巴西大选候选人20年首降，中资企业需重估国会游说格局

2026 Elections: compared with 2022, number of candidates fell from 29,262 to 20,575, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) Foto: Divulgação/TSE/Foto: Divulgação/TSE Changes to the rules governing political parties and federations, the concentration of financial power within party leadership, and low expectations of turnover in the Chamber of Deputies have reduced the number of registered candidates in Brazil’s general elections for the first time in 20 years. Compared with 2022, the decline was sharp, from 29,262 to 20,575 candidates, according to data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). “The end of coalitions was decisive. The system has responded by reducing the number of parties, both in the states and in the Chamber. There has also been a decline in the number of candidates, even more pronounced in city council and state legislative races. The choice was made in favor of governability,” said political scientist Luciana Veiga, a professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) and the Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UniRio). Electoral Court considers tougher rules after AI-generated Bolsonaro video Election authorities unprepared for AI, expert says Femicide emerges as key issue in Brazil’s 2026 election The number of parties fell from 32 to 30 over the four years, while the number of party federations rose from three to five, involving 11 parties. The ban on coalitions in proportional elections—for members of the Chamber of Deputies and city councils—and restrictions on party federations are among the main reasons for the decline in the number of candidates in the 2026 elections. Since the changes took effect in 2020, each party has been allowed to field candidates equivalent to 100% of the seats being contested, plus one. The same rule applies to party federations, such as Progressist Union, formed by Brazil Union and the Progressive Party (PP), which are treated as a single party for this purpose. Previously, parties could field candidates for up to 150% of the seats, while coalitions could field up to 200%. The 2026 figures are based on registration requests processed by the TSE through Tuesday (18), after the deadline for filing candidacies expired Saturday (15). The figures may still change as candidacies are challenged or rejected. Valor used data from the same stage of the electoral process dating back to 2002 as a basis for comparison. This century, the only previous decline was a slight drop between 2002 and 2006, followed by sharp increases in the 2018 and 2022 elections. The decline was an expected consequence of the 2017 electoral overhaul. Constitutional Amendment 97, approved that year, banned party coalitions in proportional elections for members of the Lower House and city councils. The goal was to reduce fragmentation in Brazil’s party system and encourage consolidation into a smaller number of parties. The electoral performance threshold, also known as the barrier clause, serves a similar purpose by tying access to the annual Party Fund and mandatory free television and radio advertising time to a party’s electoral performance. Political scientist Glauco Peres da Silva of the University of São Paulo (USP) believes the increase in party federations, from three to five, also played a role. The three federations created in 2022, comprising seven parties, remain active because the law requires them to stay together for at least four years. But he offers another explanation, particularly for the decline in the number of candidates for the Chamber: the concentration of control over campaign funding in party leadership since the Electoral Fund was created in 2017. “Campaign financing is now concentrated in the hands of the parties. Fewer people, fewer outsiders can run because they are unable to seek funding other than from individuals, since companies can no longer fund campaigns,” Peres da Silva said. “Either you have good connections within your party, or you won’t be able to fund your campaign.” This year, the Electoral Fund is distributing R$4.9 billion, virtually the same nominal amount as in 2022. The fund was created as part of the 2017 electoral overhaul, after the Federal Supreme Court (STF) ruled in 2015, in the wake of the anti-corruption task force Car Wash, that corporate campaign donations were unconstitutional. Another factor making it harder to renew the Chamber is the concentration of power among incumbents through congressional earmarks. Congress controls R$61 billion in federal investment in 2026, including R$20.5 billion in non-budget earmarks allocated to members of the Chamber. “Lawmakers have gained a great deal of visibility through non-budget earmarks, as well as many opportunities to connect with voters through social media and publicize every stage of it, from receiving requests to securing the funds, carrying out the project and inaugurating it,” Veiga said, describing what she calls the digital “performance of representation.” “At every stage, lawmakers add value to their public image,” she said. Another possible consequence of the changes to electoral legislation is reduced representation of minorities, including women and Black Brazilians. “It is an unintended but expected effect. In a sense, this decline in representation was the price to be paid for governability,” Veiga said, referring to the reduction in the number of parties. In 2026, the number of women candidates declined in races for nearly every office, with the exception of the Senate, where it reached a record 69. A total of 7,144 women are running this year, compared with 9,890 in 2022. The drop is significant, but their share of all candidates has remained broadly stable: women account for 34.8% of candidates, compared with 33.8% in 2022. Since 2009, parties have been required to reserve 30% of their candidacies for women in proportional elections. Following rulings by the TSE and STF in 2018, parties must also allocate 30% of their campaign funds to women candidates, but the requirement is frequently violated or circumvented through accounting maneuvers. Another factor discouraging women from running for office, according to Veiga, is political violence against women, which has intensified and spread on social media. “That frightens women, as they want to protect their families.” A study by the Observatory of Political and Electoral Violence covering April through June 2026 found that 54% of cases involving women were classified as semiotic violence, generally through social media, followed by psychological violence at 25%, and physical violence at 21%. Male politicians are the largest group of victims of physical political violence.