巴西6月经济活动收缩0.64%，二季度GDP增速或减半，中资制造业需警惕需求走弱

ASA economist Leonardo Costa sees growing risk of weaker growth moving forward this year Silvia Zamboni/Valor The Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) disappointed in June by falling 0.64% from May. The indicator ended the second quarter up 0.2%, confirming a scenario of slower growth in the Brazilian economy from April through June, according to economists. Brazil’s services sector stalls as economy shows signs of cooling High interest rates could hinder new housing finance model Brazilian economic growth reached 1.1% in the first quarter of this year compared with the final three months of 2025. Expectations are that second-quarter gross domestic product growth will be half that rate, a scenario that gained strength after the Central Bank released its activity indicator. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) is scheduled to release the GDP figures in two weeks. “We project seasonally adjusted growth of 0.5% for second-quarter GDP, consistent with an economy that remains resilient but is on a gradual moderation path after the strong performance seen at the beginning of 2026. There is also a growing risk of weaker growth this year, with signs of faster deterioration in the credit market and rising delinquencies, which puts a downside bias on the 2% growth projected for 2026,” said Leonardo Costa, an economist at ASA. For the economist, the June IBC-Br result is consistent with a slowdown in activity during the second quarter, particularly given the loss of momentum in services and the sharper contraction in industrial output, which had been growing at a faster pace in the first quarter. The June result was below the median estimate of a 0.5% decline compiled by Valor Data. It fell within the range of forecasts, which called for declines of between 0.8% and 0.3%. The IBC-Br uses a methodology distinct from the national accounts calculated by IBGE. The Central Bank’s monthly indicator allows for more frequent monitoring of economic activity, while quarterly GDP provides a broader picture of the economy. “Overall, the indicator was in line with our expectations, with a 0.5% month-on-month contraction, confirming a slowdown in economic activity from the first quarter to the second,” said Antonio Ricciardi, an economist at Daycoval. June IBC-Br data also showed that agriculture was the only sector to post growth, rising 1% from May, while industry fell 1.4% and services declined 1%. Excluding agriculture, activity contracted 0.9%. The quarterly picture is different: industry grew 0.5% and agriculture 0.3%, while services contracted 0.1%, according to the Central Bank. Ricciardi also noted that the year-over-year increase of 1.5% shows that growth in the second quarter of 2026 was weaker than in the final three months of last year, which had already pointed to a contraction in economic activity. “Recapping the story, we had been slowing down last year, and then we had a stronger first quarter this year, driven mainly by government stimulus, such as income tax exemptions and an increase in the minimum wage. But it appears that in the second quarter we have now returned to the slowdown seen at the end of last year.” The analysis was echoed by André Valério, an economist at Banco Inter, who also noted that the indicator points to an economy that is more dependent on the external sector, particularly agriculture and oil production. “In fact, the IBC-Br implies that, without agriculture, the Brazilian economy would have contracted 0.9% in June. This dynamic can be seen in IBGE’s sectoral data. Industry advanced 0.35% in the second quarter according to the IBGE survey, heavily influenced by the extractive sector. Services advanced 0.4%, but we see the services sector as heavily dependent on IT activities. This year, 60% of the sector’s growth has come from this activity,” Valério said in a statement. The Inter economist also highlighted that expanded retail sales, which are more relevant to GDP calculations and include vehicles, motorcycles, parts and construction materials, contracted 0.95% in the second quarter, indicating that “more adverse financial conditions have been an obstacle to the dynamics of economic activity.” Regarding the importance of agriculture to Brazilian economic activity, the Daycoval economist noted that although the sector improved, with year-over-year growth of 2.5%, the pace of expansion remains insufficient to drive growth as it did last year. “Despite an upward revision to this year’s harvest, particularly the corn crop, agriculture will not post growth strong enough to drive economic activity this year, becoming another component of the broader structure of weaker activity in 2026,” Ricciardi said. Economists said the June IBC-Br data, which showed a lower-than-expected level of economic activity during the month, should support the continuation of the Central Bank’s cycle of Selic rate cuts. The benchmark rate currently stands at 14%. Even so, the monetary authority is expected to maintain the cautious tone seen in its latest statements. “The June data reinforces the possibility of an additional 0.25 percentage-point adjustment if the next inflation and activity figures also point to a consistent slowdown. Even so, our baseline scenario remains for the Selic to stay at 14%. What has changed in recent weeks is that the probability of another cut has increased as activity indicators have shown a clearer slowdown than previously observed,” said Leonardo Costa, an economist at ASA. Costa said the “GDP preview” helps reinforce the narrative of slowing domestic demand, but cautioned that the Central Bank does not react to a single indicator and usually emphasizes that its decisions depend on the overall set of data. “The IBC-Br moved in the direction expected by the Monetary Policy Committee, by indicating moderation in economic activity, and therefore contributes to a scenario that could justify continuing the monetary easing cycle,” he said. The assessment was echoed by Claudio Considera, an associate researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre), who said the monetary authority should continue easing the Selic rate, but at a cautious pace. “It will remain cautious, particularly in view of the global scenario, with the war involving Iran, the Strait of Hormuz still under watch and the U.S. economy not doing well. Our exports to the U.S. will be reduced, and that is also important for our growth,” the economist said. Meanwhile, Ibre’s GDP Monitor indicated 0.3% GDP growth in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year, when growth reached 1.1%. Considera attributed part of the slowdown to agriculture, since much of the harvest is collected at the beginning of the year, which tends to push the indicator higher. “Annual growth has been strongly driven by agriculture and the economy is weaker, but not as much as people believe. There are a number of difficulties related to Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, which have created greater challenges for exports and imports. The economy has reduced its growth rate, but it is not a disaster. Ibre projects growth of 1.8% this year, similar to what happened last year,” he said. The researcher also said the electoral calendar should help economic growth because of campaign spending.