巴西央行中性声明推高利率期货，雷亚尔升值，中资企业需关注汇率波动

Gustavo Pessoa, partner and fixed-income portfolio manager at Legacy Capital Anna Carolina Negri/Valor The statement released after Wednesday’s (5) decision by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) was the main driver of moves in Brazil’s fixed-income and foreign exchange markets on Thursday. Although the cut in the benchmark Selic rate to 14%, without clear guidance on the next steps, was in line with market expectations, the absence of any bias toward continuing the monetary easing cycle removed the risk of a more dovish message, putting significant upward pressure on interest rate futures and supporting the real during the session. Analysis: Next rate cut is not yet guaranteed Copom likely to keep cutting Selic through year-end, Vinci Compass says Nothing in Copom statement rules out another Selic cut, Adam Capital says The January 2028 DI futures rate rose from 13.795% to 13.865% by the close of trading, while the January 2031 contract climbed from 14.195% to 14.33%. Meanwhile, the spot dollar ended the day down 0.41% at R$5.1070, bucking the broader global trend of a stronger U.S. currency. As a result, the real finished the session as the world’s second-best-performing currency among the 33 most liquid currencies, trailing only the Colombian peso. By opting for a highly neutral communication on Wednesday, the Copom left any further Selic cuts entirely data-dependent while avoiding placing excessive weight on the recent moderation in economic activity and inflation and reinforcing the risks still present in the outlook. Market participants interviewed by Valor said these disappointed investors who had positioned themselves for a more dovish statement that would have made another Selic cut in September all but certain. “What Copom could have done differently would have been to change certain points to give the statement a more ‘dovish’ bias, which it did not do, and that ended up removing that tail risk. That is why the statement was slightly ‘hawkish,’ because Copom did not give in to the temptation to soften its commitment to the inflation target,” said Gustavo Pessoa, partner and fixed-income portfolio manager at Legacy Capital. According to Pessoa, the statement was “concise and clear” and represented a significant improvement over the one issued after the June meeting, which created considerable market noise over the Central Bank’s genuine commitment to its 3% inflation target. Legacy Capital’s baseline scenario calls for one more 25-basis-point cut in the Selic rate, to 13.75%, after which future moves will depend on incoming data, the war in the Middle East and, over the longer term, Brazil’s presidential election and the fiscal policy that emerges from it. In the foreign exchange market, traders said the dollar gave back part of its recent gains against the real, which had been driven, among other factors, by greater caution ahead of Copom’s interest rate decision. Last Monday (3), foreign investors bought nearly $820 million in the derivatives market, underscoring the market’s search for protection. However, with the Central Bank maintaining a more neutral tone and the situation in the Middle East still clouded by uncertainty—pushing oil prices higher once again—holding long dollar positions became less attractive. “In that case, it doesn’t make much sense to keep carrying that position,” one market professional said. It is also worth noting that the real appreciated despite a broader strengthening of the dollar after the Financial Times reported that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh would be willing to raise U.S. interest rates. The report added pressure to domestic interest rates and contributed to the Ibovespa’s sharp 1.23% decline to 175,546 points. “It’s hard to say with certainty, but the war seems to be moving toward an end, and if the U.S. and Iran do reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices should stabilize and the Fed may not even need to raise interest rates. That would weaken the dollar, allowing us to focus more on current economic activity and inflation data,” Pessoa said. “However, if the war escalates, the Fed will have to raise rates,” he added. “Today, I think the chances of either a rate hike or no change [at the Fed’s next meeting in September] are fairly evenly balanced and depend entirely on how the war evolves until then.” Despite the volatility and global risks, the foreign exchange market has remained relatively well behaved, especially compared with interest rates. According to Ricardo Cará Monteiro, chief investment officer (CIO) at EQI Wealth Management, the explanation lies in the continued inflow of dollars into Brazil. “I learned early in my career from one of my bosses, back when I worked at a bank, that you can’t argue against flows. You can come up with any narrative you want—about who will win the election or the fiscal outlook—but what really matters is the flow,” he said, noting that Brazil has attracted nearly $20 billion in inflows this year, compared with almost $15 billion in outflows during the same period last year. Cará also expects the trend toward diversification into markets outside the United States to continue. “Foreign investors are still behaving this way. That hasn’t changed and, in my view, it should continue until there is a change of administration in the U.S., when there may be less volatility and noise surrounding American markets,” he said. “As part of this diversification, foreign investors are looking at emerging market assets.” Against this backdrop, even if the exchange rate becomes more volatile during the election period, the executive does not expect a significant unwinding of positions favorable to the real. “Mainly because there isn’t an excessive exposure to Brazil. Investors are still building positions after having largely ignored the country for a decade. Foreign investors may stop allocating during this period, but I don’t expect them to unwind existing positions.” According to Eduardo Carlier, co-head of Azimut Brasil Wealth Management, a number of macroeconomic variables will determine whether the Ibovespa appreciates going forward, even though the index appears inexpensive from a technical standpoint. Among those variables, he cited the impact of El Niño on different sectors during the second half of the year and, consequently, on inflation, which could alter the course of Brazil’s monetary policy, as well as the direction ultimately taken by the Fed. “At this point, it is necessary to wait for new economic indicators before building a scenario that allows for a more accurate assessment of market trends. Until then, assets are expected to remain volatile,” Carlier said. “In addition to the typical fluctuations that precede the election period, investors are also closely watching developments in oil prices and the Fed’s decisions, meaning it will take more time before the outlook becomes clearer.”