中国电动车涌入致巴西汽车贸易逆差创纪录，中企需关注关税与本地化风险

Fueled by a rapid influx of Chinese electric vehicles, Brazil’s automobile trade balance swung to a $5.32 billion deficit in the first half of the year—the deepest shortfall for the period since records began in 1997. Imports drove the gap, totaling $7.79 billion, itself a first-half record that already surpasses all of last year’s vehicle imports combined ($7.39 billion). Oil drop gives little room for more Selic cuts Brazil weighs potential impact of strong El Niño on agriculture Experts point to the country’s tariff schedule and broader global protectionism, along with shifting dynamics in Brazil’s own vehicle production and market, as the forces behind the trend. Of the vehicles imported in the first half, a record 72% came from China. Argentina was a distant second at 9%, followed by Mexico at 7%. Just a year ago, Chinese vehicles made up only 50% of imports, while Argentina still held a 20% share. The shift has happened fast: five years ago, in the same January-to-June window, China accounted for just 5% of imports and Argentina led the pack with 44%. The figures were compiled by Valor from data released by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex/MDIC). Even as imports climb, Brazilian vehicle exports told the opposite story, falling 15.2% year-over-year to $2.47 billion in the first half—well short of the $3.3 billion peak reached in the same period back in 2017. Import totals include semi-knocked-down (SKD) and completely-knocked-down (CKD) EVs, which had their zero-tariff status extended for another six months in June under quotas worth $463 million, per a ruling from the Executive Management Committee (Gecex/MDIC). Chinese automaker BYD first requested the exemption last year while preparing to open its factory in Camaçari, Bahia. Gecex has now renewed the same arrangement for a further six months after the prior extension lapsed in January. Before that renewal came through, Igor Calvet, president of the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea), warned the group could pursue legal action if the benefit were extended again. Anfavea estimates that if every automaker chose to import semi-assembled or fully built vehicles rather than manufacture domestically, the hit to Brazil’s economy could reach R$240 billion. The technical note behind Gecex’s decision acknowledges that electrification is a net positive for Brazil’s auto market in terms of bringing in new technology — but cautions that it “requires public policy calibration to prevent Brazil from becoming merely a consumer market for imported vehicles, systems, batteries and platforms.” André Valério, an economist at Banco Inter, ties the strong first-half import numbers to a separate tariff schedule covering fully assembled EVs. Those vehicles enjoyed zero tariffs until 2023; rates then began climbing gradually starting in January 2024. That phase-in ended in June, meaning EV imports now face the full 35% ceiling. “What we saw in 2026 was somewhat unusual compared to prior years — it looks like a wave of automakers front-loading imports and building up inventory, because underlying demand for electric vehicles in Brazil keeps growing, with China gaining ground in this segment,” Valério says. Now that the new tariffs on fully assembled EVs have kicked in, he expects imports to “normalize.” Still, he doesn’t see the sector’s trade balance flipping back to a surplus this year, given how weak exports remain. “A rebound on the export side looks unlikely, since our market leans heavily on Mercosur, and we’ve lost ground there—especially in Argentina, which used to be a major destination for our exports. Meanwhile, demand for electric vehicles should keep rising, particularly as energy sources shift.” Andrea Weiss Balassiano Leo Pinheiro/Valor The auto sector used to be a reliable contributor to Brazil’s overall trade surplus. Annually, it ran in the black for seven straight years, from 2016 through 2022. That changed in 2023, as Chinese electrified vehicles began arriving in force and the balance tipped into deficit. By 2024, the shortfall had widened to $4 billion. Stronger exports to Argentina helped narrow the gap last year, but not enough to restore a surplus—2025 closed with a $1.5 billion deficit. Chinese EVs have rapidly reshaped the mix of cars entering Brazil. Electrified models—hybrids and fully electric vehicles combined—made up 79% of first-half imports this year, up from 66% in 2025 and 70% in 2024. Go back to 2021 and the figure was just 17%; two years before that, a mere 4% (all first-half comparisons). The second half of the year typically sees a smaller electrified share than the first, though the upward trend holds: from July to December 2025, electrified vehicles were 51% of imports, versus 31% in the same period of 2024 and 47% in 2023. In the second half of 2021 that share was 16%, and two years earlier, 10%. Andrea Weiss Balassiano, an international trade lawyer and partner at Monteiro & Weiss Trade, says the data show that rising tariffs on fully assembled electrified vehicles haven’t been enough to slow the flow of Chinese cars. “The tariff schedule was announced well ahead of time, which let Chinese companies plan their investments and market-entry strategy in Brazil,” Balassiano says. Even so, she notes, Chinese vehicles keep arriving at a rapid clip, backed by the industry’s competitiveness, scale, integrated supply chains and aggressive sales strategy. “It’s worth remembering that what we’re seeing in Brazil is only part of the picture—China has more than 300 vehicle brands,” she says. Data from the Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), published by the Brazilian Institute of Economics at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre), show Chinese vehicles arriving at highly competitive prices. Import volumes of durable consumer goods from China jumped 157.6% between January and May this year compared to the same stretch in 2025—even as prices fell 5.6%. That’s the reverse of what’s happening with Argentina: durable goods import volumes from there dropped 20.6%, while average prices rose 2.2% over the same period. “Imports of Chinese vehicles are all but inevitable, given the economies of scale and excess production China is dealing with, since it’s struggled to boost domestic consumption. China also faces export restrictions in other markets, and Brazil’s auto market is comparatively large,” says Lia Valls, Icomex’s coordinator and an associate researcher at FGV Ibre. Balassiano points out that the European Union investigated alleged subsidies behind Chinese vehicle sales in the bloc, resulting in 2024 retaliatory duties—varying by automaker and reaching as high as 35.3%—though these applied only to fully electric vehicles. “Since 2025, and even more so in 2026, the focus has shifted to hybrids. The EU is now weighing whether to extend the existing measure to hybrids or open a fresh subsidy investigation targeting them specifically,” she says. On the tariff front more broadly, she also cites the United States, which slapped a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicle imports under Section 301 of U.S. trade law, and notes that Canada and Turkey have raised their own EV import tariffs as well. This year’s first-half import numbers even top those from 2011, when Brazil last saw a comparable surge—that time in Asian vehicle imports generally. The influx back then prompted a 30-percentage-point hike to the Industrialized Products Tax (IPI) on imported vehicles that September, a move later challenged at the World Trade Organization, whose dispute panel ultimately ruled that Brazil had to revise its tax regime. This time is different, says Livio Ribeiro, a partner at BRCG and associate researcher at FGV Ibre. The imports now, he notes, are coming from automakers that are simultaneously building manufacturing operations in Brazil—reshaping the domestic auto market and its manufacturing base in the process. He believes the sector’s trade deficit could eventually narrow, since several Chinese manufacturers investing in Brazil have signaled plans to turn their local production into an export platform. As these companies expand output and follow through on localization plans, Ribeiro adds, they may well earn a seat among the industry associations that represent Brazil’s more established automakers.