insufficient water. “He [the farmer] first has to do what we call his homework: maintain good crop residue, keep the soil with good plant cover and good chemical and physical structure, so that when it rains, the water can penetrate the entire soil and form a larger layer of water,” he says.
Characterized by an increase in the temperature of Pacific Ocean waters, El Niño has occurred many times. However, as the planet warms, the phenomenon has become increasingly intense and frequent, says Marcelo Seluchi, general coordinator of Operations and Modeling at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), which is linked to the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.
“El Niño is a recurring phenomenon; the issue is that it is becoming increasingly recurrent. Over the past 60 years, there have been more cases, and more intense ones, than in the previous 60 years,” he says. In Brazil, the phenomenon typically increases rainfall in the South and causes drought in the Center-West, North and Northeast.
For Eduardo Assad, a researcher at FGV Agro’s Bioeconomy Observatory, recent episodes of the phenomenon provide a basis for estimating that significant losses could occur in agriculture. According to him, in 2015 and 2024, the phenomenon caused losses of up to 10% of the crop.
Eduardo Martins, director of the Sustainable Agriculture Associated Group (GAAS), sees a risk of even greater damage to soybean production, for example. “If the lack of rain increases, affecting Matopiba [the convergence of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia] and the Center-West, there is a possibility of 20% losses in the country,” estimates Martins, who served as president of the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama) under the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Coffee at risk
In addition to grains, some of Brazil’s main perennial agribusiness crops could also suffer losses from the effects of El Niño in the 2026/27 crop year. Coffee and citrus, for example, are among the crops most vulnerable to a combination of intense heat and water deficits, as projected for the season.
According to Eduardo Assad, a researcher at the Bioeconomy Observatory of FGV Agro’s Agribusiness Studies Center, from a physiological standpoint, soybeans and corn are the crops most exposed to risks, but in the Southeast, oranges and coffee are the most sensitive crops. “The forecast is for very strong heat waves and low precipitation. [This could lead to] coffee flower abortion and a loss of water supply for oranges,” he says.
Not all crops are expected to suffer losses. When El Niño occurs, sugarcane fields in the Center-South region typically benefit from increased rainfall and a more even distribution of precipitation, says Fabio Marin, a professor in the Department of Biosystems Engineering at Esalq/USP.
“In El Niño years, especially when the phenomenon is strong, production [of sugarcane] in the Center-South is normally above average,” he says. The main risk, the professor says, is concentrated in harvesting, since excessive rain can make it difficult for machinery to enter fields, delaying the processing of the raw material.
El Niño also alters weather conditions in countries that compete with Brazil. This is the case with India, one of the world’s largest sugar producers, which could face a water deficit during the monsoon rainy season, notes Guilherme Palhares, an analyst at Santander.
