{"editorial":{"content_id":"c177cae6-ea09-4ca9-b6c7-95121b9213ba","slug":"prediction-lab-001-segundo-turno-2026","content_type":"insight","title":"CBI Prediction Lab #001 揭晓:封存的巴西第二轮预测","summary":"中午我们只公开了一份预测文件的 SHA-256 指纹。TSE 已统计 99.94% 的票箱(尚未标为最终结果),现在公开文件;TSE 完成统计后我们再核一遍数字,如有出入公开更正。","body":"中午我们只公开了一份预测文件的 SHA-256 指纹。TSE 已统计 99.94% 的票箱(截至圣保罗时间 25/10/2026 21:46,尚未标为最终结果),现在公开文件;TSE 完成统计后我们再核一遍数字,如有出入公开更正。\n\n**我们预测的(有效票)**\n- 胜者:弗拉维奥·博索纳罗。\n- 全国:弗拉维奥 51.2% · 卢拉 48.8%,票差 2.4 个百分点。\n- 圣保罗州弗拉维奥 56.5% · 米纳斯吉拉斯州弗拉维奥 52.0% · 巴伊亚州卢拉 68.5%。\n\n**TSE 计票结果(已统计 99.94% 票箱)**:卢拉胜,有效票 51.78%,票差 3.56 个百分点。\n\n**按事先定好的规则算误差**\n- 胜者:错。\n- 全国票差误差:5.96 个百分点。\n- 圣保罗州:预测 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗 56.5%;实际 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗 53.85% · 胜者对 · 误差 2.65 个百分点。\n- 米纳斯吉拉斯州:预测 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗 52.0%;实际 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗 49.61% · 胜者错 · 误差 2.39 个百分点。\n- 巴伊亚州:预测 卢拉 68.5%;实际 卢拉 71.32% · 胜者对 · 误差 2.82 个百分点。\n- 三州平均误差:2.62 个百分点。\n\n**怎么验证**:下载原始文件 https://storage.googleapis.com/cbi-ai-hero-421074762851/prediction-lab/001/prediction-001-sealed.md,计算 SHA-256(Mac/Linux:shasum -a 256 prediction-001-sealed.md),应等于 9ed330de6cecf4926f1bf7b6150a555dd74d68db96cdd2e4d9a60428f49d22fc。文件中的随机字符为 8ba614c8c1f6aa18217be8037c613e2f8f60d2274e161be1128d433622bdfc61。\n\n方法:一半看首轮票源转移(TSE 官方首轮数据),一半看投票前最后两份 TSE 登记民调(Datafolha BR-09540/2026、AtlasIntel BR-06380/2026)。明天发复盘:哪里判断对了、哪里错了。\n\n本实验是独立分析与方法验证,不是选举民意调查,未进行任何选民抽样或问卷采集。","why_it_matters":null,"cbi_observation":null,"direction_tag":null,"primary_category":null,"secondary_topics":[],"content_level":"编辑整理","event_type":null,"audience_tags":[],"event_location":null,"verification_status":"unverified","published_at":"2026-10-26T00:49:20.464Z","display_date":null,"source_published_at":null,"source_url":"https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/ele2026/6258/dados/br/br-c0001-e006258-u.json","source_name":"TSE · Resultados oficiais, 2º turno 2026 (eleição 6258)","source_language":null,"author_name":"编辑部","risk_level":"low","risk_flags":[],"opportunity_flags":[],"trend_signals":[]},"intelligence":null,"meta":{"canonical_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com/insights/prediction-lab-001-segundo-turno-2026","api_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com/api/public/content/prediction-lab-001-segundo-turno-2026","markdown_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com/api/public/content/prediction-lab-001-segundo-turno-2026?view=markdown","json_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com/api/public/content/prediction-lab-001-segundo-turno-2026?view=json","last_updated":"2026-10-26T00:49:20.464Z","platform":"China Brazil Insight","platform_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com"}}