油价单日飙涨9.6%冲击巴西市场，在巴中资企业需警惕成本与汇率双压

Pedro Dreux Luciana Whitaker/Valor A fresh surge in oil prices sent another shock through Brazilian markets on Monday (13), pushing future interest rates sharply higher and weighing on the benchmark Ibovespa stock index. The move followed another blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a wave of attacks across the Middle East, which revived inflation concerns, drove a global bond sell-off and intensified risk aversion toward emerging markets. Government extends oil export tax for 60 days, weighing on producers Brent crude for September delivery jumped 9.6% on the Intercontinental Exchange to $83.3 a barrel, its largest one-day increase since 2020, Wall Street Journal data showed. West Texas Intermediate crude for August rose 9.4% on the New York Mercantile Exchange, settling at $78.14 a barrel. Brazil felt the pressure particularly strongly. Higher oil prices raised concerns about domestic inflation and the outlook for monetary policy, while rising U.S. Treasury yields reduced the appeal of riskier assets. The Ibovespa ended the session down 1.2% at 175,739 points, and the exchange rate per U.S. dollar gained 0.45% to close at R$5.13. Equity losses The Brazilian benchmark’s decline would have been steeper without a sharp increase in Petrobras shares. The oil producer’s preferred stock gained 2.55%, while its common shares climbed 3.44%. The rally added R$16.8 billion to Petrobras’s market capitalization, which ended the session at R$561.6 billion. Amid expectations—reinforced by higher oil prices—that central banks will maintain a restrictive stance, Nau Capital Chief Investment Officer Maurício Valadares said the Brazilian stock market is unlikely to advance “sustainably” for now. In his view, any improvement is likely to be tactical rather than structural, as occurred on Friday, when the Ibovespa jumped nearly 3% after the release of significantly weaker-than-expected IPCA data. Genial Investimentos expressed a similar view, arguing that current conditions do not support a broad shift into equities. Rate pressure The oil rally prompted investors to reprice inflation risks and added to pressure on global fixed-income markets. Government bond yields climbed sharply, returning to levels that have drawn considerable attention from investors. In the U.S., the two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.29%, while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.62%. In Brazil, the combination of higher crude prices and a global bond sell-off triggered sharp stress in future interest rates. A modest deterioration in domestic inflation expectations added to the move. The median forecast for Brazil’s official inflation rate this year fell to 5.16% from 5.30% in the Central Bank’s Focus survey. However, the estimate for inflation in 2027 rose to 4.20% from 4.18%. “This deterioration abroad, with oil rising and the sell-off in global fixed income, hits Brazil directly because it is an emerging market,” said Pedro Dreux, a partner and macro portfolio manager at Occam. Dreux said domestic factors also contributed to the rise in future rates, including a slight worsening in longer-term inflation expectations. “Even with the decline in the 2026 inflation forecast incorporating Friday’s positive surprise in the June IPCA, the 2027 estimate, which is still the Central Bank’s relevant horizon, went up,” he said. “In that sense, it was bad news, and that ends up being reflected in a little more premium in the curve.” “The market is reducing the chances that the cycle will be extended. That was the day’s major development, alongside an international environment in which fixed income came under pressure because of renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices.” Real yields The increase in inflation risk caused by the oil rally was not strongly reflected in Brazil’s breakeven inflation rates, which are calculated from the difference between future interest rates and yields on inflation-linked government bonds, known as NTN-Bs. Only the breakeven rate derived from the NTN-B maturing in May 2027 increased, rising to 5.19% from 5.16%. Market-implied inflation declined across all other maturities because NTN-B yields rose substantially. In practice, investors are pricing in higher real interest rates to contain inflation at a time when inflation-linked bonds are already under pressure. Breakeven inflation also remains elevated, with rates well above 6% in the longest maturities. “The interpretation is one of tactical appetite, without a broad rotation. Investors buy banks, local duration and domestic stories when the curve declines, but the ceiling for relief continues to be set by structural forces.” Hormuz disruption The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and an exchange of attacks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels heightened fears that the conflict could spread across the Middle East. Eurasia Group told clients that an easing of tensions appeared unlikely. The consultancy expects traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to remain at just 5% to 15% of prewar levels, well below the 30% to 50% seen after the cease-fire between the two sides. “Because of this disruption to flows, oil prices are expected to trade in a higher range of between $75 and $95 a barrel,” Gregory Brew, Clayton Allen and Firas Maksad estimated. “The main risk of escalation continues to come from Iran, which remains confident,” they said. In their view, Tehran’s strategic goal is to establish a new “status quo” in the Strait of Hormuz. They consider it “unlikely” that Iran will back down even as U.S. pressure increases. Eurasia also sees a possibility that Tehran could escalate attacks against Gulf energy infrastructure or expand the blockade to include the Red Sea. That scenario partly materialized on Monday, when the Houthis launched missiles at Saudi Arabia. Diplomatic doubts On prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran fell to 30% on Monday evening from 46% at the start of the month. The chance that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen by the end of July dropped to just 3%, compared with 32.5% at the beginning of the month. Citi commodity strategists also began incorporating a more difficult negotiating environment into their forecasts. The U.S. bank said the chances had increased that the Iranian government could abandon its agreement with the United States until after the November midterm elections. “This scenario would most likely imply higher oil prices for an extended period.” Citi’s base case still assumes that the two countries will resume diplomatic talks within one or two weeks. Even so, its strategists expect a greater risk of short-term military escalation, although not to the point of widespread destruction of energy or public infrastructure.