中国电动车品牌占巴西7月销量62.5%，燃油需求2027年起或逆转下降

Marcel Martin, of ICCT Brasil Ana Paula Paiva/Valor Rapid growth in electric vehicle sales in Brazil is beginning to affect demand for gasoline and ethanol, a trend expected to intensify over the next two decades, according to expert estimates. A Citi study estimates that 700 million liters of fuel—specifically ethanol and gasoline—were not consumed in Brazil last year because of the use of electrified vehicles, including electric and hybrid models. The amount was equivalent to 1% of domestic demand in 2025. Citi says the shift is structural and long-term. Based on a projected 1.8% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) over the 2025-2026 period, the bank expects consumption of fuels used by vehicles with internal-combustion engines—a category that includes ethanol and gasoline and is known as the Otto cycle—to grow at a rate equivalent to roughly 120% of GDP growth. Starting in 2027, however, the trend is expected to reverse, with demand declining even as GDP expands. Stellantis reshapes Brazil strategy as Chinese EV rivals gain ground Brazil becomes world’s top importer of Chinese cars Analysis: Chinese automakers defy Henry Ford’s principle Plug-in models drive Brazil’s electric vehicle boom Electrified vehicles gain ground at Brazil’s rental companies Similarly, scenarios developed by the nongovernmental organization ICCT Brazil point to a gradual decline in fuel consumption through 2050, even under a scenario of moderate electrification of the vehicle fleet. “In every study we’ve done, we end up at this point [of declining fuel demand]. Because the greater the penetration of electric vehicles, the more consumption will fall,” said Marcel Martin, director-general of ICCT Brazil. Although still modest in aggregate terms, the erosion of ethanol and gasoline demand is likely to accelerate in Brazil, Citi said. In the bank’s most likely scenario, the volume of ethanol and gasoline “displaced”—that is, fuel that is no longer consumed because of the use of electric and hybrid vehicles—will reach 5 billion liters in 2030, equivalent to 8% of actual demand. By 2040, that share is expected to rise to 14%, or 9 billion liters. “There is already an impact on fuel consumption from these electrified vehicles,” said Gabriel Barra, a Citi analyst who authored the study with Pedro Gama and Pedro Ferreira de Mello. “When we look at the longer-term scenarios, one important point is the penetration we’re seeing in Brazil today: it is high [in terms of] sales of electrified cars,” he added. In July, registrations of electric and hybrid vehicles totaled just over 56,000 units, nearly three times the number sold in the same month of 2025, according to data from the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association (ABVE). As a result, electrified vehicles accounted for 21.1% of total vehicle sales in July. Despite their growing share of new-vehicle sales, electrified vehicles represented only 1.3% of Brazil’s light-vehicle fleet at the end of 2025, according to U.S. consulting firm Integrate Data Facts (IDF). The sales boom is directly related to the decline in electric vehicle prices in Brazil. In 2012, when the first imported electrified car launched in the country, it cost about 8.5 times as much as an internal-combustion vehicle. Today, the difference is about 1.3 times, according to Citi. “Here [in Brazil], what matters is price. So, if a car in the same category is a little cheaper, it sells. That’s what the Chinese are all about,” said Edmar de Almeida, a professor and researcher at the Energy Institute of the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). Of the 15 best-selling electrified car models in Brazil in July, 14 were made by Chinese automakers, according to data compiled by ABVE. Together, the 14 models accounted for nearly 62.5% of sales in the category during the month. Although the import tariff on electrified vehicles assembled outside Brazil rose to 35% in July, Citi does not see tariffs as an obstacle likely to significantly slow the arrival of Chinese cars in the country. This is because quotas were established for completely knocked-down (CKD) and semi-knocked-down (SKD) vehicles. In addition, Chinese automakers are beginning to produce vehicles in Brazil. Another factor weighing on fuel demand is the adoption of electric and hybrid light vehicles by commercial fleets, including taxis and cars used by ride-hailing services. Under Citi’s model, these drivers travel an average of 48,000 kilometers a year, six times more than conventional drivers, who travel 8,000 kilometers a year. “When you have this small level of penetration, but among consumers who drive these cars a lot, the impact is significant. You have a multiplier effect: even though the percentage of the fleet is small, it is amplified by consumption that is much higher than that of the rest of the fleet,” Barra said. A third factor highlighted by Citi analysts is the stagnation in the fuel efficiency of the internal-combustion fleet. The most efficient model among the 10 best-selling vehicles in the country achieved about 16 kilometers per liter around 2016. Today, the figure is approximately 15 kilometers per liter. Taking the weighted average of the 10 market-leading models, fuel efficiency of internal-combustion vehicles improved by about 16% over the seven years through 2016, but by only about 2% over the following nine years. An ICCT study on decarbonizing road transportation projects a significant reduction in energy consumption—particularly gasoline, ethanol, and diesel—under “moderate” (-14.5%) and “ambitious” (-41.5%) electrification scenarios between 2025 and 2050, despite a 27% increase in the size of the vehicle fleet. In the NGO’s view, a moderate scenario would be one in which sales of battery-electric vehicles were in line with those in other Latin American countries, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 28% between 2025 and 2050. The ambitious scenario, meanwhile, is based on the assumption of an accelerated transition to zero-emission vehicles, with a focus on battery-electric models. The transition, however, is far from posing a threat to the fuel industry in either the short or medium term. “Fuel use, whether ethanol or fossil fuel, will continue for a long time. There is a transition, and it won’t happen overnight,” Martin of ICCT Brazil said. According to Citi’s calculations, electrified vehicles would account for 11% of Brazil’s vehicle fleet by 2030 under a scenario in which they represent 37% of new-vehicle sales. As for ethanol, Edmar de Almeida of PUC-Rio sees the possibility of redirecting the product to markets outside the automotive sector. “I don’t believe this will be a long-term problem because ethanol has other markets, especially SAF [sustainable aviation fuel],” the academic said. “If you have excess ethanol, you can convert it into aviation fuel.” The National Union of Fuel and Lubricant Distributors (Sindicom) and Ipiranga declined to comment when contacted about the effects of electrification of Brazil’s light-vehicle fleet on gasoline and ethanol consumption. Vibra said by email that it “is monitoring the evolution of mobility in Brazil and understands that electrification will play an increasingly important role in the coming years.” The company stressed, however, that Brazil’s dynamics differ from those seen in other markets and are likely to be characterized by the coexistence of different technologies and energy solutions. “In the company’s view, demand for liquid fuels will remain relevant in the coming years, reflecting the characteristics of the country’s vehicle fleet, infrastructure, and energy mix,” the fuel distributor said, adding that it invests in initiatives related to electric mobility, such as its private EZVolt charging-station network.