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巴西启动对美反制程序,对美出口中资企业需评估转口风险

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Brazil starts process for possible retaliation against U.S. tariffs

巴西政府周四正式启动《经济互惠法》程序,回应美国25%钢铝关税。此举标志巴美贸易争端升级,在巴中资企业需关注对美出口业务及供应链的间接传导风险。

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巴西启动对美反制程序,巴美贸易争端升级,在巴中资企业需评估对美出口业务及供应链的间接传导风险。

巴西政府于周四正式启动针对美国关税的《经济互惠法》程序,以回应特朗普政府对巴西出口商品征收的25%关税。这是巴西首次采取可能的报复行动,距离美国宣布301关税一个月。巴西外交部已通知美国政府并请求外交磋商,强调对话与谈判意愿。该程序是初步步骤,后续可能涉及公共和私营部门磋商,最终由外贸商会(Camex)评估。若提案通过,政府将制定反制措施,但可根据外交谈判进展随时修改、延迟或暂停。

巴西政府于周四正式启动《经济互惠法》程序,以回应美国对巴西出口商品征收的25%关税。此举是巴西首次采取可能的报复行动,距美国宣布301关税一个月。巴西外交部已通知美国政府并请求外交磋商,总统通讯办公室表示,这些磋商"强化了其在国际关系中优先考虑对话与谈判的意愿"。声明称,过去一年巴西政府一直与美国贸易代表办公室合作,以结束301调查,并提交证据驳斥对巴西不公平贸易行为的指控。该审查仅是初步步骤,可能涉及公共和私营部门磋商。根据2025年7月发布的规则,巴西外贸商会(Camex)最终需评估任何拟议行动。若提案获批,政府将指定反制措施,但可根据外交谈判进展随时修改、延迟或暂停。自美国关税宣布以来,巴西一直在考虑该法律。次日,副总统阿尔克明称其为"重要法律工具",政府将评估"实施时机和方式"。此后,外交部和发展、工业、贸易和服务部官员试图谈判降低关税或增加豁免清单,但未成功。政府还表示将通过"主权巴西"计划保护受关税影响的行业,该计划旨在保住就业和国内生产能力。美国关税生效一周后,总统卢拉启动了该计划第三阶段,旨在向受影响企业和战略行业提供信贷,计划拨款185亿雷亚尔,包括关键矿产和化肥等战略部门以及向波斯湾出口的公司。

底稿未涉及中资企业直接影响,但通过两条机制间接传导:其一,在巴中资企业若通过巴西工厂对美出口,需关注巴西反制措施可能引发的美国进一步报复,导致对美出口通道收窄;其二,巴西政府为保护受关税影响行业而推出的185亿雷亚尔信贷计划,可能改变部分行业的竞争格局,中资企业需评估自身是否在受益范围内。涉及监管机构包括巴西外贸商会(Camex)、发展、工业、贸易和服务部,以及外交部。

底稿显示,巴西政府再次批评美国关税"不公正且武断",并誓言在多边论坛上捍卫立场。CBI认为,巴西此次启动程序更多是姿态性施压,而非立即实施报复——法律程序本身留有充分的谈判空间,且政府明确表示可根据外交谈判进展随时修改、延迟或暂停。但CBI观察,参与讨论的官员对很快逆转措施日益悲观,称特朗普政府立场坚定,巴西外交官注意到随着总统选举临近,美方敌意增加,部分原因是美国国务卿卢比奥将关税与卢拉立场挂钩的公开评论。这意味着短期内巴美贸易摩擦难以缓解,中资企业应做好长期应对准备。

待观察:一是巴西外交部与美国贸易代表办公室的磋商进展,是否在近期有公开声明;二是Camex是否公布拟议反制措施的清单及时间表;三是"主权巴西"计划第三阶段185亿雷亚尔信贷的实际发放节奏和行业覆盖范围。

CBI 观察编辑判断

底稿显示巴西政府启动《经济互惠法》程序,但明确保留谈判空间,可随时修改、延迟或暂停。CBI认为,此举更多是施压姿态而非立即报复,但美方立场坚定且总统选举临近,短期内摩擦难以缓解。

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信息概要

类型
政策发布
方向
巴西
分类
贸易物流
层级
编辑整理
地点
在巴设厂对美出口的中资企业、依赖巴西信贷支持的行业(如矿产、化肥)
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资企业贸易商出口商
话题
贸易政策法律

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Brazil starts process for possible retaliation against U.S. tariffs
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Brazil starts process for possible retaliation against U.S. tariffs

Marco Rubio Jose Luis Magana/Associated Press Brazil officially started the process on Thursday to potentially invoke its Economic Reciprocity Law against the United States. This move is a response to the Trump administration’s 25% tariff on Brazilian exports, marking an escalation in the trade dispute and increasing diplomatic tensions between the two nations. This action represents the first move towards possible retaliation, coming a month after Washington announced the Section 301 tariff. Brazil challenges new U.S. tariffs at WTO Lula criticizes Trump tariffs in “Washington Post” op-ed Trump’s tariffs hurt, but not that much Brazil’s Foreign Affairs Ministry has informed the U.S. government of the start of the process and has requested diplomatic consultations, according to the presidential communications office. The government emphasized that these consultations “reinforce its willingness to prioritize dialogue and negotiation in its international relations.” “Over the past year, the Brazilian government has consistently worked with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to end the Section 301 investigations and has presented evidence refuting each allegation of purported unfair trade practices by Brazil,” the statement said. The review is merely the initial step in a process that may involve consultations with representatives from both public and private sectors. According to rules issued in July 2025, Brazil’s foreign trade chamber, Camex, is ultimately required to evaluate any proposed actions. If the proposal is approved, the government will specify the countermeasures it plans to adopt, subject to further review. These measures may be revised, delayed, or suspended at any time based on the progress of diplomatic negotiations. The reciprocity law had been considered since the U.S. tariff announcement. The next day, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin described the legislation as “an important legal instrument” and said the government would evaluate “the right time and manner” to implement it. Since then, officials from the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services have tried to negotiate lower tariffs or increase the exemptions list, but without success. The government said it would also maintain measures to protect industries affected by the tariffs through its Brasil Soberano program, which aims to preserve jobs and domestic production capacity. One week after the U.S. tariff took effect, President Lula initiated the third phase of the program, aimed at extending credit to affected companies and industries deemed strategically vital to the economy. The government intends to allocate up to R$18.5 billion to industries affected by the tariffs, including strategic sectors such as critical minerals and fertilizers, as well as companies exporting to the Persian Gulf. In Thursday’s statement, the government again criticized the Trump administration’s measures: “The U.S. tariffs are unjustified and arbitrary, and Brazil will continue to defend its position in every appropriate forum,” it said. “We will continue to defend multilateralism and the reform of the World Trade Organization while working to diversify our trade partnerships and open new markets for our products.” Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act allows the U.S. Trade Representative to investigate foreign practices considered harmful to American commerce and take action in response. The investigation into Brazil covers several issues, including the country’s Pix instant payment system, alleged sales of counterfeit goods, and claims that Brazil restricts U.S. social media platforms. Brazil has formally rejected these allegations. While the Brazilian government still highlights the potential for negotiations, officials involved in the discussions are increasingly pessimistic about reversing the measures soon. They claim the Trump administration remains firm, with Brazilian diplomats noting increased hostility as the presidential election nears, partly due to public comments by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio connecting tariffs to Lula’s position.

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