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马托格罗索15年田间试验:大豆后种玉米单产高26%,在巴中资农场可借鉴

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Corn planting after soybean harvest boosts oilseed yields, study finds

巴西15年田间试验证实,大豆-玉米轮作较单作平均单产高26%,肥料成本更低、干旱韧性更强。在巴中资农场可借鉴该模式,提升收益并规避气候风险。

为什么值得关注

行业趋势:15年田间试验证实轮作系统单产高26%、成本更低,直接影响在巴中资农场种植决策。

巴西马托格罗索州伊蒂基拉(Itiquira)一项历时15个作物年度(2008/09至2022/23)的田间试验显示,大豆收获后种植玉米等轮作系统,较单一大豆单作可显著提高单产、降低肥料成本并增强气候韧性。该研究由Agroicone、坎皮纳斯大学(Unicamp)和马托格罗索基金会(Fundação Mato Grosso)联合开展,对比了五种大豆生产系统。数据显示,大豆-玉米轮作平均单产65.89袋/公顷(60公斤/袋),较免耕单作(52.15袋/公顷)高约26%;在干旱年份,轮作系统单产仍接近50袋/公顷,而单作系统可降至20袋/公顷以下。对于在巴西从事大豆种植的中资企业,这一结论为优化种植制度、对冲极端天气风险提供了可量化的决策依据。

该研究在巴西最大大豆产区马托格罗索州进行,试验持续15个作物年度,比较了五种生产系统:两种单作(免耕和常规耕作)和三种轮作(大豆-玉米、大豆-臂形草、大豆-小米),所有系统施用相同肥料。关键结果显示,轮作系统的大豆平均单产显著高于单作:大豆-玉米轮作为65.89袋/公顷,大豆-臂形草轮作为66.47袋/公顷,而免耕单作和常规耕作单作分别为52.15袋/公顷和54.36袋/公顷。整个试验期间的最高单产也来自轮作系统——2018/19年度大豆-玉米轮作达到91.74袋/公顷。在干旱年份(如2014/15和2020/21),单作系统部分小区单产降至20袋/公顷以下,而轮作系统仍保持接近50袋/公顷。肥料成本方面,轮作系统平均更低:大豆-臂形草为9.25美元/袋,大豆-玉米为9.28美元/袋,而免耕单作和常规耕作单作分别为10.22美元/袋和10.07美元/袋。盈利能力上,大豆-玉米轮作在2011/12、2020/21和2021/22年度利润峰值超过30美元/袋。

对于在巴中资农业企业,该研究直接涉及大豆种植环节,影响采购、生产成本和风险管理。尽管底稿未明确提及中资企业,但通过以下机制间接传导:首先,若中资农场位于马托格罗索等热带农业区,采用轮作系统可降低化肥采购成本(每袋节省约1美元)并提高单产,直接改善项目回报;其次,轮作系统通过覆盖作物改善土壤管理,提高水分和养分利用效率,有助于应对巴西日益频繁的干旱事件,减少保险赔付风险;第三,第二季玉米带来额外收入,并分摊机械、劳动力和土地融资等固定成本,对中资企业的资本配置效率有积极影响。巴西农业监管机构MAPA(农业、畜牧业和供应部)和Embrapa(巴西农业研究公司)历来推广可持续种植系统,该研究为相关政策提供科学依据,中资企业可关注后续政策导向。

CBI解读:底稿数据表明,轮作系统在15年间保持更高且更稳定的产量,且肥料成本更低,这并非短期偶然。CBI认为,该研究为在巴中资农场提供了可复制的技术路径:大豆-玉米轮作不仅提升单产,还通过增加土壤有机质、改善水分渗透、刺激有益微生物、破坏病虫害循环等累积效应,降低长期生产风险。值得注意的是,试验中所有系统施用相同肥料,因此产量差异完全归因于种植制度,这增强了结论的可靠性。横向对比,巴西农业界近年已有多项研究支持多样化种植,但本研究的15年连续数据在热带地区尤为稀缺,对中资企业制定长期土地投资计划具有参考价值。

待观察:一是该研究是否会被MAPA或州政府纳入农业推广政策,形成补贴或技术指导;二是马托格罗索州2024/25年度大豆-玉米轮作的种植面积变化,可作为市场采纳度的指标;三是化肥价格波动下,轮作系统的成本优势是否进一步扩大,可跟踪巴西主要化肥指数。

CBI 观察编辑判断

底稿显示轮作系统在15年间平均单产显著高于单作,且干旱年份表现更稳定,肥料成本更低。CBI认为,这一长期试验数据为在巴中资农场提供了可量化的技术升级路径,尤其在极端天气频发的背景下,轮作系统可作为风险对冲工具。

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信息概要

类型
行业趋势
方向
巴西
分类
宏观市场
层级
编辑整理
地点
在巴中资农业企业、巴西大豆种植户、农业投资者
核验
待核验
对象
在巴中资农业企业农业投资者农场管理者
话题
行业趋势

来源信息

来源
Valor International
原文标题
Corn planting after soybean harvest boosts oilseed yields, study finds
原始语言
英语
原文链接
查看原文 →
编辑
Clara Lin
查看原文(英语

Corn planting after soybean harvest boosts oilseed yields, study finds

Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso; a study showed that fertilizer costs decrease when soybean cultivation is followed by the planting of other crops Rodolfo Perdigão/Secom-MT Farmers who grow soybeans followed by corn in the same crop year achieve higher soybean yields, greater financial returns, and greater climate resilience than those who rely solely on soybean monocropping, according to a study by Agroicone, Unicamp, and Fundação Mato Grosso. EU mission to assess Brazil’s poultry, honey companies U.S. measure on beef could benefit Brazil According to the authors, the research confirms what many farmers had already observed. What was still lacking, however, was a scientific basis demonstrating the gains regardless of weather conditions in a given crop year. “This dataset shows that sequential cropping systems fundamentally improve the agronomic and economic performance of tropical agroecosystems compared with continuous monocropping,” said Luciane Chiodi Bachion, the study’s lead researcher and a partner at Agroicone. The experiment covered 15 consecutive crop years, from 2008/09 through 2022/23, in Itiquira, Mato Grosso, in tropical soil and a climate with a dry season from June to August. Five soybean production systems were grown side by side in four experimental blocks, with the treatments repeated each season: two monocropping systems, no-till and conventional, and three crop-sequencing systems, in which soybeans were followed by corn, brachiaria, or millet. The same amount of fertilizer was applied to soybeans in all systems. The study found that the highest yields came from the crop-sequencing systems. Over the 15 crop years, soybeans followed by corn averaged 65.89 60-kilogram bags per hectare, while the soybean-brachiaria sequence averaged 66.47 bags. Monocropping systems produced lower averages: 52.15 bags per hectare under no-till and 54.36 bags per hectare under conventional tillage. “In addition to the higher average, the sequential systems also fluctuated less from year to year over the 15 crop seasons. That stability helps protect farmers from weather variations between seasons,” said Sofia Arantes, a researcher at Agroicone. The gap between monocropping and sequential systems widened precisely during the driest years, in the 2014/15 and 2020/21 crop seasons. In those years, soybean yields under monocropping fell below 20 bags per hectare in some experimental blocks, while sequential systems maintained yields close to 50 bags. The highest yield in the entire period analyzed also came from a sequential system: 91.74 bags per hectare in the soybean-corn system in the 2018/19 crop season. The same amount of fertilizer was applied across all five systems, which researchers said isolates the effect of crop sequencing on costs. Fertilizer accounts for 40% of soybean production costs, making it a significant component of farmers’ expenses. From the 2009/10 through 2022/23 crop seasons, systems alternating soybeans with brachiaria and corn had the lowest average fertilizer costs among all systems, at $9.25 per bag and $9.28 per bag, respectively. By comparison, the average fertilizer cost for soybeans under no-till monocropping was $10.22 per bag, while the cost under conventional tillage was $10.07 per bag. The average cost peaked at $16.26 per bag for soybeans under conventional tillage in the 2014/15 crop season. According to Bachion, soil management provided by cover crops improved water and nutrient-use efficiency and increased soybean yields in the sequential systems. “Even with the same amount of fertilizer applied, diversified systems have a lower cost per unit of soybeans produced and generate higher economic returns. The combination of these factors explains how diversified systems achieve lower costs even when receiving the same amount of fertilizer during the soybean phase,” she added. Profitability was also higher in the sequential systems. The best result among the five systems came from the soybean-corn rotation, with peaks above $30 per bag in the 2011/12, 2020/21 and 2021/22 crop seasons. According to the researchers, income increases because of higher soybean yields as well as additional revenue from the second corn crop. In addition, growing corn spreads fixed costs for machinery, labor, and land financing across the two crops. The study also highlights several soil benefits from planting corn after soybeans, including increased organic matter, improved water infiltration, stimulation of beneficial microorganisms, and disruption of pest and disease cycles associated with monocropping. “These benefits are cumulative and may explain why sequential systems maintained higher and more stable yields throughout the 15-year experiment,” said Luís Guilherme Furlan de Abreu, a researcher at Unicamp.

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