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巴西企业巨头集体喊话财政改革,中资需警惕高利率持续

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Brazil’s top companies urge fiscal reform and tax overhaul

巴西大型企业高管在Valor 1000颁奖礼上集体呼吁财政调整和税收改革,警告缺乏纪律将推高利率和通胀。对在巴中资企业意味着融资成本和市场风险可能持续高企。

为什么值得关注

巴西28个行业龙头企业集体呼吁财政调整,直接影响中资企业面临的利率环境和税收改革进程。

周二(8日)在圣保罗Unique酒店举行的Valor 1000颁奖典礼上,巴西大型企业高管集体呼吁财政调整和税收改革。Itaú Unibanco被评为年度企业,其CEO Milton Maluhy Filho强调财政纪律对控制通胀和社会项目的重要性。Gerdau CEO Gustavo Werneck警告,缺乏财政调整将导致利率和通胀压力接近不可逆转点。这一集体表态反映公共债务和利率问题已成为巴西商业环境的核心关切,对在巴中资企业的融资成本和市场预期将产生直接影响。

在由Valor与Época Negócios合作举办、FGV/SP金融研究中心验证标准的Valor 1000颁奖典礼上,覆盖28个行业的巴西大型企业高管罕见地就财政问题集体发声。Itaú Unibanco CEO Milton Maluhy Filho表示,社会政策和财政政策必须齐头并进,财政纪律越强,越能控制通胀并为社会项目创造空间,他呼吁总统候选人将公共财政列为优先事项并提出预算改革以削减固定支出。Gerdau CEO Gustavo Werneck警告,缺乏财政调整将推高利率和通胀,接近不可逆转点,政府必须承诺削减公共支出。WEG CEO Alberto Kuba指出,没有财政调整,国家风险认知将持续。Intelbras CEO Henrique Fernandez强调,财政不稳将导致高利率持续,抑制消费和投资。Editora Globo CEO Frederic Kachar指出,公共债务高企阻碍利率下降,竞选缺乏财政调整辩论令人沮丧。Valor编辑总监Maria Fernanda Delmas则强调企业面临制度危机,需紧急应对。税收改革目标年份为2033年。

底稿未涉及中资企业直接影响,但通过利率和汇率机制间接传导。巴西基准利率Selic目前处于高位,财政不确定性将直接影响雷亚尔汇率波动和本地融资成本。对在巴从事制造业、基建和农业的中资企业而言,高利率意味着项目融资成本上升、投资回报周期拉长;对贸易商而言,汇率波动加剧将侵蚀利润空间。税收改革推进节奏将直接影响中资企业的合规成本和税务规划,需密切关注Receita Federal(联邦税务局)后续实施细则。

底稿显示,巴西大型企业高管一致认为财政调整是控制通胀和降低利率的前提,且警告当前路径接近不可逆转点。CBI认为,这一集体表态释放了明确信号:巴西商业界对财政纪律的诉求已超越个别行业,成为普遍共识。值得注意的是,高管们将矛头指向总统候选人,暗示明年大选后财政政策走向存在不确定性。CBI观察,巴西公共债务占GDP比重持续攀升,若财政调整缺位,Selic利率可能长期维持高位,这将压缩中资企业在巴西的融资空间和投资回报预期。

待观察的跟踪点包括:巴西财政部下一阶段预算削减方案的具体公布时间;税收改革中涉及企业所得税和间接税合并的实施细则何时落地;以及巴西央行下次货币政策会议对Selic利率的调整决定。

CBI 观察编辑判断

事实是巴西大企业高管在公开场合集体呼吁财政调整和税收改革,警告高利率和通胀风险。CBI认为,这一信号表明巴西商业环境对财政纪律的诉求已形成共识,中资企业应评估高利率环境对融资成本和市场需求的持续性影响。

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信息概要

类型
行业趋势
方向
巴西
分类
宏观市场
层级
编辑整理
地点
在巴中资企业,涉及制造业、基建、农业及贸易商;巴西本地企业及投资者。
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资企业金融机构税务合规负责人
话题
政策税务行业趋势

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Brazil’s top companies urge fiscal reform and tax overhaul
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Brazil’s top companies urge fiscal reform and tax overhaul

Valor 1000 awards ceremony honored leading companies across 28 sectors, with Itaú named Company of the Year Felipe Gabriel/Valor Two recurring issues on the corporate agenda have taken on greater urgency. One is the consumption tax overhaul, which enters a new phase in 2027 and aims to implement a simpler, more efficient system—which has long been needed—by 2033. The other is the adjustment of public finances, another essential item on the agenda, which is in a different position: its implementation remains uncertain, despite being part of the election debate. These two issues, which have always been crucial to the quality of Brazil’s business environment, rank among the main concerns of the country’s largest companies, according to the Valor 1000 ranking, whose winners were honored Tuesday (8) at an event at the Unique hotel in São Paulo. Serasa Experian compiled the ranking in partnership with Valor and Época Negócios. FGV/SP’s Center for Financial Studies validated the survey criteria. Justice orders Federal Police chief removed amid court crisis Tighter presidential race lifts Brazilian markets Voters want more options, political polarization expert says The resilience of Brazilian companies, which continued to grow revenue despite a challenging environment, was highlighted by Frederic Kachar, CEO of Editora Globo and Sistema Globo de Rádio. He stressed how difficult it is for short- and medium-term interest rates to decline in real terms as long as public debt remains high. For Kachar, the lack of a substantive debate over fiscal adjustment in the presidential campaigns is a source of frustration. “This issue can no longer be postponed. Fiscal adjustment is necessary,” he said. “In Brazil, we are facing institutional crises and challenges that need to be addressed urgently,” said Maria Fernanda Delmas, editorial director of Valor and Editora Globo’s business and economics brands, in opening the event. “The work of the companies we are honoring today is an integral part of people’s lives and of building a country. We know this is an ongoing process, with successes and mistakes, and that it is subject to our critical coverage as a way of contributing to a better society. It can also inspire many other businesses and professionals to follow a better path,” she said. “We seek to look at companies’ financial health, but also at the broader responsibility of each corporation—its commitments to the communities where it operates, consumers, employees, public authorities, suppliers and other partners, the environment, and investors.” Executives at the winning companies assess the current environment from this broader perspective. “Social policy and fiscal policy have to go hand in hand. The more disciplined you are fiscally, the more you can control inflation and create room for social programs,” said Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO of Itaú Unibanco, the 2026 Company of the Year and winner in the financial sector. The executive said public finances should be at the top of every presidential candidate’s priorities. “Whoever wins the election needs to urgently propose a budget reform, make the budget more flexible, eliminate a large portion of fixed spending, and tackle this problem. We need to create room to cut spending and better prioritize investment,” he said. “This will require action by the executive and legislative branches and by society as a whole. That would create room for private credit, both domestic and foreign, so that we can start talking about productivity.” The trajectory of public debt is a concern for industrial executives. Gustavo Werneck, CEO of Gerdau—the winner in the steel and metals sector in the Valor 1000 ranking—issued a strong warning. “The lack of fiscal adjustment puts pressure on interest rates and inflation. We are approaching a point of no return. Government officials and those seeking office can no longer simply talk about it. We cannot enter 2027 without a commitment to fiscal adjustment focused on reducing public spending,” he said. “Without adjustment, there is no public investment. Without economic growth, companies won’t invest. It is a fundamental issue for Gerdau’s investment decisions.” Alberto Kuba, CEO of WEG, the top-ranked company in the machinery sector, shares that view. He noted that the company works with long-term plans but expressed concern about the current environment. “Without fiscal adjustment, perceptions of [high] country risk will persist.” For Henrique Fernandez, CEO of Intelbras, the winner in the electronics sector, putting public finances on a sounder footing is imperative. “Without it, interest rates will remain high for longer, making credit more expensive, curbing consumption and delaying investment decisions,” he said. “High interest rates that persist for a long time mean more selective demand and longer decision-making cycles among customers,” the executive said. Valter Pitol, managing director of Cooperativa Agroindustrial Consolata (Copacol), the top-ranked company in agribusiness, sees a challenging outlook despite the company’s strong results. “For 2027, we see a lot of fiscal uncertainty, a higher cost of capital, and a weaker real,” he said. According to Pitol, a deterioration in the fiscal outlook could lead Copacol to postpone planned investments. The concern cuts across industries. Diogo Corona, CEO of Smart Fit—the winner in specialized services—said fiscal policy affects the entire economic backdrop, including interest rates, inflation, the exchange rate, and overall confidence. “A more predictable environment helps support investment and consumption decisions,” he said. “We need interest rates to be less restrictive,” said Leonardo Mesquita, co-CEO of Cury Construtora, the winner in real estate development. “Once interest rates return to more normal levels, we will be able to make investments with a longer-term view.” Executives say greater predictability would be especially welcome at a time when companies are undergoing significant adjustments because of the ongoing tax overhaul. The introduction of the Contribution over Goods and Services (CBS) will require changes to billing, accounting, and procurement processes at Sabesp, the winner in the water, sanitation, and environmental services sector. “The main challenge will be managing the transition safely while maintaining operational continuity and the quality of tax information,” said CEO Carlos Piani. Éder Odvar Lopes, CEO of Inpasa, the top-ranked company in bioenergy, sees the tax overhaul as a historic transition. He said the biggest hurdle could be the regulation of special regimes, including regional tax incentives. “For a company operating in several states and with extensive supplier networks, the main task is adapting systems, tax processes, contracts, and financial flows to the new model,” he said. Marcelo Oberg, CEO of Sotreq, the top-ranked company in wholesale and foreign trade, said the biggest test is not adapting to new tax rates and levies but preserving working capital. “It is essential to have mechanisms ensuring that the stock of tax credits from the previous system, particularly ICMS [state value-added tax], can be recovered so companies can maintain healthy cash flow,” he said. At RD Saúde, which owns the Droga Raia and Drogasil pharmacy chains and won in retail, the preferential tax treatment provided for certain medicines is viewed as a step forward. “The measure could help expand access to and adherence to treatment, particularly among patients with chronic conditions,” said CEO Renato Raduan. “We are well advanced on this agenda, with our systems and processes being prepared to ensure a safe and proper transition to the new model,” he said, describing the reform as structurally positive. André De Angelo, CEO of Acciona Brasil, the leader in construction and engineering, highlighted the impact of the tax overhaul on long-term concession contracts. “These contracts will span different tax regimes over their terms,” he said. “That affects financial models and requires mechanisms to restore the economic and financial balance of contracts with the granting authorities.” According to Carlo Bergamaschi, executive director of Valgroup, the winner in plastics and rubber, the transition is highly demanding, particularly for a company operating in several states with a complex value chain. Changes to the rules and implementation timelines for different stages of the overhaul add to the complexity. Even so, he is optimistic. He believes the new system could bring significant improvements, such as reducing tax evasion and informality—“which means a fairer competitive environment,” he said. The 2026 edition of the ranking assessed 1,034 companies based on financial performance. In a second stage, the highest-ranked companies were evaluated using ESG criteria—environmental, social, and governance practices—to determine the leaders in 28 sectors of the economy. In a year marked by numerous challenges—from high interest rates and rising debt at home to wars that have severely disrupted global supply chains and heightened geopolitical tensions—these companies managed to grow both revenue and profit. The Valor 1000 awards are organized by Valor Econômico and Época Negócios, with gold sponsorship from Alelo, Caixa Seguridade, Huawei, and Deloitte; silver sponsorship from FGV Educação Executiva, Vibra, MBRF, Febraban, and XP; and bronze sponsorship from Intelbras, CNI Sistema Indústria, Sicredi, and Mineração Taboca. Azul is the event’s official airline, and GAC is its official vehicle partner, with support from FIESP and Eletromidia and partnerships with Serasa Experian and FGVcef/FGV-SP. (Marcos Coronato contributed reporting)

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