巴西股市9月逆势涨5.03%，外资净买入95.7亿雷亚尔

Paula Moreno, partner and co-chief investment officer at Armor Capital: “Everything is very defensive. Nobody wants to take on too much risk because the outlook abroad is for higher interest rates ” Gabriel Reis/Valor September was a month divided into two periods: before and after the Federal Reserve Bank raised interest rates. In its final days, the month was also marked by the most significant shifts in polls measuring voter intentions ahead of Sunday’s (4) presidential election. Even amid this volatile environment, which also includes the war in the Middle East, the Ibovespa stood out, gaining 5.03%. In the year-to-date investment rankings, stocks also took the lead, advancing 15.65%. Stuhlberger sees ‘reasonable’ 60% odds of Flávio win, with market shock Floating-rate bonds get bigger share of Brazilian public debt Fed rate hikes could have mixed impact on Brazil, investors say Fixed-income investments came next, although at the longer end of the yield curve. The IMA-B 5+, a basket of government bonds indexed to the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) with maturities of more than five years, ended the month up 3.82%, compared with a 1.08% return on the CDI benchmark rate. Year to date, it has gained 8.85%, trailing the CDI’s 10.51% return. For comparison, the IMA-B 5, which tracks bonds with maturities of up to five years, performed considerably worse in September, gaining 2.01%, although its year-to-date return stands at 11.37%. Investors maintained limited exposure to riskier assets as they awaited greater clarity on both the international and domestic outlooks. “Everything is very defensive. Nobody wants to take on too much risk because the outlook abroad is for higher interest rates,” says Paula Moreno, partner and co-chief investment officer at Armor Capital. After the election, a potential rally is expected, similar to those seen in other countries, if the outcome favors the opposition. This is because, in the view of some financial market participants, a continuation of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration reduces the likelihood of changes to fiscal policy. If such a rally materializes, its magnitude and duration will depend on both the outlook for fiscal policy and international conditions. Marcelo Mattos, chief investment officer at Inter Asset, does not, however, expect a prolonged rally. He cites a study conducted by the asset manager on market reactions to elections since 2000, which found that these cycles tend to be short-lived. “Historically, in Latin America, rallies have had less to do with elections and more to do with capital flows into emerging markets,” he says. “Unless the new administration introduces very concrete changes, there needs to be an immediate signal from the winner.” High interest rates in the U.S. could therefore limit any market reaction, while the returns offered by Brazilian fixed-income investments allow domestic investors to wait cautiously. “It may happen, but nothing will gain traction here if conditions abroad deteriorate significantly,” says Raphael Vieira, head of investments at multifamily office Arton Advisors. “The U.S. is a magnet for global investment. Global investors prefer 5% in dollars to 13% in reais. Meanwhile, local investors are effectively anesthetized by the CDI.” Gradually, however, after the election results, economic participants are expected to reassess their positions and determine whether expectations have been overly optimistic or pessimistic, says Mattos of Inter Asset. For now, mired in uncertainty, markets are expected to move sideways between the first and second rounds of voting in October. “We need to get to the end of October. We have to get through the month to eliminate uncertainty,” says Ulisses Nehmi, CEO of Sparta, who says he is optimistic about fixed income “but pessimistic about credit.” The stock market began the month on an upward trajectory, while the dollar weakened, driven by strong foreign capital inflows as local investors remained cautious. The momentum faded following the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates on September 16 and the resulting sharp rise in yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. Even so, foreign investors had accumulated net purchases of R$9.57 billion in the Brazilian stock market in September through the 28th, according to data from B3, following an outflow of R$18.1 billion in August. At the end of the month, however, weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data and optimism surrounding the elections helped sustain the market's positive performance. The IBrX 50, which tracks the 50 most actively traded and representative stocks on B3, gained 5.05% for the month and 26.92% year to date. The dollar, meanwhile, ended the month down 0.10%, bringing its decline for the year to 5.73%. “With the discussion about higher interest rates, the U.S. currency is appreciating against other currencies around the world, while here it has been relatively flat because of expectations that the economy will begin to slow down, allowing the Central Bank to continue monetary easing,” Mattos explains. According to Mattos, there had been concerns that the monetary easing cycle was nearing its end, but the latest policy meeting brought a shift in market perceptions. He explains that, despite the decline in interest rates, Brazil’s high Selic benchmark rate continues to attract capital from investors who borrow in currencies with lower interest rates. Gold, which rose 11.8% in August, fell 6.16% in September, also as a result of higher U.S. interest rates. Investing in interest-bearing assets has become more attractive than investing in real assets such as the precious metal. Mattos explains that the rise in the IMA-B 5+ is linked to expectations surrounding the election outcome. “With the election becoming more competitive through August, the gap between the candidates and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had been wider, market participants began to hope for an improvement in the fiscal outlook in 2027,” Mattos says. In fixed income, infrastructure funds once again recorded redemptions and wider spreads on tax-incentivized debentures, following an apparent period of calm in August. Private credit funds, meanwhile, recovered, although their fundraising remained well below last year’s levels. “We are being very conservative with our credit portfolio,” says Nehmi of Sparta. “They are paying very little extra over government bonds for the credit risk.” The asset manager raised R$370 million in September for its exchange-listed infrastructure fund, PREE11, which combines a fixed-rate return with a protection mechanism linked to the CDI. “We are in a very favorable environment for fixed income, but we are extremely cautious about credit. So we have been making only the minimum allocation required by law to qualify for tax exemptions in infrastructure funds while taking advantage of fixed-income opportunities.” This caution toward credit has coincided, however, with a recent shift in market conditions. Nehmi says that spreads on infrastructure credit, which had been compressed, widened more significantly in September, particularly in the final weeks of the month. According to Mattos of Inter Asset, pension funds and individual investors continue to focus on fixed income, while managers of multimarket funds have been looking to stocks for short-term opportunities. At Inter Asset, he says, the portfolio is now more balanced than it was at the beginning of the year. Internationally, the firm has reduced its concentration in real assets, which had benefited from expectations of greater tolerance for inflation, sold part of its gold holdings and marginally reduced risk exposure. It is still waiting for an opportunity to increase its allocation to U.S. fixed-income assets. In Brazil, the firm has been making more frequent tactical adjustments, increasing exposure when it considers pessimism excessive and reducing it after periods of heightened optimism. In equities, it has reduced its concentration in domestic consumption stocks and diversified its holdings, with financial institutions among the highlights of a strategy that also takes the macroeconomic outlook into account. In interest rates, the firm maintains positions designed to benefit from falling yields, particularly in fixed-rate bonds, while adjusting the size of those positions in response to market conditions. At Arton, the portfolio is concentrated in fixed income, with a preference for liquidity. The firm has also been buying NTN-B inflation-linked government bonds, mainly those maturing in 2035, at yields of 7.5% to 8% above the IPCA. Its exposure to Brazilian equities is small, at “well below 10%.” “If I’m going to take on stock market risk, I only do it abroad,” Vieira says. The firm has also reduced its allocation to private credit and its direct exposure to individual issuers. The portfolio's risk exposure in Brazil is concentrated mainly in real estate investment funds (FIIs), which are among the tax-exempt listed investments. Internationally, clients have greater exposure to equities than to fixed income, with a preference for the U.S. stock market and large technology companies. At Armor Capital, the preference is for Brazilian nominal interest rates with maturities of around five years. In the Brazilian stock market, Moreno highlights the oil sector. In the U.S. market, the firm has bought shares in American banks, based on an investment thesis centered on productivity gains from artificial intelligence and increased merger and acquisition activity.