中东冲突致巴西化肥交付量或降10%，在巴中资农企采购窗口收窄

Eduardo Monteiro Gabriel Reis/Valor Five months into the conflict in the Middle East, Brazil’s fertilizer industry is already expecting product deliveries for the 2026/27 crop season to fall by at least 10%. The logistical disruption caused by the war has driven up input prices, but it is only part of the problem. Rising farm debt, more expensive credit and weaker returns on major crops are compounding the pressure and prompting growers to delay fertilizer purchases. For the next soybean crop—which farmers in some regions will begin planting in September—leading fertilizer companies estimate that about 80% of purchases have been completed. That is five percentage points below the level at the same stage of the previous season. Purchases for the second corn crop stand at 30%, compared with 35% a year earlier. WTO highlights vulnerability of Brazil and other fertilizer importers Brazil faces tougher fertilizer competition after Trump move Despite the delays, the fertilizer market is now expected to contract less than initially feared because of the war. Eduardo Monteiro, Mosaic Fertilizantes’ country manager for Brazil and Paraguay, told Valor that sales had gained momentum over the past three weeks, supported by a recovery in soybean prices. About 3 million tonnes of fertilizer were sold across the Brazilian market during that period, he said. Purchases picked up as the barter ratio between soybeans and fertilizers improved. “The past three weeks have brought a measure of optimism in this context, but they do not remove all the complexity involved in navigating this challenging environment,” Monteiro said. Fertilizer deliveries in Brazil reached a record 49 million tonnes last year. For this year, consultancies and companies estimate a decline of between 5 million and 10 million tonnes, led by lower volumes of nitrogen and phosphorus products. Monteiro is less pessimistic. “We will perhaps end up somewhere in the middle, or at the lower end, at 5 million,” he said. The estimates largely reflect the rise in fertilizer costs this season. The input now costs the equivalent of two to four more bags of soybeans than at the same time last year, the executive said. Price volatility Since the war began in the Middle East, phosphate and nitrogen fertilizer prices have swung sharply in response to developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Phosphate prices have risen again in recent weeks, driven by a surge in sulfur, a key input in their production and also a raw material used by the battery industry. Nitrogen fertilizer prices have also advanced as the conflict intensified. Data from fertilizer-market consultancy StoneX show sulfur currently priced at $1,152 a tonne, up from $435 at the beginning of the year. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) is trading at about $890 a tonne, well above the $635 seen at the start of the year. Urea, which has risen for four consecutive weeks, costs $461 a tonne, compared with $404 in early January. Sulfur shortages and higher prices led Mosaic to announce another temporary reduction in its Brazilian operations on July 8. Monteiro said there was no timetable for a resumption, which would depend on sulfur prices. Competition for sulfur from the modern battery industry is another concern for major fertilizer producers. “It is an industry that can afford to pay more than the fertilizer sector,” said Guilherme Schmitz, vice president of marketing and agronomy at Yara Brasil, another major producer. Brazil’s fertilizer inventories are currently about 14% below their level at the same point in 2025. Monteiro does not see that as a problem, however, because the domestic market is expected to shrink this year. Existing inventories would cover between two and a half and three months of demand, a level considered normal in Brazil. Logistical bottlenecks In addition to driving up fertilizer prices, the Middle East war has raised logistical concerns for the industry. The period between importing raw materials and processing them in Brazil is about three months from the time cargoes leave countries such as Saudi Arabia or Morocco. “There is still the entire process of loading, transportation, arrival in Brazil, customs clearance, port queues and logistical bottlenecks, so we recommend that farmers plan carefully,” Schmitz said. At Yara, 50% of the raw materials used to produce fertilizer in Brazil come from the company’s own global production system. Europe supplies 25%, while another 25% comes from plants in Rio Grande, in Rio Grande do Sul state; Ponta Grossa, in Paraná; and Cubatão, in São Paulo. The remaining 50% is purchased from countries including China, Morocco, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Canada and the United States. Despite constraints on raw-material supplies, Yara has not had to reduce production in Brazil, Schmitz said. “We are very stable in terms of potash supplies. We have managed to diversify our phosphorus sourcing effectively. Although some supplies come from the conflict region, our partners have been seeking alternatives to adjust logistics and continue supplying us.” Import delays StoneX has not estimated the current pace of fertilizer sales in Brazil, but the consultancy said imports were running behind schedule. “This is a warning sign, because it means that, to rebuild inventories to the same levels as in previous years, Brazil will indeed need to accelerate purchases over the coming months amid renewed tensions in the Middle East,” said Tomás Pernías, a market intelligence analyst at StoneX. Pernías said the possibility that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, off the coast of Yemen, could be closed was another source of concern, given Saudi Arabia’s role as a major fertilizer exporter.