巴西大选治安路线分裂：卢拉主打金融绞杀，反对派押注布克莱模式

Natasha Bachini Divulgação Longer sentences, new prisons, a lower age of criminal responsibility, and the use of a domestic terrorism designation. This year, opposition candidates in Brazil’s presidential race are embracing a similar set of proposals to curb crime, reflecting a widespread perception that existing rules for punishing criminals are either poorly enforced or too lenient. On the government side, the emphasis is on greater interagency cooperation, more intelligence-led operations, nationwide coordination through a new ministry, and a range of prevention policies. Although they offer different solutions, the campaigns of President Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema share priorities—all call for confronting organized crime, reducing violence against women, and curbing cellphone robberies and theft. Prisons—overcrowded and controlled by criminal factions—are another focus of campaign promises. Academics agree that these are critical issues but see few proposals capable of truly turning the tide against crime. Rafael Alcadipani, a public security professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas, mentioned, “There is a path I call the Bukele path, which almost all opposition candidates are using as a reference, except possibly Cury, who doesn’t make this very clear.” The government of Nayib Bukele has succeeded in reducing crime in El Salvador by imposing legally contested measures such as mass trials and mass incarceration. Bukele has become a right-wing icon and an ally of Donald Trump. “The other path is the one adopted by the Lula government, which has not done much on public security during this term. The truth is that we are living in a desert of ideas and serious, workable proposals in this area.” Brazil remains a country marked by violence, although several indicators have been declining. The most notable drop has been in homicides. In 2015, 45,958 people were victims of intentional homicide in the country, compared with 31,492 in 2025, according to the National Public Security Information System. Experts say the decline cannot be credited to any single government but reflects a series of actions by municipal, state and federal authorities over the years. Despite this, voters continue to prioritize insecurity and crime. This is partly due to the strength of criminal groups and organized crime networks. Additionally, a rise in cellphone thefts has worried residents in numerous cities nationwide, and there has been increased concern over crimes against women, often highlighted by street camera footage made public. “There are two problems that the next president will have to confront with concrete proposals: the expanding control of criminal factions and violence against vulnerable populations, particularly women,” said Natasha Bachini, a researcher at the University of São Paulo’s Center for the Study of Violence. Chico Lucas, the public security spokesman for Lula’s campaign and the country’s current national public security secretary, told Valor that the three “major enemies” will be femicide, cellphone theft and the activities of militias. However, he said operations aimed at financially choking criminal organizations, such as Hidden Carbon, launched in August 2025, will be a priority in a fourth Lula term. Lula is promising to create a Public Security Ministry—as he did in 2022—after Congress approves a proposed constitutional amendment on public security. He also wants to maintain gun controls, strengthen homicide investigations, step up efforts against networks that traffic in stolen cellphones, expand services for women who are victims of violence, and increase monitoring of abusers. Discussing organized crime, Lucas said financial disruption operations carried out since 2023 have had a R$35.8 billion financial impact on criminal organizations. However, there are no signs that the country’s main criminal groups have weakened. Instead, they have adapted to law-enforcement operations and other measures. “Prison remains necessary, as do drug and weapons seizures. But a criminal organization can quickly replace an operative. It is much harder to replace a financial structure that has been blocked, or to lose assets, real estate and money-laundering channels,” Lucas said. Lucas agrees with what many experts and studies have found: frustration with violence has led part of the population to embrace opposition positions that prioritize the use of force. Lucas describes these positions as “simplistic, such as, for example, ‘the only good criminal is a dead criminal.’” He added: “We [in the government] reject that.” Flávio Bolsonaro advocates designating the PCC, CV and other criminal factions and militias as narcoterrorist organizations, following an approach already adopted by the Trump administration in the United States toward some criminal groups. He also proposes creating what he calls an “elite force” of military personnel to form a “wall along the border” against weapons and drugs entering the country, without explaining how this would work in practice. He calls for lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16 from 18 years old and for new penalties for offenders over 14 who commit serious crimes. Regarding violence against women, he supports electronic ankle monitors for abusers whose victims are protected by court orders, as well as “chemical castration” for rapists. However, Brazilian law currently makes no provision for it. In his government platform—whose public security chapter was coordinated by Guilherme Derrite, a former São Paulo state public security secretary—Flávio Bolsonaro promises five new maximum-security prisons “based on the model adopted by El Salvador” and 500,000 new places in the prison system, which already holds nearly 1 million people. Valor sought comment from Derrite, but he was not immediately available. The emphasis on prisons raises numerous questions because people serving prison sentences in Brazil have traditionally been poor and Black. “Is this punitive approach also being used to go after white-collar criminals, people convicted of corruption or ties to criminal organizations? You don’t hear much rhetoric along those lines,” Alcadipani said. Caiado, Zema and Renan Santos are also adding to their campaign promises with calls for more imprisonment. Santos wants a “war on crime” and an “enemy criminal law” doctrine imposing harsher penalties on people with sustained involvement in criminal organizations. He also advocates expanded use of drones and facial recognition to identify wanted individuals. Anti-mafia agency would help Brazil curb crime, Pinotti says Femicide emerges as key issue in Brazil’s 2026 election Caiado calls crime ‘domestic terrorism’ as he unveils security plan Caiado also vows to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 16, classify criminal groups as terrorist organizations, create a Public Security Ministry, and introduce a package of measures to better protect women, among other proposals. Zema also supports classifying criminal organizations as terrorist groups, building more maximum-security prisons, using the Armed Forces in public security—something already permitted in special operations—and imposing stricter rules on repeat offenders. Cury, third in the polls, wants to recreate the Public Security Ministry, take action against criminal organizations and factions, and “cut off the financial channels that sustain” such groups. His platform is broad on specifics, but Cury also calls for expanded use of smart cameras for predictive analysis, drones and artificial intelligence, as well as greater international cooperation in fighting crime. In an analysis of the platforms of Lula, Bolsonaro, Caiado and Santos, the Sou da Paz Institute concluded: “The platforms show that the electoral debate recognizes real problems but still has significant gaps in implementation, funding, targets and evaluation.” (Sofia Aguiar and Lucas Borges Teixeira contributed reporting from Brasília)