巴西央行四度降息至14%，中资企业融资成本仍处高位

José Márcio Camargo, chief economist at Genial Investimentos, also believes Monetary Policy Committee could cut interest rates again in September Ana Paula Paiva/Valor Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) left its next moves open after lowering the benchmark Selic interest rate from 14.25% to 14% per year, as widely expected. Following the sharp repricing seen in local markets after the statement issued at its previous meeting in June, economists say the Central Bank chose a neutral tone to avoid creating market noise or triggering major reactions across financial assets, while emphasizing that it will monitor incoming data to determine the next steps for the Selic adjustment. Analysis: Risking a hall of mirrors between Copom and Focus Inflation surprise boosts bets on August rate cut The unanimous decision marked the fourth consecutive rate cut, with a magnitude of 25 basis points. Although shorter than the previous statement, the committee again said that the overall size of the calibration cycle will be determined “in light of new information” aimed at ensuring inflation converges to the target—wording that has been retained in all recent statements. “I don’t think this statement will create any market noise. In the previous statement, the Copom tried to explain the rationale behind its inflation forecast for the fourth quarter of 2027. Now the committee has effectively rolled forward the relevant policy horizon. This statement is much more straightforward,” said Natalie Victal, chief economist at SulAmérica Investimentos, who expects inflation to end this year at 5.2%. In its decision, the committee said the additional rate cut is consistent with its strategy of bringing inflation to “around the target” over the relevant policy horizon. It noted that headline inflation has slowed, although it remains above the upper limit of the target range, and that core inflation measures have also eased to a level slightly below the upper limit. On the other hand, the statement described the labor market as “heated,” whereas the previous meeting had referred to it as showing “signs of resilience.” While noting that the Copom reinforced its more cautious stance by highlighting the de-anchoring of inflation expectations, Santander economist Marco Antonio Caruso said the committee also introduced an important counterbalance. “It qualifies that it is monitoring this additional de-anchoring,” he said, but added a caveat. “This committee treats inflation expectations as one of the key variables, not the single most important one. Some central bankers would hardly cut interest rates when expectations are not anchored. That is not the case now.” According to Caruso, the market should now begin discussing the Central Bank’s path if economic data continue evolving as expected. “We still have 13.75% in mind for year-end, but with the understanding that this could change if the data remain favorable. Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? Will the exchange rate deteriorate? Will there be any signals of stronger fiscal efforts? There are many conditions along the way, so we have to assess them one by one,” he said. “In any case, assuming those variables do not worsen, the Central Bank could continue cutting rates through the fourth quarter, with the debate shifting to whether the Selic could reach 13.5% or 13.25%.” As a result, market reactions could already begin reflecting that discussion on Thursday, the Santander economist said. “We could see some movement in Copom digital options, especially for maturities after September. And if that does happen, there could even be a limited impact on the exchange rate because, in theory, lower interest rates would reduce the yield differential that currently supports the real. But it would be only a marginal effect.” Victal, from SulAmérica, agreed that the balance of risks for the Selic now appears tilted toward lower rates, although she maintained her forecast that the benchmark rate will remain at 14% through year-end because of the de-anchoring of inflation expectations. “Even before the Copom meeting, we already recognized this downside bias for interest rates because of the Central Bank’s reaction function. We are seeing current inflation perform somewhat better, and we are looking at how the Central Bank is responding to those data,” she said. “We remain in the more conservative camp, but I would not be surprised if the market further lowered the median forecast for the benchmark interest rate in the Focus survey as inflation continues to decelerate.” Despite holding a more pessimistic view on inflation and arguing that inflation expectations for 2028 remain significantly de-anchored, José Márcio Camargo, chief economist at Genial Investimentos, also believes Copom could cut interest rates again in September. “Copom certainly took comfort from the fact that the IPCA came in below expectations when deciding to lower interest rates. It is relying on the view that the economy is slowing and that disinflationary pressures are building. The labor market remains tight, but it is beginning to show signs of cooling, as is core inflation,” said Camargo, who forecasts the Selic rate will end the year at 13.75%.