巴西财长警告免税证券扭曲债市，中资持有LCI/LCA或面临税改冲击

Daniel Leal Daniel Fagundes/Valor National Treasury Secretary Daniel Leal told Valor that distortions caused by the expansion of tax-exempt securities–such as real estate credit bills (LCIs), agribusiness credit bills (LCAs), and incentivized debentures–will have to be addressed to make Brazil’s fixed-income market more efficient, regardless of the election outcome. The statement comes as the Treasury faces difficulties in auctions of inflation-linked bonds, known as NTN-Bs, amid volatility in the local fixed-income market. Investors call for repos after another NTN-B auction meets few buyers Treasury, incentivized bonds skewing inflation‑linked yield curve According to Leal, the timing of any measures—whether soon after the elections or only next year—will depend on the priorities of the elected government. Still, he said the growing inefficiency in the market will make the debate unavoidable. “This will have to be addressed so that we have a more efficient market for everyone’s benefit, including those who issue incentivized securities,” he said. Possible measures The secretary said there is still no decision on which path will be taken to correct these distortions, but noted that the options have been discussed before. According to him, they include changes to the taxation of these investments, such as the levying of Income Tax and the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF), as well as adjustments to rules for issuing and offering incentivized securities. The measures could be adopted separately or in combination, depending on the strategy chosen by the government. The changes could be implemented through a decree, rules issued by the National Monetary Council (CMN) or the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM), or through a bill. “There was [that discussion] at the time. So the alternatives that could be used are already somewhat mapped out,” Leal said. He stressed, however, that the government is not currently discussing the resumption of those measures, which were partly proposed in 2025 through a provisional presidential decree that was not approved by Congress. For Leal, any changes will also depend on a strategy to show the market and society the benefits of the measures. He said market dysfunction raises the benchmark rate for issuances and therefore increases funding costs. Reducing those distortions, he argued, would benefit not only the Treasury but also the issuers of incentivized securities themselves. “Because market dysfunction is more expensive; it may raise the base rate at which you will issue,” he said. NTN-B market Leal said that, as of Tuesday (7), the Treasury had not identified a need for more aggressive intervention in the NTN-B market, such as buyback operations or auctions to buy and sell public bonds. If such action had been necessary, he said, the measures would already have been taken. Last week, part of the securities offered went unsold. On Tuesday, the Treasury offered only the minimum lot of those bonds, prioritizing the placement of floating-rate securities, which are less exposed to price swings in a rising-rate environment. The secretary emphasized, however, that the Treasury is closely monitoring market conditions and is ready to act if the situation deteriorates. “We may wake up and need to intervene, and we will be prepared to do so,” he said. Leal added that the market remains in a delicate position, which in his view explains the recent reduction in the volume offered in public bond auctions. The secretary acknowledged that the risk premium on NTN-Bs is at a “historically high level,” but said there are factors in place that could help bring rates back to a healthier level. “At some point, we will return to less restrictive monetary policy, which will contribute [to lower rates]. And as time goes by, we are making progress on fiscal sustainability, which also helps,” he said. Investment grade Leal also said Brazil is closer to regaining investment-grade status from credit rating agencies than it has been at other times, mainly because gross domestic product has grown more than expected in recent years. “We are much closer than we have been at other times. The agencies will have the comfort to restore Brazil’s investment grade. Brazil’s debt-to-GDP ratio has grown less than that of most other emerging countries [in recent years]. So the gap between Brazil’s debt-to-GDP [ratio] and that of other [emerging] countries has narrowed,” he argued. In the interview, Leal also said it is not possible to say in advance whether the 2027 Annual Budget Bill will need to include any additional revenue measure, since the proposal is still being prepared by the government. “There is no way for us to anticipate whether there will have to be any revenue measure or not. What I can guarantee is that it [the 2027 Annual Budget Bill] will be submitted seeking the target that was established and respecting the spending limit.” In its fiscal projections report, the Treasury calculated that additional revenue measures equivalent to 0.2% of GDP would be needed for the government to meet the center of the fiscal target in 2027. The target proposed in the Budget Guidelines Bill is a surplus of 0.5% of GDP, equivalent to R$72.3 billion, with a tolerance band of 0.25 percentage point above or below. Fiscal debate Asked whether next year’s challenge will lie more on the spending side than on the revenue side, the secretary said there is no “single solution” to Brazil’s fiscal problems. Leal said more complex issues, such as budget rigidity and indexation, need to be debated in a “mature” way, with the goal of preserving social programs that are necessary for society. “Many economists talk about indexation, budget rigidity, spending floors, social benefits, Social Security. There is the issue of tax expenditures, which the government addressed in part last year. I don’t think there is a silver bullet, quite the opposite. I think there has to be a mature discussion to truly preserve the programs that are necessary and bring benefits to society, while discussing new things or gaining efficiency by reassessing any of these actions,” he said. Leal said it is natural that, once the election is over, the government that is elected will signal the economic policy it intends to pursue. From that point on, he said, Brazil will be able to resume the debate on solutions that lead to fiscal and public-debt sustainability.