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巴西资讯巴西宏观市场2026年7月31日

巴西气候组织178项提案直送国会,中资基建与农业项目环评风险上升

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Environmentalists push climate onto election agenda

巴西气候观察组织发布178项环保提案并直送326位国会议员,旨在扭转反环境立法倾向。若提案落地,在巴中资农业、基建、能源项目的环评审批和合规成本或将显著上升。

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178项环保提案直送326位国会议员,中资农业与基建项目环评审批周期和合规成本面临立法趋严风险。

巴西领先的民间社会网络气候观察组织(Climate Observatory)于2026年6月选举前夕,向326位国会重要人士及政党主席递交了一份名为《巴西环境政策提案》的文件,整合172个组织建议,共96页、178项提案,涵盖气候正义、环境种族主义、传统社区领土保护等14个主题。该组织公共政策协调员苏埃莉·阿劳若(Suely Araújo)明确表示,希望选民投票给关心气候变化的立法者,以扭转国会正在发生的最大倒退。对在巴中资企业而言,这意味着未来数年环境立法与执法趋严的政策窗口正在打开。

这份文件并非停留在倡议层面。底稿显示,气候观察组织自2026年3月以来已举行7次会议,每次约80人参与,并于6月将提案文件定向发送给193位众议员、54位参议员及各政党主席,同时向立法者和国会领袖发送了超过400封电子邮件。文件特别强调了气候正义、环境种族主义、人权和传统社区领土保护等议题——这些议题在巴西国会历来属于边缘议程,如今被系统性打包为选举施压工具。文件还援引数据称,2025年巴西有超过33.6万人直接受到极端气候事件影响;2024年南里奥格兰德州洪水造成180多人死亡、影响240万人、损失近900亿雷亚尔;全球范围内1970年至2019年间45%的死亡与气候灾害相关。这些数字指向一个明确诉求:气候议题必须进入2026年选举的核心政策议程。

对在巴中资企业而言,这份提案的传导路径虽非直接监管指令,但政治信号强烈。底稿未涉及中资企业直接影响,但通过立法议程传导机制,其冲击将首先落在环评审批环节。巴西环境与可再生自然资源研究所(IBAMA)和州级环保机构在审批农业开垦、基础设施建设和矿业项目时,若国会通过更严格的气候审查条款,中资企业在南里奥格兰德州、马托格罗索州等地的大豆采购、牛肉供应链和港口物流项目将面临更长的环评周期和更高的合规成本。此外,提案中关于传统社区领土保护的条款,可能直接影响中资企业在亚马逊地区和东北部风电、光伏项目的用地谈判——原住民和 quilombola 社区的协商程序若被写入法律,项目前期开发时间将显著拉长。

CBI 认为,这份提案的实质是民间社会对国会反环境立场的系统性反击。底稿显示,气候观察组织整合了 WWF、绿色和平等172个组织,且选择在选举年6月精准投递至326位国会关键人物,这是一种典型的选举议程设置策略。CBI 观察,巴西国会农业阵线(Frente Parlamentar da Agropecuária)在2023-2026年期间多次推动放宽环境法规,而此次提案的发布时机和规模表明,环保阵营正在试图通过选举压力实现立法平衡。值得中资企业注意的是,提案中关于环境种族主义的表述,意味着未来涉及传统社区的土地开发项目可能面临更高的社会监督和司法挑战——这并非短期行政风险,而是长期法律环境变化。

待观察的跟踪点有三个:其一,2026年8月总统和国会候选人正式登记后,各阵营对气候提案的公开表态——若主要候选人明确支持,则立法落地概率上升;其二,国会环境与可持续发展委员会(CMADS)在2026年下半年是否启动对提案中178项条款的分项审议,特别是涉及传统社区领土保护的第7章内容;其三,IBAMA 在2026年第三季度发布的环评审批平均时长数据——若审批周期较2025年同期延长超过15%,则表明气候审查已在行政层面提前收紧。

CBI 观察编辑判断

事实层面,气候观察组织已将提案送达326位国会关键人物,并明确以扭转反环境立场为目标。CBI 认为,该提案的落地概率取决于2026年选举结果,但无论结果如何,环境议题在巴西政治议程中的权重已结构性上升,中资企业应提前评估环评合规预算。

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信息概要

类型
政策发布
方向
巴西
分类
宏观市场
层级
编辑整理
地点
在巴中资农业、基建、能源企业,涉及大豆、牛肉、港口物流、风电光伏项目。
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资农业企业基建与能源项目开发商法务与合规团队
话题
政策政治

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Environmentalists push climate onto election agenda
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Environmentalists push climate onto election agenda

Suely Araujo Gabriel Reis/Valor The Climate Observatory, Brazil’s leading civil-society network working on climate issues, has released a document containing 178 environmental proposals for presidential and congressional candidates. One objective is to reverse socioeconomic and environmental setbacks in Congress. Another is to bring the climate crisis into the election debate. Opinion: Brazil grows when it plans and cares Brazil’s burned area halves as Amazon fires plunge Six in 10 Brazilian children exposed to climate threats, UNICEF says Urban planner and lawyer Suely Araújo, the former head of Brazil’s environmental protection agency, Ibama, and one of the document’s authors, acknowledged the difficulty. “Bringing climate issues into the election debate is difficult.” She believes, however, that an external factor could push the subject onto the campaign trail. “Unfortunately, because El Niño appears likely to be strong, the phenomenon will help bring attention to the issue.” “Proposals for Brazilian Environmental Policy” is 96 pages long and incorporates suggestions from the network’s 172 organizations, including WWF, Greenpeace, Arapyaú, Alana, Idec, Imaflora, Instituto Socioambiental, and Oceana. Seven meetings have been held since March, each attended by 80 people. In June, the Climate Observatory’s Elections 2026 task force sent the document to 326 recipients considered strategically important in Congress, including 193 members of the Lower House and 54 senators whose seats are being contested. The national presidents of every political party also received the document. “The purpose was to insert the climate and environmental agenda into discussions of the 2026 election platforms and make the Climate Observatory available to explore the proposals in greater depth with the campaigns,” said Araújo, the organization’s public policy coordinator. This is not the first time environmentalists have compiled proposals intended to shape presidential candidates’ policy agendas. They also did so in 2022. There are two differences this time: some subjects have been broadened, and each chapter includes a table listing what should be blocked in Congress and what could be advanced. “Congress has adopted a strongly anti-environmental position. We tried to show lawmakers what is not working while supporting what we consider good bills,” Araújo said. The document presents a menu of proposals grouped into 14 themes. The first two—climate justice, environmental racism, and human rights; and the territorial protection of traditional communities—receive greater prominence than in the previous version. These are cross-cutting subjects that appear in other chapters, as does climate finance. “There are many bills in Congress on these subjects that attack conservation areas, Indigenous lands, and Quilombola territories, and the document highlights them,” she said. “Our domestic politics are marked by extreme polarization, in which battles over competing narratives gain ground while, with honorable exceptions, society’s demands for public policies receive less attention,” the introduction states. “Polarization relegates issues of collective interest to the background,” it continues. “This context, combined with the worsening climate crisis in Brazil and the increasing frequency of large-scale extreme events, demands even greater attention from Brazilian civil society.” The task force selected lawmakers who interact with the Climate Observatory network. “The team went to Congress and delivered the publication to each lawmaker or chief of staff,” Araújo said. More than 400 emails were also sent to lawmakers and congressional leaders. The effort will also seek to reach the public. “We want to convey a simple message: vote for lawmakers who care about climate change. It is important to direct attention to congressional races because that is where the greatest setbacks are occurring,” she said. “The Executive Branch has lacked the strength to block anything.” Another theme addresses the strengthening of climate and environmental governance through stable, continuous human and financial resources. “The attack on remote embargoes [of properties that engaged in illegal deforestation] destroys enforcement,” Araújo said by way of example. Climate change adaptation and disaster risk management are among the agenda’s strongest themes. Citing data from the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), the document notes that more than 336,000 people in Brazil were directly affected by extreme climate events in 2025. In 2024, flooding in Rio Grande do Sul killed more than 180 people, affected 2.4 million, and caused nearly R$90 billion in damage across the productive and social sectors, infrastructure, and the environment. Globally, 45% of deaths between 1970 and 2019 were related to climate disasters. Among the suggestions for candidates seeking executive office is the development of robust scenarios to assess climate risks to infrastructure—including power generation and transmission, urban mobility, sanitation, ports, airports, hospitals, and schools—as well as to agriculture, cities, towns, communities, and terrestrial, aquatic, coastal, and marine ecosystems. This knowledge should combine scientific evidence with traditional and local experience. Another proposal calls for ensuring the traceability of resources used for adaptation in public policies and increasing oversight, transparency, and accountability among banks that finance activities affecting social, environmental, and climate conditions. “Brazil does not adequately identify the resources allocated to climate policy and has considerable room for improvement in this area,” the document states. Another recommendation is to recalculate and adapt stormwater drainage systems in public and private projects. The need for measures to protect communities in high-risk areas is clear. The document says areas with lower levels of risk intensity, magnitude, frequency, and susceptibility should be identified—in other words, safer places for people to live. Brazil should prioritize multi-hazard early-warning systems and strengthen state and municipal civil protection and defense agencies, as well as community units. During disasters, essential services such as access to water, electricity, internet, and telephone service must be maintained. In its section on adaptation, the document identifies bills that would weaken environmental enforcement, directly affecting disaster prevention and response. On the positive side, it highlights proposals to phase out fossil fuels and establish national programs for sustainable infrastructure and resilient schools. “The current government has problems, particularly in energy, because of its decision to expand oil and other fossil-fuel production. But it has also made important gains, including reducing deforestation. Congress, however, has a host of bills moving in the opposite direction that would make deforestation control unworkable,” Araújo said. “That is the logic of the document—to offer proposals to candidates for executive office and alert congressional candidates to what is moving through the legislature.” In the section on a just energy transition—“the central element in confronting the climate crisis,” according to the document—the proposals range from establishing a timetable to end oil auctions in Brazil to redirecting Petrobras’s strategy toward the energy transition. Other recommendations include avoiding contracts for new fossil-fuel power plants, eliminating coal-fired electricity generation this decade, and supporting fossil-fuel industry workers through the energy transition. A special chapter is devoted to the sociobiodiversity economy, while another addresses reindustrialization and new low-carbon technologies. “The country’s reindustrialization has explicit support. That needs to be reconciled with the general environmental licensing law, which is loosening many procedures and threatening environmental oversight,” Araújo said. Translation: Todd Harkin

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