ASA预测：巴西若转向财政紧缩，Ibovespa有望冲击30万点

Brazil’s benchmark Ibovespa stock index could still reach 300,000 points if the country shifts toward a fiscally responsible economic policy, said Rogério Freitas, chief investment officer at financial group ASA. Such an outcome would depend on measures to restore balance to the public accounts after the presidential election. ASA’s investment team first set the 300,000-point target late last year, when the environment was more favorable for Brazilian risk assets. From the outset, however, the forecast depended on what the firm described as a “binomial tree”: whether the election would steer Brazil toward greater fiscal austerity or preserve the current model of a larger, higher-spending state. Senate passes R$27bn ‘fiscal time bomb’ for health agents July stock picks favor defensive stance “If Brazil takes a path in which it elects a fiscally responsible candidate, the 300,000-point target remains valid,” Freitas said during an online event on the Alberto Safra-owned group’s investment outlook for the second half. “[The stock market] could outperform other assets. It would be a very favorable environment for risk assets.” Election trigger Freitas stressed that the target would not be reached overnight. It would require the election of a fiscally responsible candidate, followed by a supportive global environment throughout 2027. He sees a timeframe of 12 to 18 months. “If it gets that boost and the global environment is favorable, the market could accelerate,” he said. For now, with no certainty that foreign investors will again channel money into emerging-market and Brazilian equities as they did in the second half of 2025 and early 2026, ASA favors passive exposure to the Ibovespa, supplemented by a smaller allocation to active equity managers. “If the country remains on the path of reelection and the current fiscal policy, investors need to be in the Ibovespa, which has heavy exposure to commodities, and in banks. In any environment, they need protection,” Freitas said. A shift toward fiscal discipline could favor assets outside the benchmark. “Today, it is difficult to select sectors. Small caps would perform well if there were a change in economic policy, and so would state-controlled companies. But it is difficult to make those choices because the odds today [of reelection or an opposition victory] are close to 50-50. It is almost a coin toss. When in doubt, it is better to keep things simple, combining passive investment with some active management.” Freitas said ASA does not favor one candidate over another, but has a responsibility to map out possible outcomes and provide investors with the best recommendations under each scenario. High hurdle The bar for Brazilian equities is now higher, with the Selic policy rate at 14.25% and real interest rates close to 10%. Against that backdrop, Freitas said it is difficult to determine whether companies will be able to deliver earnings growth while facing an elevated cost of capital. ASA portfolios therefore carry a heavier allocation to fixed income. Within equities, the preference is for mature companies with strong dividend payouts, rather than businesses at an earlier stage of development that still require substantial capital. “When in doubt, history shows that the largest dividend payers tend to perform better in a more uncertain macroeconomic environment,” he said. Capital competition Freitas expects domestic factors to have a greater influence on Brazilian assets than external conditions in the second half. The outlook will also depend, however, on whether international investors are willing to diversify beyond the largest technology companies, which have resumed attracting global capital after a brief honeymoon with emerging markets. “If the microeconomic side of U.S. exceptionalism begins to lose momentum, with American investors growing tired, the S&P 500 reaching a plateau, moving sideways and undergoing some profit-taking—as happened between 2002 and 2008—there could be a portfolio rotation that favors emerging markets amid a weaker dollar,” Freitas said. “Emerging markets would return to the spotlight, and if Brazil does its homework, it could earn a place in global portfolios, with investors buying the index. Within the index—through EWZ, the U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund that tracks Brazilian equities—Brazil could stand out and receive stronger inflows,” he noted. Under that scenario, international investors could even become overweight Brazil. Whether the country emerges as the main destination would depend on its own policy choices, Freitas added. “Domestic drivers are extremely important if Brazil is to take advantage of a favorable global environment.” U.S. advantage Charles Ferraz, ASA’s global chief investment officer, said foreign investors look for both returns and institutional security when deciding where to allocate capital—qualities the U.S. economy continues to offer. Ferraz noted that U.S. earnings are expected to grow 17% in the second quarter, with double-digit gains projected in subsequent periods. That is a dynamic not seen in Europe, Brazil or almost anywhere else in the world. While short-term interest-rate strategies often fail to compensate investors adequately for the risk, conditions in the U.S. equity market remain supportive. “The economy is doing well, despite a constant stream of noise,” Ferraz said. Looking ahead, he expects investors to continue allocating money to stocks and does not believe a technology bubble is forming, “for the simple reason that the companies are delivering tremendous results.” Even if the current price-to-earnings multiple remains unchanged, U.S.-listed stocks could rise by roughly 8% to 10%, he said. AI spending Ferraz said total investment in artificial intelligence is expected to reach $800 billion this year, $1 trillion in 2027 and another $1.4 trillion in 2028. Those amounts exceed the cost of the bank rescue program introduced during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. “When you look at the theme, AI penetration is still very low. The market will undoubtedly continue to face challenges over how to finance all of this. At some point, governments and companies will be competing for the same pool of resources from society.” The U.S. fiscal picture and the country’s heavy debt burden could eventually become an obstacle, Ferraz said, but the problem is unlikely to escalate overnight because real interest rates in the United States remain low. Since fixed-income income is taxed in the same way as wages, U.S. investors often earn negative real returns and continue to favor equities. In Brazil, by contrast, the CDI interbank rate already provides a high real return even after taxes. In the U.S., the calculation starts with the federal funds rate at between 3.5% and 4% and inflation of around 3%. “The trajectory is concerning, but there is still a long way to go. It will take time before it turns into a crisis,” Ferraz said. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the succession at the Federal Reserve, U.S. inflation remains well anchored, he added. “When will the bond vigilantes emerge? I don’t know.” For that reason, ASA prefers to avoid positions in long-term interest rates. Rogério Freitas Divulgação