巴西公共债务升至GDP的82.9%，前8月增4.2个百分点创疫情以来最快

Ecio Costa Divulgação Brazil’s general government gross debt (DBGG), the main measure of the public debt stock, is posting, in 2026, its fastest growth since the pandemic. The ratio of DBGG to gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.2 percentage points from January through August, the Central Bank reported Wednesday (30). The increase in the first eight months of 2026 was surpassed only by those recorded over the same periods in 2009, at 4.79 percentage points, 2015, at 6.69 points, and 2020, at 11.39 points. As a result, DBGG reached 82.9% of GDP, or R$11.1 trillion, last month, its highest level since March 2021. In December 2025, it stood at R$10 trillion, or 78.6% of GDP. Economists argue that high interest rates are mainly a consequence of fiscal imbalances at the federal level. Ecio Costa, an economics professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), said the government’s lack of control over public spending and the expansion of expenditures, particularly under programs announced by the federal government in 2026, are preventing a decline in longer-term interest rates, which are used to finance the debt. Government launches renegotiation push for debts of micro-entrepreneurs Interest rate reduction also requires spending cuts, FGV Ibre says Middle-class borrowers owe more than six months of income For Costa, the primary balance targets—revenue minus spending, excluding debt-related expenses—established under the federal government’s fiscal framework, in effect since 2023, “mask the reality” of public accounts. That is because a significant amount of spending is excluded from the primary balance target, particularly court-ordered government debt payments. When those expenses are taken into account, the government raised its estimate for the 2026 primary deficit from R$52 billion to R$80 billion, putting it R$114 billion short of the midpoint of the fiscal target, which calls for a R$34 billion surplus. “The fiscal framework projects a controlled expansion of spending, but the rule itself was revised during the government’s term, allowing more spending and making it possible for the rules not to be followed. There are also no serious penalties for failing to comply with the framework, as it was established so loosely. That undermines market expectations about the debt trajectory, and interest rates are getting higher and higher,” he said. Rafael Rondinelli, an economist at MAG Investimentos, also said recent measures announced by the federal government have worsened the fiscal outlook. He cited the 15.04% increase in Bolsa Família benefits, which will cost R$5.8 billion in 2026 and R$22.7 billion in 2027, as well as diesel subsidies and cuts in taxes on gasoline and ethanol, which have totaled R$37.5 billion since March. The ban on betting platforms, Rondinelli added, is also expected to reduce tax revenue by R$11.9 billion through 2028. “Credit is equally concerning. Desenrola 3.0 calls for the purchase of up to R$150 billion in debt, at a maximum cost of R$15 billion to the federal government in 2027, which the government says will be offset by reallocating spending,” he said, referring to the debt renegotiation program for individuals launched last week. In the minutes of its latest meetings, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) has said fiscal policy affects decisions on the Selic policy interest rate in two ways. The first is in the short term, through its impact on demand. The second, which is “more structural,” may affect economic agents’ perception “of the sustainability of public debt” and influence longer-term interest rates charged by the market. Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate is currently 13.75% a year. In August, according to data released Wednesday (30) by the Central Bank, the consolidated public sector—the federal government, states, municipalities, and state-owned companies—spent R$105.9 billion on debt interest. It was the highest amount for the month since official records began in 2002. The nominal deficit, which includes debt-related expenses, totaled R$1.264 trillion over the 12 months through August, equivalent to 9.48% of GDP. In a statement, the Finance Ministry said, referring to the primary balance, that the federal government “has delivered fiscal consolidation of about two percentage points of GDP” since the beginning of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third term. The ministry said, for example, that the Central Bank’s breakdown shows that nominal interest expenses added 30.4 percentage points of GDP to gross debt from January 2023 through August 2026. “Blaming the primary balance alone for a dynamic that Central Bank data attribute to the cost of debt is inaccurate,” the ministry said. “It is not the Finance Ministry’s role to debate monetary policy decisions or how government bonds are priced by the market. Our role is to continuously and credibly pursue a fiscal environment that helps reduce the cost of debt.” In a report, Bradesco’s economics team said the outlook for the nominal balance through year-end is for “marginal improvement,” driven by “an improvement in the primary balance and the cycle of declining interest rates.” “Even so, interest payments will keep the nominal deficit at a high level, sustaining the upward trajectory of public debt,” the bank said. Bradesco estimates that DBGG will end 2026 at 83.6% of GDP, up 5 percentage points for the year.