巴西企业1.48万亿雷亚尔债务压顶，在巴中资高杠杆板块2027年起再融资承压

Luiz Felipe Fleury Vaz Guimarães Divulgação Brazilian companies face R$1.48 trillion in interest and principal payments on corporate debt securities from September this year through 2030, a wave of obligations that is expected to test the local capital market’s capacity to absorb refinancing needs — particularly for more highly leveraged borrowers. Payments are set to peak at R$385.8 billion in 2029, the highest annual amount over the period, based on a Prisma Capital survey obtained exclusively by Valor. Brazilian issuers seen lagging LatAm debt revival Out-of-court restructurings hit record R$174.5bn in Brazil Of the total projected payments, R$891.7 billion are principal repayments and R$587.6 billion are interest. Between September 2026 and the end of 2028, companies are due to pay roughly R$770 billion. Payments in the final four months of this year are estimated at R$130.8 billion, rising to R$297.6 billion in 2027, R$341.8 billion in 2028 and R$385.8 billion in 2029. The amount then falls to R$323.4 billion in 2030. Refinancing pressure The heavy concentration of maturities and interest payments comes as investors become increasingly selective. Higher-quality issuers can still raise funds, but the market has effectively closed to more leveraged companies seeking new financing or debt rollovers. With a sizable maturity wall approaching, market participants increasingly expect another wave of restructurings. A Prisma analysis illustrates the vulnerability among listed companies. Of 224 companies assessed, 95, or 42%, had net debt exceeding three times their EBITDA. Consumer staples had the highest average leverage in the sample, at 3.58 times EBITDA, followed by industrial companies at 3.31 times and utilities at 3.19 times. Fixed-income experts at banks, who spoke to Valor on condition of anonymity, said the institutional market for securities linked to the CDI interbank rate remains active, but transactions are heavily concentrated among the strongest credits. Some high-quality companies raised large amounts in the second half of last year. Now, some are taking on shorter-term debt while waiting for a more favorable opportunity to extend maturities next year. One person who spoke on condition of anomity described that approach as a way of managing the company’s debt profile rather than a sign of financial distress. The situation is different for companies that are more sensitive to interest rates, operate with thinner margins and built their capital structures when borrowing costs were lower. These borrowers are struggling to refinance debt under conventional terms. Deals increasingly require collateral and, in some cases, securitization structures. Smaller borrowers The strain is expected to be more severe among smaller companies, which have limited access to capital markets. High interest rates, inflation, international conflicts, corporate events and Brazil’s election cycle are making investors more selective and putting upward pressure on spreads, the banking sources said. Luiz Felipe Fleury Vaz Guimarães, a partner at law firm Pinheiro Neto Advogados, also cited high interest rates, international volatility, geopolitical uncertainty and the election environment as factors increasing risk aversion. The large number of court-supervised and out-of-court restructurings has further reinforced investor caution. When more leveraged companies do manage to issue debt, Guimarães said, transactions generally carry higher rates and shorter maturities. In some cases, the banks coordinating the offerings have had to hold the securities on their own balance sheets. Restricted market access is not limited to companies under financial stress. Businesses regarded as solid credits but temporarily unable to find an attractive issuance window will also have to seek alternative capital structures, one fixed-income executivr said. Options include early debt-for-equity conversions, even outside formal restructuring proceedings. For more indebted companies, refinancing has increasingly been negotiated on a case-by-case basis, often with demands for collateral. For some borrowers, the problem has already moved beyond liquidity and become one of solvency, said a source who works with distressed companies. Earlier impact The pressure is likely to emerge well before contractual maturity dates because companies typically begin refinancing debt one or two years in advance. “This shows up in maturities from 2029 onward, but because companies refinance earlier, the pressure could reach the market in 2027 and 2028,” said Sérgio Yokoyama Omati, co-founder of Credit Guide. For now, issuance volumes still comfortably exceed principal repayments. Primary offerings totaled R$555 billion in the 12 months through June 2026, an average of R$46 billion a month. Over the same period, amortizations and principal maturities totaled about R$8 billion a month, or roughly R$100 billion for the year, Credit Guide data show, also covering Brazil’s local corporate debt market. “Almost R$6 came in for every R$1 that had to be paid back. The new money was used for companies to grow, not to roll over old debt,” Omati said. Issuance, however, has slowed to about R$33 billion a month in 2026. If that pace persists, the ratio of new fundraising to principal repayments would fall to about 1.3 times in 2029. “For every R$100 raised, R$78 would already be committed to repaying maturing debt,” Omati said. During months with the heaviest concentration of maturities, principal payments could reach R$38 billion — more than the market is currently issuing in an entire month. Higher costs Refinancing the existing debt stock will also become more expensive. Debentures linked to Brazil’s benchmark IPCA consumer-price index and maturing between 2027 and 2031 carry an average rate equivalent to IPCA plus 6.3%. Refinancing those securities at current market rates would add about 1.4 percentage points to issuers’ real borrowing costs, Credit Guide estimates. Not all principal repayments will have to be refinanced in the capital markets. Companies can use their own cash, sell assets or borrow from banks. Still, Guimarães said rising delinquency has prompted financial institutions to tighten risk assessments, demand stronger collateral and impose stricter financial covenants. “For large companies, for the best credits, the market remains open. Not with the same vigor we saw through last year, but it is still quite open,” said Ricardo Gallo, a partner at Ethica Family Office. “This is not a homogeneous universe. The more leveraged companies will have difficulty refinancing, without a doubt.” Overseas markets International markets have also become more selective. Banking sources said foreign investor demand is concentrated in securities issued by companies with exceptionally strong credit quality. More leveraged companies are finding it increasingly difficult to issue bonds. Episodes involving Braskem, Ambipar and Raízen have contributed to the more cautious environment. While the situations differ, they have heightened investor scrutiny of Brazilian issuers’ liquidity, debt levels and repayment capacity. Braskem faces deeper crisis than global petrochemical peers Raízen creditors pick board nominees as debt swap nears Over the past four years, capital markets have increased their share of financing for large companies, overtaking bank lending as the main source of funding for the group. Greater selectivity could now drive part of that borrowing back toward banks. “Companies that are having trouble refinancing and have obligations they need to meet will have to turn to bank credit,” Gallo said. “It will depend on banks’ capacity to absorb those loans on their balance sheets, and that capacity is not unlimited.”