Study measures Brazil’s low social mobility
Paulo Tafner
Leo Pinheiro/Valor
In Brazil, where income inequality remains deeply entrenched, social mobility for children from low-income families is also limited. Children born into the poorest 25% of households have only an 8.3% chance of reaching the wealthiest 25% in adulthood, while just 1.3% make it into the top 10% of income earners. At the same time, they have a 48% probability of remaining in the poorest 25%.
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By contrast, children born into the top 25% of the income distribution have a 54.5% chance of remaining in that group and a 30.9% probability of moving into the top 10% of earners.
The findings are part of the latest edition of the Social Mobility Atlas, a data platform developed by the Institute for Social Mobility and Development (Imds) in partnership with Prospera Lab.
The study tracked the trajectories of children born between 1983 and 1990, comparing their parents’ income group with the children’s earnings as adults aged 25 to 29. The analysis draws on data from multiple sources, including the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad Contínua) conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service, and the Ministries of Labor and Social Development.
“Brazilian society is, unfortunately, a closed society. Education is a fundamental driver of social mobility. In Brazil, educational access has improved, but learning outcomes remain very weak. Increased spending on education has not translated into better quality,” said economist Paulo Tafner, chief executive of Imds, which he co-founded with former Central Bank President Arminio Fraga.
In a second analysis, researchers divided the group born between 1983 and 1990 into two subgroups (1983-1987 and 1988-1990) to assess changes in social mobility over time. The figures show some improvement in the chances of upward mobility, but they remain low, according to Tafner.
“When the two subgroups are compared, it is possible to see that mobility increased slightly, by an amount that is statistically significant, but it is still very low. We continue to see limited opportunities for upward mobility.”
In this comparison, those born into the poorest 25% in the older group had a 7.9% probability of reaching the wealthiest 25%. Among the younger group, that figure rose to 8.8%. Meanwhile, for children from families already in the top 25% of the income distribution, the probability of remaining there declined from 58.9% to 53.9%, respectively.
Well-known inequality factors such as gender, race, and place of birth also weigh heavily on the likelihood of upward mobility. Among white young adults born into the poorest 25% of families, 36.3% remain in that income group as adults. Among non-white individuals, that figure rises to 51.6%. When considering the same poorest 25% of households, 32.9% of sons remain in the same income bracket in adulthood, while among daughters the share is nearly twice as high, at 65.1%.
“Those well-known sociodemographic characteristics have a decisive impact on social mobility,” said the Imds chief executive.
According to Tafner, women’s lower participation in the labor market limits their opportunities for upward mobility. “Brown and Black people also experience lower mobility. Their average educational attainment is lower, and their earnings are lower as well, largely because of that educational gap. That limits mobility,” he noted.
Regionally, Acre is the state where children born into the poorest 25% of households are most likely to remain in that same income group as adults, with a probability of 61.6%. Overall, in 14 Brazilian states—all located in the North and Northeast—more than half of children born into the poorest quarter of the population are likely to remain in that lowest-income group.
The Social Mobility Atlas platform also provides data on 38 socioeconomic indicators for Brazilian municipalities that can be correlated with social mobility across five dimensions: education, health, the economy, society, and public spending.
Check the full study here (in Portuguese): atlasmobilidadesocial.org.br
