巴西大选十天倒计时：卢拉与弗拉维奥民调胶着，在巴中资需锁定政策连续性风险

President Lula and senator Flávio Bolsonaro Ricardo Stuckert/Divulgação Ten days before Brazil’s presidential election, President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in both first- and second-round scenarios, according to a Datafolha poll released Thursday. Lula has 40% of first-round voting intentions, compared with 36% for Flávio. In a potential runoff, the president has 47% and the senator 45%. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction. Lula bets on nationwide mobilization and women voters amid final stretch Lula targets loyal voters while chasing the undecided Analysis: Lula shows signs of recovery, but government ratings lag The survey was conducted after the government announced a 15% increase in cash-transfer program Bolsa Família benefits and amid the fallout from the crisis involving Supreme Court justices. The results were broadly stable from the previous Datafolha poll, released a week earlier on Sept. 17, when Lula and Flávio were also statistically tied in both scenarios. The president had 39% in the first round, compared with 36% for the Liberal Party senator. In a runoff scenario, Lula had 46% and Flávio 44%. Lula and Flávio remain well ahead of their first-round rivals. Augusto Cury of Avante has 5%, Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party has 4%, and Renan Santos of Mission party has 3%. Romeu Zema of Novo and Samara Martins of Popular Unity each have 1%. Blank and invalid votes account for 5%, while 2% of respondents are undecided. In the second-round scenario, Lula edged up to 47% from 46%, while Flávio rose to 45% from 44%. Blank and invalid votes, as well as respondents choosing neither candidate, account for 7%, while 1% are undecided. The Lula and Flávio campaigns have stepped up their schedules in northeastern and southeastern states to win votes. Both have urged supporters of lower-polling candidates to vote strategically in an effort to settle the race in the first round. In the unprompted question, in which respondents are not shown a list of candidates, Lula has 36% and Flávio 27%. Both gained one percentage point from the previous week’s poll. Undecided voters account for 18%, down from 21%. The poll was commissioned by newspaper Folha de S.Paulo and Globo and surveyed 2,002 people between Tuesday and Wednesday. Rejection rates also tied Lula and Flávio have identical rejection rates of 45%. Both stood at 47% in the previous poll. The survey shows that 80% of voters say they are fully decided on their choice for president, while 20% could still change their minds. Among Lula voters, 87% say their choice is final, compared with 85% of Flávio voters. Among voter groups, Lula continues to perform better among lower-income voters, leading Flávio 46% to 32%, and in the Northeast, where he has 55% to the senator’s 25%. In the Southeast, home to the country’s largest voter concentrations, Flávio has 37% and Lula 35%, a statistical tie. Flávio performs better among evangelical voters, with 47% to Lula’s 27%, and in the South, where he has 47% to the president’s 31%. Disapproval of Lula’s administration remains higher than approval. Half of respondents disapprove of the government, while 47% approve and 3% did not answer. The government is rated bad or very bad by 40% of respondents, down from 42% in the previous poll, while 34% rate it good or very good, unchanged from the previous survey. Another 24% consider the government average, up from 23%, while 2% did not answer. The Datafolha results are broadly similar to a Quaest poll released Monday, which also showed Lula and Flávio statistically tied in both scenarios. Quaest had Lula at 37% and Flávio at 33% in the first round. In a potential runoff, Flávio had 42% and Lula 41%. That poll also had a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction.