巴西企业债7月回暖401亿雷亚尔，中资发行人仍难获投资者青睐

Bruno Spilberg of SPX says demand for corporate bond is there, just not at the rates they seek Divulgação After nearly four months on hold, Brazil’s corporate bond market began showing its first signs of improvement following a restrictive second quarter, although the recovery remains highly limited and concentrated among lower-risk issuers. This pattern is expected to remain through year-end, with the strongest issuers potentially able to extend the maturities of their bonds. BCA Research downgrades Brazilian assets to ‘sell,’ except for CDS Braskem seeks creditor support for 90-day restructuring extension Public debt reduces space for private debt, pressures investments Issuances totaled R$40.1 billion in July, when banks returned to test the market. Another R$59 billion in offerings were underway, according to a survey by ABC Brasil’s research department. Debentures alone accounted for R$28 billion, 40% above the R$20 billion recorded in June. Another sign of a recovery came from the distribution of offerings. In July, investors absorbed 62% of the securities, the first time the figure had exceeded 60% since February. In previous months, banks had kept a larger share of the issuances in their portfolios as demand retreated. In June, the amount placed in the market was just 46%. In May, it was 42%; in April, 40%; and in March, 47%. The recovery remains selective and concentrated among large companies and issuers with better credit quality. This means investors have shifted toward these assets in what is known as a “flight to quality.” “Institutional and excellent-quality [securities] are selling well. ‘Mid’ and ‘high yield’ [companies with medium and high returns, but greater risks] are struggling,” said a source who requested anonymity. The slowdown in the corporate debt market began in March, following a strong start to the year. A series of corporate events interrupted private-credit funds’ fundraising flows and prompted investors to move into more conservative assets, such as bank securities. With demand reduced, several transactions launched between March and April were not fully absorbed by the market. “Banks ended up acting as a shock absorber during this period of nervousness,” said Samy Podlubny, head of fixed income at UBS BB. According to him, for more than three months, institutions focused their efforts on distributing securities and reducing positions that remained in their portfolios, which limited the launch of new offerings. With much of this inventory already distributed in the secondary market and fund redemptions more stabilized, issuances began to gain traction again. One of the transactions that marked the reopening of the window was that of Axia, formerly Eletrobras. The company raised R$1 billion in early July, of which 99% went to funds and individuals, according to data from the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil’s (CVM) offering-registration system. It later raised another R$2 billion in a separate offering, concentrated among funds. Taesa, ISA Energia Brasil, and Copel also issued debentures during the month. Guilherme Maranhão, Itaú BBA’s head of fixed income, said fund redemptions were absorbed without major disruptions in the secondary market. At the same time, banks managed to reduce the positions accumulated during the period of weaker demand. “There was a period of digesting the transactions that remained on the institutions’ books,” he said. According to Maranhão, the recovery also began to emerge in tax-incentivized debentures, a segment that was hit harder by fund outflows and returned to investors’ radar after the repricing of assets. Recent transactions recorded what was considered strong demand, but the executive stressed that it is still too early to say the window has fully reopened. “The sample is still small.” Companies continue to need to calibrate the price, size, and structure of offerings to attract investors, particularly for lower-quality credits. In this environment, some fundraisings may come with shorter maturities. “Of course, it varies from case to case, but during periods of volatility, it is common for investors seeking to shorten duration to prefer shorter-dated securities,” said Felipe Thut, head of fixed income at Bradesco BBI. The high level of interest rates could also lead companies, particularly those raising funds for infrastructure projects, to initially issue shorter-term debt and subsequently replace it with longer-term transactions if conditions improve. In the first half, the change in investor sentiment and the search for issuers with the highest credit ratings reshaped the corporate debt market. A survey by Quantum Finance for Valor shows that the number of issuers fell significantly while the average size of transactions increased. About 70% of issuances during the period were concentrated in the first three months of the year—those that were already underway before the shock caused by Raízen and GPA, owner of the Pão de Açúcar chain, seeking out-of-court reorganization in March. And the trend, according to Samer Serhan, a partner at JiveMauá, is for the market to remain extremely selective through year-end. “We haven’t seen such a strong search for extremely high-quality assets since 2023 [the year of the Americanas crisis],” he said. According to him, issuers with lower credit assessments have found it more difficult to access investors. The Quantum survey shows that the number of securities fell 34.9% from January to June, while the number of issuers declined 16.9%, from 225 to 187. As a result, the average size of transactions increased 25.9% to R$436.5 million during the period. Tax-exempt bonds on the rise The most emblematic case was Sabesp, which raised R$14.7 billion in the first half, nearly 10% of the total volume issued. The amount was almost twice the R$7.3 billion raised by Ecovias Rio Minas, the largest issuer during the same period in 2025. In February alone, Sabesp raised R$8.58 billion in two transactions linked to the IPCA inflation index, maturing in 2038 and 2041. The concentration among large companies was accompanied by growth in tax-incentivized debentures, which are used to finance infrastructure projects. IPCA-linked securities accounted for 44.4% of the volume issued in the first half, up from 32.7% a year earlier. In monetary terms, they grew 11%, from R$59.8 billion to R$66.5 billion, bucking the market’s contraction. “Infrastructure transactions tend to be larger and more structured, consistent with the financing of projects that are large in scale and have long maturation periods,” Serhan said. Debentures linked to the DI rate remained in the lead, but lost ground during the period. Their share fell from 59.3% to 51.4%, with volume declining 29%, from R$108.3 billion to R$76.9 billion. IPCA-linked issuances averaged R$679 million, nearly twice the R$343 million average for conventional transactions tied to the DI rate. The shift is also reflected in the sectoral breakdown. Electricity, sanitation, and transportation and logistics together accounted for 62% of the volume raised in the first half. Electricity remained virtually unchanged from the previous year, at R$52.9 billion. Sanitation nearly doubled, from R$12 billion to R$23.7 billion, while transportation and logistics generated R$16.9 billion. In the opposite direction, issuances by the financial sector fell approximately 73%, from R$39.9 billion to R$10.6 billion. The market, which in 2025 had strong combined participation from the energy and financial sectors, became more concentrated in infrastructure and regulated services. Serhan highlights that the large number of concessions awarded in recent years, particularly in transportation and urban mobility, has created new financing needs. At the same time, the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) began providing a larger share of the funds allocated to projects, while some investment schedules were extended, reducing the immediate need for fundraising. The greater selectivity is also explained by the mismatch between the rates companies are willing to accept and the returns demanded by investors. Bruno Spilberg, senior credit portfolio manager at SPX, said fund redemptions reduced their capacity to absorb new offerings. At the same time, companies began postponing transactions as buyers demanded higher premiums. “There is demand from companies to issue, but there is no investor appetite at the rates they want,” he said. “Those who can are holding back issuances. Only the obvious names are raising funds.” Guilherme Almeida, head of fixed income at Suno Research, noted that through February, the market had been working with a more favorable outlook for interest-rate cuts. The reversal of that expectation, the steepening of the yield curve and increased volatility prompted companies and investors to adopt greater caution. The dispersion in rates shows the degree of selectivity. According to Almeida, top-tier infrastructure issuers were able to raise funds at rates close to IPCA plus 6.2% a year, while higher-risk transactions reached double-digit rates. Among securities linked to the DI rate, additional spreads ranged from 0.20 to 13.84 percentage points. In July, fund flows also showed some normalization. Private-sector credit funds attracted R$14.4 billion after a string of withdrawals in the first half. Infrastructure funds, meanwhile, recorded net redemptions of R$1.6 billion, below the R$8.7 billion withdrawn in June. Improved fund flows and the reduction in banks’ inventories are helping to reactivate issuances, but they do not yet signal a broad-based recovery. A survey by ABC Brasil of 88 investors shows that 56% expect debenture issuances linked to the CDI rate to grow by at least 10%. For incentivized debentures, 47% project an increase of that magnitude. According to Odilon Costa, who heads the bank’s research division, the more constructive outlook is related to lower expectations for spread widening. Among incentivized debentures, 66% of respondents expect premiums to remain stable or narrow, compared with 21% in the second-quarter survey. Despite the decline in issuances, the secondary market remains liquid. After growing 33.9% in 2025, to R$947.4 billion, trading volume increased 20.6% in the first half of this year, to R$494.6 billion, according to Quantum. In July, trading totaled R$99.5 billion, virtually unchanged from June, according to ABC Brasil. “The market is still healthy; the secondary market is turning over well,” Serhan said. Banks expect issuances to gradually normalize during the second half as investors rebuild their portfolios and institutions resume originating transactions. Among asset managers, however, a more cautious view prevails: as long as interest rates remain high and funds have not fully recovered their fundraising capacity, the reopening is likely to remain concentrated among the highest-quality issuers.