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巴西选民把时间自由当投票议题,C 阶层月入 610 至 2150 雷亚尔群体最敏感

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Quality time emerges as an election issue

政治学家 Renato Meirelles 研究巴西选民 25 年发现,工作时间长、通勤耗时、缺乏个人生活时间正取代公共安全等传统议题,成为影响投票的关键因素;CLT 正式就业在部分年轻人中吸引力下降,社会保障体系缴费基础面临收缩。

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C 阶层月入 610 至 2150 雷亚尔,CLT 就业吸引力下降,INSS 缴费基础或收缩,影响用工成本与社保合规。

在巴西选举议题清单上,公共安全、教育、医疗和捍卫民主看似更为具体,但政治学家、民意研究公司 Locomotiva 创始人兼 CEO Renato Meirelles 指出,对选民而言时间才是最重要的。他研究巴西选民行为 25 年,尤其关注月人均家庭收入 610 至 2150 雷亚尔的 C 阶层。工作时间长、公共交通通勤耗时、工作之外缺乏生活时间,已成为日常生活中的持续困扰,并直接影响政治选择。这一趋势反映在 CLT 正式就业地位下降上,进而对以正规就业缴费为基础的社会保障体系构成压力。

Meirelles 的观察基于 25 年选民行为研究。他发现,在向选民提出的议题清单上,公共安全、教育、医疗和捍卫民主似乎更为具体,也是领先候选人竞选纲领中占据最多篇幅的主题,但对选民而言,时间才是王道。"今天人们明白,失去时间意味着失去与家人相处的时间、失去金钱、失去尊严,"Meirelles 说。"只有工人重新获得一些时间,统治者与被统治者之间的联系才能恢复。"

这一现象反映在正式就业地位的下降上。在一些年轻圈子里,根据巴西《统一劳动法》(CLT)正式就业已成为失败者的代名词。据 Locomotiva 团队称,这些群体中一个流行的笑话将熨衣板描述为"找了 CLT 工作的冲浪板"。Meirelles 指出,人们与时间的关系正在被重新计算——在政府办公室排队等待一小时值多少,或在大都市区每天仅上下班通勤就花三小时的成本。

38 岁的里约热内卢居民 Bruno Leal 的决定是这一趋势的注脚。他在失去 IT 程序员的正式工作后,用遣散费购买了一辆新的丰田卡罗拉,成为 Uber Black 司机。他收到过重返 CLT 就业的邀请,最高月薪达 14000 雷亚尔,但自主管理时间的自由更重要。"作为 Uber 司机,我每月能赚约 12000 雷亚尔。我自己设定时间,优先接预约单,还能兼顾自由职业 IT 工作,"Leal 说。"不值得,"这位曾在安永等大公司工作过的程序员总结道。自主安排工作日、平衡工作与照顾年迈父母的能力,是 Leal 不再想放弃的自由。他开始为退休储蓄和投资,并表示"我不相信 30 年后国家社会保障研究所(INSS)还会存在来支付我的退休金"。

另一端是 51 岁的马拉尼昂厨师 Ducilvane Pereira de Araújo。她从 12 岁开始工作,自 1995 年起正式就业,每天从里约西区 Cidade de Deus 附近的 Freguesia 到南区通勤三小时,利用这段时间聊天、交朋友。"我重视 CLT 就业的保障,希望我的权利得到保证。只有通过 INSS 退休后,我才想开一家酒吧或餐厅,在社区里卖我的咸味小吃,"Araújo 说。她的计划包括帮助 13 岁的侄子 Arthur 从 2027 年开始在 Senac 学习烹饪艺术,以组建未来的家庭合伙关系。

对中资企业而言,原文未涉及中资企业直接影响。间接传导机制在于:CLT 正式就业占比下降、个体微型企业家(MEI)和应用程序接单等替代性工作安排扩大,意味着以正规就业缴费为基础的社会保障体系缴费者可能减少。若这一趋势持续,巴西劳动力市场的用工成本结构、社保合规要求以及消费信贷基础都可能发生变化,进而影响在巴从事零售、消费金融、平台经济及本地用工的中资企业的经营环境。

CBI 解读:原文显示,Meirelles 的研究将时间自由置于选举议题的核心,Bruno Leal 拒绝 14000 雷亚尔月薪的 CLT 邀请而选择月入约 12000 雷亚尔的 Uber 工作,Ducilvane 则坚持 CLT 保障并计划退休后创业,两种选择并存说明巴西劳动力市场正在分化而非单向转变。经济学家 Eduardo Giannetti 指出,"巴西人倾向于活在当下,享受刺激情境,进行魔法思维。退休规划没有吸引力。储蓄需要极大的自律。"他认为巴西人似乎想要两全其美——选择当下最好的,同时对未来依赖魔法思维。Giannetti 还表示,"政府不创造资源;它只是将资源从一个地方转移到另一个地方。政府是一棵巨大的摇树机。直到巴西提高生产力,收入将仍低于为政府融资所需的水平。"CBI 认为,这一判断对理解巴西社保改革空间和劳动力成本走势具有参考价值,但原文未提供具体改革时间表或立法动向,不宜据此推断短期政策变化。

待观察:一、Locomotiva 后续是否发布关于 C 阶层时间成本与投票倾向的量化调查;二、巴西社保改革相关讨论是否在选举周期内进入立法议程,INSS 缴费规则是否调整;三、MEI 及平台工作者数量变化,可跟踪巴西税务局(Receita Federal)相关登记数据。

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Quality time emerges as an election issue

Eduardo Giannetti Carol Carquejeiro/Valor On lists of issues presented to voters, public safety, education, healthcare, and defending democracy seem more concrete. These are also the subjects that take up the most space in the leading candidates’ platforms—those who believe they may actually have to implement what they put on paper. But for voters, time is king. Working hours, long commutes on public transportation, and the lack of time for life outside work are ever-present concerns in daily life and political choices. “People today understand that losing time means losing time with family, losing money, and losing dignity,” said political scientist Renato Meirelles, founder and CEO of public-opinion research firm Locomotiva. “The connection between those who govern and those who are governed will be restored only if workers regain some of their time,” said Meirelles, who has studied Brazilian voter behavior for 25 years, particularly among class C—Brazilians with monthly per capita household income of R$610 to R$2,150. The phenomenon is reflected in the declining status of formal employment, which ties people’s lives to rigid rules and routines. In some younger circles, being formally employed under Brazil’s Consolidated Labor Laws (CLT) has become synonymous with being a loser. According to the Locomotiva team, a popular joke among these groups describes an ironing board as “a surfboard that took a CLT job.” “To me, what has changed is people’s relationship with time—its monetary value, not only in the economic sense, but its broader worth,” Meirelles noted. Knowing how much an hour lost waiting in line at a government office is worth—or costs. Or three hours a day on public transportation simply to get to work and return home in a major metropolitan area. Brazilian voters are calculating these costs more carefully every day. What Meirelles has observed helps explain the decisions of people such as Bruno Leal, a 38-year-old Rio de Janeiro resident. After losing his formal job as an information technology programmer, Leal did not hesitate: he used his severance payment to buy a new Toyota Corolla and became an Uber Black driver. He has received offers to return to CLT employment, but the freedom to manage his own time mattered more. “As an Uber driver, I can earn around R$12,000 a month. I set my own hours, prioritize scheduled rides, and can still fit in freelance IT work,” Leal said, describing a more peaceful life. Programming job offers have topped out at R$14,000 a month. “It isn’t worth it,” the programmer concluded, having worked at large firms including Ernst & Young. The ability to organize his own workday and balance work with caring for his elderly parents are freedoms Leal no longer wants to surrender. He has therefore begun saving and investing for retirement. “I don’t believe the National Social Security Institute [INSS] will still exist to pay my retirement benefits 30 years from now,” he said. For economists concerned about the finances and future of Brazil’s Social Security system, the missing piece is precisely how retirement will be funded, whether through individual savings or collectively by Brazilian society. As alternative work arrangements expand—including Individual Microentrepreneurs (MEIs) and people who sell services through apps—the Social Security system will likely have fewer contributors to finance future retirees. “Brazilians tend to live in the present, enjoy exciting situations, and engage in magical thinking. Retirement planning is not appealing. Saving requires a great deal of self-discipline,” said economist Eduardo Giannetti, who believes Brazilians appear to want the best of both worlds—choosing what is best in the here and now while relying on magical thinking about the future. “Government does not generate resources; it merely transfers them from one place to another. Government is one giant tree shaker,” Giannetti observed. “Until Brazil increases productivity, income will remain below the level needed to finance the government.” Ducilvane Pereira de Araújo, a 51-year-old cook from Maranhão, began working at age 12. She celebrated her 15th birthday aboard an Itapemirim bus that took 72 hours to travel from São Luís to Rio de Janeiro. She accepts as a matter of course the three hours she spends commuting each day from Freguesia, in Rio’s West Zone near Cidade de Deus, to the South Zone. She uses the time to talk and make friends while traveling to her job in a private home. She has been formally employed since 1995. “I value the security of CLT employment and want my rights guaranteed. Only after I retire through the INSS will I want to open a bar or restaurant to sell my savory snacks here in the community,” Araújo said. Her plans include helping her 13-year-old nephew Arthur study culinary arts at Senac beginning in 2027, to form a future family partnership. Renato Meirelles Gabriel Reis/Valor In Meirelles’s research, many respondents cited humiliation, discrimination, sexual harassment, and workplace bullying as reasons they had lost the desire to remain salaried employees. However much times may change—and have been changing—the desire to stop putting up with indignities is a powerful motivation for people who exchange the security of CLT employment for the uncertainty of self-employment. “There is a change in preferences among young people and throughout society. People do not want to stop being who they are and place themselves at the mercy [of an employer],” said Giannetti, a member of the Brazilian Academy of Letters and the author of several books. A liberal, Giannetti cited Karl Marx, the theorist of socialism, to describe the situation: “The wage worker feels like himself only when he is not working.” Presidential candidates’ platforms offer proposed responses to this debate in two areas that could also shape voters’ decisions: better conditions for formal workers, particularly through the elimination of the 6x1 schedule—six days of work followed by one day off—and greater freedom, more access to credit, and less bureaucracy for people seeking to start businesses, regardless of their scale. Brazil’s presidential candidates’ platforms address, or at least touch on, these themes, but analysts consider the proposals insufficient. “None of them [the candidates]—no one—fully understands this problem,” Meirelles said. “People want time. They want to be with their families, earn money on their own terms, know that on one day they can make more from a side job or a delivery gig, and that on another they can take their families to Guarujá [on the São Paulo coast],” the researcher said. “This ability to manage your own life, to have control over it, is what gives people dignity,” he added. During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, opportunities for work mediated by digital platforms increased, while access to banking soared through Pix, Brazil’s free instant payment system. Brazil entered the pandemic with 23% of its population outside the banking system and emerged with only 3% lacking access to banking and money-transfer services. “Brazilians who previously needed to be formally registered to receive certain payments or obtain a credit-card terminal gained a way to conduct financial transactions through Pix,” Meirelles said. These new options led to a proliferation of self-employment opportunities. The difference between the periods before and after the pandemic is that, among younger generations, formal salaried employment is no longer synonymous with the aspirational model of success. According to interviews Meirelles and his team conducted, perceptions have also changed among older people. “You have older people approaching retirement who believe that receiving one minimum wage a month in retirement was not worth all the effort they made throughout their lives or the opportunities they lost because of the rigidity imposed by the CLT,” Meirelles concluded. Translation: Todd Harkin

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